French election "decisive day": Macron has a high chance of re-election, Le Pen has a chance to upset, what does it mean for the world?

On April 24, five years later, French President Emmanuel Macron, who represents the centrist, and Le Pen, the leader of the far-right "National Alliance", met again in the "final" of the presidential election. Multiple polls show Macron's lead has widened slightly from last week and is expected to receive 6 to 14 percentage points more votes than his opponents.

However, public opinion believes that the turnout rate of the day may hit a new low in decades, bringing more uncertainty to the outcome. At a time of new economic and political pressures in France and across Europe, the showdown is more intense than it was five years ago, and almost no one denies the possibility of Le Pen's accession to the Elysées.

What does this unresolved situation really mean for France and the world?

The battle was fierce

The French presidency is five years old, and the elections are held on a "two-round majority system". In the first round of voting held on the 10th, because no one received more than half of the votes, the "leader" Macron and Le Pen both qualified and entered the decider two weeks later.

At 8 o'clock local time on the 24th, the second round of voting for the presidential election began in mainland France. French media will publish export polls after the vote closes at 20:00 and the official results at a later date.

This is a replica of "Mahler Showdown" from 5 years ago. At the time, the 39-year-old "rising political star" beat veteran far-right politicians with 66% to 34% of the vote. Today, five years later, the latest poll predicts that Macron will receive 53% to 57% of the vote, with a margin of 6 to 14 percentage points to block opponents. However, macron and Le Pen are both cautious about the polls.

Combining the views of foreign media and analysts, overall, Macron has a greater chance of winning the election, but the advantage is reduced compared with 5 years ago. Far-right forces have seen a sharp rise in support, challenging Macron's re-election. Given the intensity of the battle, no one doubted the possibility that Le Pen would eventually enter the Elysées.

After 5 years, why has the challenger Le Pen been able to catch up with the gap between him and the rulers? It may be related to several factors.

First, Le Pen has been judging the situation since 2017 and softening the radical stance. Instead of using "leaving the EU" and "exiting the eurozone" as campaign manifestos, she advocated changing the way the EU operates to make it a "true coalition of nations."

Second, Le Pen seized on the "pain points" of voters and attracted more support. Inflation in France has been high recently, and food and energy costs have soared. The purchasing power crisis, unemployment rate, and pandemic response are all key concerns of voters. Le Pen made a series of economic claims to ease the burden on the population and accused Macron of being the "president of the rich.".

Third, Macron is no longer a political rookie, but the embodiment of the establishment and the establishment. In the past five years, his ruling record has been mixed, and the political "aura" has diminished. Although France has performed well in post-epidemic recovery, the government hastily promoted reforms such as fuel taxes and the retirement system, which has caused great domestic dissatisfaction.

Left-wing "king-making"

"Mahler Duel", who can laugh to the end? Reports from several Wall Street investment banks predict that Le Pen still retains a 10 to 35 percent chance of winning. Among them, the biggest suspense lies in the two key "variables".

One is turnout. The latest polls show that turnout on the 24th will be 72% to 74%, or a new low since 1969. That means as many as 25 to 30 percent of voters give up voting. If far-right voters continue to vote enthusiastically, while large disillusioned centrist and left-wing voters remain silent, the likelihood of Le Pen taking office will increase.

However, it has also been commented that low voter turnout may be detrimental to Le Pen, whose supporters have a larger proportion of younger voters. As most schools in France have spring break this weekend, it may affect some voter voting arrangements, adding uncertainty to the outcome of the election.

The second is the ultimate flow of left-wing voters.

In the first round of voting, the far-left candidate Mélang-hsiung received about 7.71 million votes, second only to Macron (9.78 million) and Le Pen (8.13 million). In the decider, neither of the latter two has enough die-hard "fans" to ensure their election, so Mélang-hsiung and other supporters of left-wing candidates will once again become "kingmakers".

Standing at both extremes of the political spectrum, Mélangcom repeatedly reminded supporters after the defeat in the first round that they must not vote for Le Pen. However, Méron has not expressed support for Macron. Macron is equally offensive to most left-wing voters, advocating a pragmatic line that has completely disrupted French politics. So macron's desire to attract left-wing votes won't be easier than it was 5 years ago.

It has also been commented that drifting voters will rule out based on the "danger index" of the two candidates. Or affected by this factor, when Macron and Le Pen went to their respective "ticket warehouses" for final mobilization on the 22nd, they invariably played the "attack card". Macron focused on creating voter fears of the far right, while Le Pen emphasized voter dissatisfaction with Macron's performance in power.

Battle of the routes

Regardless of who ends up spending, it's safe to say that the election is set to make history: Macron is on track to become the first French president to be re-elected in nearly 20 years, and Le Pen has the chance to wear the crown of France's first female president.

What do the two different outcomes mean for France and the world?

Overall, the election is seen as a "battle of the lines" about France's future: Macron's pro-EU, pro-globalization political stance, supported by domestic finance capital and industrial capital, while Le Pen focuses on "France first", emphasizes nationalism, opposes globalization, and is supported by blue-collar groups.

Internally, there have been comments that if Macron wins, he will redouble his efforts on supply-side reforms implemented in his first term, but will face difficult moments. Voters on all sides are likely to march in the streets for their continued pro-business reforms, including pension reform schemes.

If Le Pen wins, a major change in French economic and social policy is expected. Le Pen intends to promote the "buy French goods" policy, proposing to lower the minimum retirement age for workers before the age of 20 and abolish the income tax for groups under the age of 30. Street protests and violent protests may be repeated. Moreover, under the French political system, Le Pen's far-right stance could lead to difficulties in his subsequent formation of a government.

Externally, many countries in Europe and the United States are worried about the prospect of Le Pen coming to power. On the 21st, the leaders of Germany, Spain and Portugal jointly published an article in a number of European newspapers, calling on the French people to vote for Macron.

If the pro-European Macron wins, it is conceivable that he will continue to push for Europe's strategic autonomy in defense, technology, agriculture and energy, and reduce the EU's dependence on outside countries; he may push the EU to strengthen regulation of U.S. tech giants.

If Le Pen wins, it is expected that it will trigger a political earthquake in Europe, with an impact comparable to britain's "Brexit" and Trump's election as us president. While Le Pen insisted that he had no intention of leaving the EU, eurozone or Schengen area, he advocated cutting France's contribution to the EU budget, renegotiating the Schengen agreement, seeking to tighten border controls and hold a referendum on immigration. In addition, Le Pen's vow to reduce France's leadership role in NATO has upset U.S. officials.

The outside world is also concerned about how the change of power in France will affect Sino-French relations and Russian-French relations.

Marc Julienne, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations, wrote on the 15th that Macron is more likely to maintain economic and diplomatic relations with China. Macron has shown that he is committed to maintaining the bilateral relationship between France and China and supporting globalization and free trade.

Le Pen has repeatedly stated that France should maintain good relations with Russia in order to prevent the formation of a Sino-Russian alliance. "If we don't do anything, we're going to unite the world's largest producers of raw materials with the world's largest producers of products, and perhaps make them the world's largest military force." I think it's dangerous. (Edit email: [email protected])

Column Editor-in-Chief: Yang Liqun Text Editor: Yang Liqun Caption Source: Xinhua News Agency Photo Editor: Zhu Xuan

Source: Author: An Zheng