As soon as the stock market is in turmoil, fund managers become inspirational masters
Author | Xue Yaping
Edit | Zhao Jinjie
Source | Packed Lunch Finance (ID:daxiongfan)
"When imagining something painful that could happen, the feeling is no less than real pain." In the face of the plummeting fund market, Zhang Kun, the top of the 100 billion fund, began to incarnate as a chicken soup master, and Ji Min revealed his heart.
Following a collective apology to Ji Min last year, the fund manager began to work again, this time collectively boiling chicken soup.
With the release of the first quarter report of the fund in April, the fund market is in mourning. Ji Min can cover his eyes and pretend he can't see anything, but the fund manager can't. In addition to professional market and market analysis, they need to find ways to stabilize the hearts of the market and the people.
You will find that usually these fund managers who read "Poor Charlie's Treasure Book", "Pattern" and "Black Swan" not only need to be self-relieved, but also begin to boil bowls of chicken soup to the outside world, move to the basic people to understand the reason, talk about "anxiety", talk about "fear" and "optimism", discuss values with you, and carry out "language art therapy".
The fund market in 2022 started with a miserable start. According to the Shanghai Securities News, data from Tianxiang Investment Advisory showed that the overall loss of public funds in the first quarter of this year was 1.33 trillion yuan. It is worth noting that the overall profit of public funds last year was 727.3 billion.
The former hundreds of billions of fund managers have also begun to abdicate one by one. Whether it is Zhang Kun, the "top 100 billion" or Liu Yanchun, Ge Lan, Hou Hao, who is regarded as a member of the "100 billion fund managers club" by Jimin, none of them are spared. Wind data shows that as of the first quarter of this year, the management funds of Zhang Kun, Liu Yanchun, Ge Lan and Hou Hao have fallen below 100 billion yuan, with 84.928 billion yuan, 74.836 billion yuan, 96.148 billion yuan and 93.019 billion yuan respectively.
There is even a ranking of well-known public fund managers predicting the returns of well-known public fund managers this year: Zhang Kun -55%, Qu Yang -55%, Liu Yanchun -54%, Cai Songsong -50%, Glen -43%, Liu Gesong -42%...
In fact, affected by the adjustment of A-shares after the Spring Festival this year, the fund market has not seen a good start. Some financial bloggers have blogged that the circle of friends after the Spring Festival is basically fund managers sending a variety of chicken soup for the soul. With the further downturn in the market in March, some people predict that investors will most likely receive a variety of chicken soup for the soul, not only fund managers, but also tripartite sales platforms, as well as the wealth management departments of major banks, the core is a sentence: confidence is more expensive than gold, and one day it will rise back.
Sure enough, in the face of the tragic status quo of the fund market, these hundreds of billions of fund managers transformed into chicken soup masters in an instant, cai Songsong, Ge Lan, Jiao Wei, Fu Pengbo and other people stood up and told the basic people to stick to it and not to be afraid. Zhang Kun even used the "brain theory" from a biological point of view to explain why the people would be hurt in the stock market, and proposed the following introspective solution:
1, my fear, is it from the decline in stock prices, or from the negative changes in fundamentals?
2. Does the initial investment reason no longer exist?
3, the stock price is lower, as a long-term net buyer, I should not be happier, right?
The above three soul questions are no less than the three questions that Lu Xiucai taught Gongsun Wulong to dissolve the killing qi- is the other party here to seek revenge? Will the other person hurt themselves? Does the other party have to die? Although the content is different, it is essentially hoped that people will calm themselves down when the impulsive emotions come.
"The brain is born to perceive trends".
In illustrating that it is difficult for investors to realize the question of whether this stock continues to rise, Zhang Kun uses brain theory to explain the reasons for jimin.
"Some of the properties in our brains are detrimental to investment, for example, the rationally analyzed part (cerebral cortex) is much weaker than the sensory and emotional systems (amygdalas and insula, etc.). When processing information, the sensory system tends to take over at the first time, requiring considerable energy and time to take over with a rational analysis system. ”
Zhang Kun also used dopamine release to explain the anxiety and satisfaction of the base people. Zhang Kun said that if a stock rises for three consecutive days, people will automatically have a premonition that the fourth day will rise, and if the stock really rises on the fourth day, dopamine will be released and people will have a sense of satisfaction.
Source: E Fangda Blue Chip First Quarter 2022 Report
How can you avoid investing in these characteristics of the brain? Zhang Kun believes that calm acceptance is the premise of maintaining a peaceful mentality, and when faced with the decline of stocks, it takes time and restraint to calm down and issue the "three questions of the soul" to himself.
Zhang Kun is not the only one who has become a philosopher to boil chicken soup. Zhu Shaoxing, who is known as the "investment evergreen tree" in the industry, comforted investors and encouraged, "If you look at a longer time dimension, it is no longer meaningful to be overly pessimistic about the market." ”
Jiao Wei, who has been in the industry for more than 20 years, wrote nearly 2,000 words of "reflection" in a quarterly report, and he believes that mistakes can no longer be blamed on the impact of natural disasters and uncertainties, and need to be reviewed and adjusted from actions.
Comparing A-shares to "jungles" and "large consumer investments, growth investments, value investments and cyclical investments" to "animal limbs", and saying, "The less dependent support torso, the more powerful it is in attack, but the more it lacks protection in a state of disaster." Jiao Wei bluntly said that his first quarterly report is a re-examination handbook between confessions and confessions, and also explains the investment operation from a psychological point of view, "In difficult moments, pessimists can be fully prepared because they do not blindly wait optimistically, and optimists face deviations beyond optimistic expectations and psychological collapse." ”
Yang Ruiwen, the manager of the tens of billions of funds, also presented a 4,000-word "long article" in a quarterly report, in addition to a frank apology for the first quarter of the drawdown, elaborated on the professional market analysis, but also specifically mentioned, "Every time to the market self-doubt, this market will bottom", and finally encouraged the people, "In the face of the future waves, we strive to stabilize the rudder and break the waves forward." ”
It's not just fund managers who are good at boiling chicken soup in the stock market downturn.
On April 25, the Shanghai index opened low and walked low, falling below 3,000 points during the session, refreshing the new low since July 2020. Economist Li Daxiao sent a microblog to remind investors that life is more important than stocks, "When the market is pessimistic, we must pay attention to life, family, and body are always more important than stocks." Don't despair, encourage each other, support each other, family care and friends help is especially important. ”
Further than Li Daxiao, the economist Ren Zeping, bluntly said that he has transformed into an "emotional blogger".
Since March this year, some netizens have found that Ren Zeping, who returned from the ban on Weibo, began to chat with netizens on social platforms such as Weibo, video numbers and public accounts about family, marriage and life.
For example, "Happiness is to find a warm person to live a lifetime", "A woman's best dowry is a considerate and warm heart, a man's best dowry is a lifetime of accommodation and love", "It is good to live your own time, cherish the family and friends around you"...
Perhaps worried that some people can't sleep because of the poor economic situation, Ren Zeping also very intimately instructed, "develop the habit of reading every day, buy a few famous books, read a few pages before going to sleep every night, you will sleep more soundly", and sometimes incarnate philosophers to chat about some life topics, for example, "The true meaning of life is to live for yourself, not to compare with others" "Life is impermanent, sometimes up and down" and so on.
From Zhang Kun to Ren Zeping, an interesting common point is that in the face of the huge drawdown in investment, these once excellent investment masters have begun to transform into life encouragement masters. This phenomenon has also been staged many times in history.
In 1987, when the US stock market crashed, Peter Lynch, the American securities fund manager who had many believers in the Chinese fund industry, managed more than $10 billion of Magellan funds, losing up to $2 billion a day, in the face of such a situation, he would be afraid, but even so, he still advised everyone to "not throw out all the stocks because of panic"; at that time, Soros's quantum fund lost 650 million to 800 million US dollars, and Soros would also say, "Mistakes are not shameful, The shameful thing is that the error is already obvious and not fixed... Remember not to make a desperate bet. ”
As a well-known investment guru, Munger, who studies the psychology of misjudgment, will also tell us, "You need to be patient, disciplined, and not crazy even if you suffer losses and face adversity." ”
Why play these emotional cards to investors? Ren Zeping's sentence can be explained accordingly, "Macro is data, micro is how many families are sad and happy." ”
Looking back at several major economic downturns in history, whether it is the Great Depression of the 1930s, the Asian financial crisis of 1997, and the global financial crisis of 2008, in the face of disasters and panic, economic pressures have caused psychological harm and material losses, and there are many examples of unemployment, suicide, crime and family breakdown.
Luo Weidong, a domestic scholar of Adam Smith, said in his translation of "The Theory of Moral Sentiments" that one of Smith's concerns is the extent to which our human moral judgments will be affected by aesthetics and interests, and why will the situation of putting the cart before the horse occur? Luo Weidong added that wealth is originally only a means for human beings to achieve a happy life, but people often let money dominate their own destiny. In many human experiences, it is very common to change the master into a slave and oppose the servant as the master.
If boiling chicken soup is to appease the basic people, then the repurchase is a necessary action for fund managers and fund companies to enhance the confidence of the basic people.
Public fund managers often prefer to buy back out of their own pockets rather than see the withdrawal of the base people, because more important than profit and loss, it is more important to have confidence in the fund manager. A securities investment consultant once said that once this confidence is frustrated, it will not only affect the issuance and fundraising, but also affect the redemption of the existing fund. Once the redemption wave is triggered, the fund can only passively sell, which is even worse.
For example, Gülen, known as the "goddess of medicine", surpassed Zhang Kun to become the new top in the fourth quarter of last year, and also bought back his own fund out of his own pocket in the first quarter of this year.
On January 26, ceio fund issued an announcement that in addition to the company's own funds to subscribe for 50 million yuan, fund manager Gülen will also purchase a total of 2 million yuan of CEIBS medical and health hybrid and CEIBS medical innovation stocks, and hold them for more than three years.
At the same time, fund managers, including Cui Chenlong and Qiu Dongrong, have also participated in self-purchases. Also full of sincerity is Yang Ruiwen. According to china fund newspaper, on March 28, Yang Ruiwen admitted when he was a guest in the live broadcast room that in addition to the necessary costs of life, he almost fully positioned his own fund, and his fund was also in a high position. "I'm an optimist and I don't think the sky is going to fall. If the sky falls, the money doesn't matter. ”
In addition to fund managers, since the beginning of this year, major fund companies have also entered a wave of self-purchase climax. China Fund News reported that since January this year, major companies have opened buybacks. On January 26, well-known domestic institutions, such as Eastern European Funds, Huaan Funds, Hui Tianfu, E Fangda, etc., all launched repurchases around the Spring Festival. Subsequently, Tianhong Fund, Ruiyuan and BOCOM Schroder also launched a buyback. According to incomplete statistics, in less than three months this year, 55 public fund managers have purchased a total amount of more than 2.15 billion yuan, the highest level in the same period of history.
The Economic Reference Newspaper has analyzed that the self-purchase of funds generally occurs in the market decline range, but self-purchase does not mean that the market bottom has appeared, and the real market bottom is often slightly later than the peak period of self-purchase, and the self-purchase representative institution has a confidence in the long-term health and stability of the capital market, which helps to stabilize market sentiment.
Next, what new tricks fund companies and fund managers can make is not yet known, but recently, the CSRC issued a document to promote the high-quality development of the public fund industry, mentioning the need to reverse the development model of over-reliance on "star fund managers" and guide fund managers to adhere to the concept of long-term investment and value investment.
Resources:
"The fiercest in the same period of history! 55 public offerings purchased more than 2.15 billion yuan", China Fund News
"The "100 billion fund manager club" has fallen, and the top Zhang Kun issued three questions for the soul" Red Star Capital Bureau
"A share deep V rebound! The "Goddess of Medicine" suddenly announced that she would buy her own fund out of her own pocket for 2 million! The company is even more ambitious: out of 50 million" daily economic news
"Reproducing fund repurchases, 54 funds buy back 2 billion yuan, the impact of previous fund repurchase waves on the stock market" half an acre of Fangtang talks about macro
"What to do when the fund falls sharply See how several investment masters respond" Flush Finance