"The wife remarried, the son took someone else's surname, the house was sold, and continued to copy the bottom."
Today, the A-share market has adjusted sharply, with all three major indexes down more than 5%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell below the 3,000-point integer mark to close at 2928.51, a new two-year low. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 5.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 6.08 percent, and the ChiNext Index was down 5.56 percent.
In the midst of mourning, eight topics such as "Shanghai index fell below 3,000 points", "A shares", "funds", "large market", "two thousand shares fell more than 9%", "Shanghai Composite Index" and "stock market" have successively appeared on Weibo hot searches.
The market sentiment is depressed, and the shareholders are happy in pain, and they have sacrificed their means.
"Love you alone into the whole warehouse, love the way you smashed me, love you face each other desperately, and refuse to throw it." Love your sparse volume, a few years on the Dragon and Tiger list, love you and I are so similar, the gap can not be filled. Go? Deserve it! The dream of the earth and the sky. Cut? Cut! Take the pain at the lowest point. To the dragon head and the dream in that theme, who said that the price of the track will not be lost. ”
Even Li Daxiao has "put up his life" and advised the vast number of shareholders to "handle family relations well" and "life is more important than stocks, and health is more important than stocks."
1. Why did A shares fall sharply?
On April 25, more than 4,600 shares in the two cities fell, only 148 rose, and more than 1,900 shares in the two cities fell by more than 9%, and various industries fell. Among them, nonferrous metals, military industry, media, electronics, new energy and other growth sectors led the decline.
The screen is full of green, and all the plates are suffering in an all-round way, what happened? Analysts have a wide range of opinions, but generally believe that the decline is mainly driven by panic.
Hu Xiaohui, general manager of the Wenzhou business department of Fed Securities, believes that the market's concerns mainly come from three aspects:
The first is the emergence of new epidemics in some cities.
The second is the problem of funds, since the beginning of this year, the funds in the market have continued to flow out, the scale of financing and margin has continued to decline, and the issuance of funds has been pre-cooled. Coupled with the recent continuous depreciation of the renminbi, the depreciation today is relatively large, and the market is worried about the continued capital outflow affecting the stock market.
In the absence of incremental funds entering the market, it is difficult for the stock market to stabilize, and the financing order will face the risk of a stop-loss order, which will bring more pressure to the market.
Finally, there is the geopolitical conflict, where the market fears that we will be implicated and affected.
Fu Peng, chief economist of Northeast Securities, talked about the sharp decline in A-shares from another angle, he pulled the timeline to 2021, bluntly saying that the market has diverged since October last year, and he has expected this year's market.
In his view, panic is the surface, and the most fundamental reason is that the main factor that has driven the market up in the past two years has begun to fade. Whether it is the Internet bubble, the 2008 financial crisis, or the epidemic, it has brought the same effect. Once the liquidity factor begins to fade, the focus becomes on observing whether the rate of return on the economy is sufficient.
Before the Spring Festival, the market expectation is relatively benign, although the cost of liabilities is expected to rise, but everyone believes that the asset side can support the rate of return. However, after the Spring Festival, everyone found that the repeated impact of the epidemic was still intensifying. At the same time, the market does not have much means to deal with the weakening of the demand side. Therefore, the expectations on the asset side are not good, the cost of the liability side is rising, and the pessimism is superimposed, and the market pressure is further increased.
Some private equity people in interviews believe that the sell-off caused by the fund's fall to the warning line and stop loss line has also caused a certain impact.
According to 21st Century Business Herald, with the stock market correction, industry insiders estimate that on April 25, a number of private placements were hit at the early warning line (generally considered 0.8 yuan), and even the stop loss line (generally considered to be 0.7 yuan).
2, a number of 100 billion market value leading stocks were smashed
Under the big fall, the stock prices of many leading companies with large market value fell sharply, and even fell to a halt, including some companies with a market value of 100 billion yuan.
For example, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, a leader in the pharmaceutical sector, was held by 1536 institutions when its stock price reached a new high in 2020. However, in 2021, the pharmaceutical sector is lower, and the factors of superimposed performance downturn, Hengrui Pharmaceutical's stock price has been declining, and the market value has evaporated by 400 billion yuan.
By Friday evening, Hengrui Pharmaceutical handed over the "worst report card" since its listing for 21 years, which had caused investors to be pessimistic, and in the context of today's overall sharp decline in A-shares, Hengrui Pharmaceutical bore the brunt of it, losing the market value of 200 billion yuan.
In 2021, Hengrui Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 25.906 billion yuan, down 6.59% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 4.53 billion yuan, down 28.41% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, Hengrui Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 5.479 billion yuan, down 20.93% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to the mother of 1.237 billion yuan, down 17.35% year-on-year.
It is worth noting that according to the annual report data disclosed by the fund company, the CeIBS Medical and Health Hybrid Fund managed by Gülen once again held 34.5259 million shares of Hengrui Pharmaceutical in the fourth quarter, with a stock market value of 1.751 billion.
Not only Hengrui Pharmaceutical, but also China Merchants Bank was smashed today, the main reason is that last week China Merchants Bank issued an announcement that according to the information disclosed on the website of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission on April 22, 2022, Tian Huiyu, former party secretary and president of China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as the company), is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, and is currently under disciplinary review and supervision and investigation by the State Supervision Commission of the Central Discipline Inspection Commission.
The announcement said that at present, Wang Liang, executive vice president of the company, presides over the work of China Merchants Bank, and the company's operation and management are normal. The Company is not supposed to disclose undisclosed information.
In addition, LONGi shares and Catalpin times ended their unpleasant today with a sharp decline of 8.69% and 6.08% respectively.
Both are big bull stocks in recent years, but since November last year, their stock prices have begun to fall after reaching their highest point, and as of today's close, LONGi shares and CATL have fallen by 42.05% and 40.71% respectively from the highest points.
The sharp decline in these two stocks is also related to its own negative news.
LONGi shares are deeply involved in the storm of the chairman's secret reduction, although the previous LONGi shares issued an announcement clarifying that the chairman handled securities non-transaction transfer business due to the division of family property, and there was no window period illegal reduction and information disclosure violations, but it still stimulated the panic of investors.
The Ningde era is because of the postponement of the release of a quarterly report.
Among the stocks with a market value of more than 200 billion, leading stocks such as Great Wall Motor and Ewell Lithium Energy have fallen significantly in the past period of time, and today they also ended with a sharp decline of 7.31% and 9.24% respectively.
In this way, the leading stocks were smashed today, which may confirm the view that the Fu Peng market has been divergent since October last year. In addition, it is also related to the existence of a certain degree of negative news about itself.
It is worth mentioning that Changchun High-tech, with a market value of 50 billion yuan, has also become a "star" after hours today, mainly because the secretary of the board of directors of Changchun High-tech has roared in the circle of friends. My God! O Buddha! Allah! Are your eyes blind?! ”
Today, Changchun High-tech also fell 8.17%, and this may be the reason for the secretary of the board of directors. In fact, Changchun Gaoxin was once a big bull stock, and as of the close, Changchun Gaoxin's stock price had fallen by 72.79% compared with the highest point of 522.17 yuan in May last year.
3. How to go after the A-share market?
Although the decline today is relatively large, analysts are not pessimistic about the direction of the market.
For example, Li Daxiao, who has always been optimistic, believes that "falling below three thousand points is not the end of the world." When the market rises, there will also be a stage of adjustment. ”
He believes that policies to stabilize growth are being introduced one after another, and the market reaction will be reflected later. Therefore, for the market, we should not be overly pessimistic, do a good job of coping, from offense to defense, choose equity products that match their own risk tolerance, and calmly cope with market fluctuations. At the same time, don't lose confidence in good stocks, avoid highly valued stocks, and be careful with leverage.
He expects that the biggest hope for the market to bottom is the Hang Seng Index, the second is the Shanghai 50, and when the conditions are ripe in the future, A shares may rebound with good stocks as the main force. With the stabilization of the economy and the intensification of stable growth, the stocks related to stable growth will return to their due value.
Sun Jianbo, chief economist of China Reading Capital, made a more specific judgment on the bottom of the market, predicting that the Shanghai index may continue to explore near 2700 points, and then there is a high probability that it will stop falling and stabilize.
However, he believes that when panic falls, it is often an opportunity to open a position for a long time. As the saying goes, "I am greedy when others are afraid, and I am afraid when others are greedy", Sun Jianbo also knows this well. He suggested that you should look for industries and companies with better growth over the next 3-5 years, "to open positions at lower prices when panic falls." ”
Fu Peng believes that it is meaningless to judge where the bottom is, and what is really important is to see how the factors affecting the market decline subside. In the case that the external liquidity crunch will not change much in the short term, the market mainly depends on the recovery of the current epidemic, and if the epidemic does not fully recover, it is difficult for the stock market to pull back immediately.
However, Fu Peng said that below 3,000 points is now a reasonable range under the current comprehensive factors. Although the global interest rate has risen, which has formed a certain squeeze on the valuation, at present, whether it is the CSI 100 or the CSI 500, everyone feels that the price-earnings ratio and price-to-book ratio are very low.
With the Shanghai index falling below 3,000 points today, the "3,000 point defense war" has started again. Looking back at history, since 2008, the A-share market has experienced about several rounds of 3,000 point defense battles.
Some investors joked, "13 years ago, the 3,000 points of financial defense war died my father, and 13 years later I also died in the defense war." ”
In this regard, Fu Peng believes that sticking to 3,000 points is actually of little significance, or to understand internal and external factors. In the next two or three months, investors need to think about whether the main factors affecting the market will fade now, and make a plan, and must not be too casual about strategy and trading.