Russian Defense Minister Shoigu reported to President Putin on the 21st that the Russian army has controlled other areas of the city of Mariupol except the Azov Steel Plant. Putin ordered the cancellation of the plan to storm the Azov steel plant on the same day, and replaced it with a blockade to prevent any armed personnel from escaping from it.
Analysts believe that the control of Mariupol, a strategic town, is of great significance to russia's realization of operational objectives and the promotion of a new stage of operations.
This is a street scene of Mariupol taken on April 20. Xinhua News Agency/TASS
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Why did the Russian side cancel the plan of the offensive?
Shoigu said more than 2,000 militants are currently "firmly" trapped inside the Azov steel plant, and the assault will take 3 to 4 days. Putin ordered the cancellation of the offensive and the replacement of the blockade. Putin said that the cancellation of the strong attack is to protect the lives of Russian soldiers, in addition, the Russian side will ensure the safety of the lives of the surrendered Ukrainian soldiers and give them due treatment.
The Azov Steel Works was built during the Soviet era and is located in an industrial area with its own electricity and water supply system, as well as railways and overpasses. In order to resist nuclear war, the Azov Steel Plant built a huge network of tunnels, which were easy to defend and difficult to attack. According to the US "Veterans Today" website and other media reports, the total length of the tunnel is about 24 kilometers, the deepest depth is 30 meters, and the depth is 6 stories deep, which is difficult to blow up from the ground, and it is convenient for the Ukrainian army to transfer, use underground communication equipment to communicate, and organize ambushes from different entrances and exits.
Yang Zhen, deputy director of the Northeast Asia Research Center and military expert of the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, believes that there are multiple considerations for the Russian military to change the blockade: First, to avoid the heavy casualties caused by the russian army by attacking the steel plants with complete fortifications. The second is to arrest foreign mercenaries and even NATO military personnel speculated by public opinion, so as to counter the West in public opinion. The third is to promote change with pressure. The Ukrainian defenders were exhausted by the ongoing high-intensity fighting, and the siege could trigger infighting. In addition, more time for civilians to evacuate is also a consideration.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said earlier that there are a large number of foreign mercenaries among the Ukrainian armed personnel in Mariupol. Radio interception found that in addition to Ukrainian and Russian, the Ukrainian radio dialogue also used other languages, mainly European languages.
This is a street scene of Mariupol taken on April 20. Xinhua News Agency/TASS
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Why is Mariupol important?
Mariupol is the second largest city in the Donetsk region, with a population of about 400,000 before the outbreak of conflict, and the largest port in the Sea of Azov is located here.
The capture of Mariupol meant that the Russian army built a "land bridge" along the coast of the Sea of Azov connecting Crimea with the Donbass region and then to the Russian interior. The coast of the Sea of Azov will be completely under the control of civilian forces in Russia and eastern Ukraine.
Mariupol is the base camp of the "Azov Battalion" of the Ukrainian National Guard. Analysts believe that the "Azov battalion" is a nationalist militant in the eyes of the Russian side, and the occupation of Mariupol and the elimination of the main force of the "Azov battalion" mean that one of the main goals of the Russian special military operation, "de-Nazification", has been achieved to a large extent.
Shoigu reported to Putin on the 21st that in the process of capturing Mariupol, more than 4,000 Ugandan armed personnel were annihilated and 1,478 surrendered.
Yang Zhen believes that Shoigu's announcement of the progress of the Mariupol war at this time is intended to offset the negative impact of the sinking of the cruiser "Moscow", the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet a week ago, on the one hand, to warn the West not to act rashly, on the other hand, to show the Russian military and civilians that the leading power of the battlefield is in full control. The remnants of the Azov Steel Plant lack heavy weapons and are unable to pose a substantial threat to the areas controlled by the Russian army and to the land routes.
Staff sort out the American flag at the EU headquarters in Brussels, Belgium, on March 24. Photo by Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Cheng
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How will the war change?
Analysts expect that after the Russian occupation of Mariupol, it will be able to free up troops to carry out a new phase of special military operations.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said on the evening of the 19th that the Russian army has launched the "War of Donbass." Alesstović, an adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine, said on the 20th that the Russian army launched a fierce attack on Kharkiv Oblast, Luhansk and Donetsk on the same day.
Yang Zhen pointed out that after taking control of Mariupol, the Russian army is expected to alleviate the shortage of troops, and then besiege the main force of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass region.
"Russian special military operations have always revolved around the three goals of de-militarization, de-Nazirification and neutrality of Ukraine, so it is not the primary goal to kill and injure the other side's living forces as much as possible." Yang Zhen said.
Suslov, a professor at the Center for European and International Studies at the Russian Higher School of Economics, believes that the parties will still strive to sign a peace agreement in the near future.
Source: Xinhua Net