In view of the recent problems of vehicle detention and poor logistics caused by the epidemic, the State Council decided to establish a logistics support work mechanism and proposed ten important measures. With the introduction of various national policies to ensure smooth access, the impact of epidemic control on the rice market will be a temporary phenomenon.
In the second quarter, rice demand entered the off-season, and the rice market was often under pressure to weaken in the case of a large number of reserve rice rotations. However, this year is different from the past, after entering April, the overall operation of the rice market is stable, affected by the epidemic, some areas have recently seen a slight upward trend, the weak is not weak, the later rice market seems to be expected.
The market is running smoothly, and local rice has risen slightly
Although the local reserve rice has entered the peak in turn and the demand for rice rations has entered the off-season, due to the impact of the epidemic, the freight rates in the affected areas and surrounding areas have risen sharply, logistics costs have risen sharply, the supply chain has been impacted, and rice prices in some areas have shown a stable and rising trend. On April 19, the average wholesale price of rice nationwide was 5310 yuan / ton, unchanged week-on-week. In terms of regions, the purchase price of ordinary round grain japonica rice in Heilongjiang Hulin is 2640 yuan / ton, the purchase price of rice in Jilin grain wholesale market is 2860 yuan / ton, the purchase price of ordinary japonica rice in Nanjing, Jiangsu Ishi 2900 yuan / ton, the wholesale price of japonica rice is 4060 yuan / ton, the purchase price of medium and late indica rice in Changsha, Hunan is 2720 yuan / ton, the wholesale price of indica rice is 3800 yuan / ton, the purchase price of middle and late indica rice in Nanchang, Jiangxi is 2600 yuan / ton, and the wholesale price of medium and late indica rice is 3620 yuan / ton, all of which are flat weekly. The wholesale price of high-quality Jiangsu japonica rice in the Shanghai market is 4680 yuan / ton, up 60 yuan / ton. The purchase price of ordinary late indica rice in Zhejiang is 2760 yuan / ton, and the purchase price of late japonica rice is 2770 yuan / ton, both up 10 yuan / ton; the average wholesale price of medium and late indica rice is 4210 yuan / ton, and the average wholesale price of ordinary japonica rice is 4190 yuan / ton, all of which are flat.
Increased planting yields Early rice production is progressing well
According to the agricultural situation dispatch of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the area of early rice in the south this year is expected to be more than 71 million mu, which is stable and increased compared with the previous year. Among them, the early rice planting area in Hunan is more than 18.15 million mu, exceeding the plan by 152,000 mu; the intended sowing area of early rice in Jiangxi is 18.3 million mu, an increase of 18,000 mu year-on-year; the early rice planting area in Guangdong is 13.047 million mu, an increase of 65,000 mu year-on-year; and the early rice planting area in Guangxi is 12.11 million mu, which is basically the same as that of the previous year.
As of April 19, 70% of the early rice planting in the south has been planted, slightly faster than that of the same period last year; the rice seedlings in the northeast have been completed by 74.2%, 2.4 percentage points faster than the same period last year. At present, most of the early rice in Jiangnan is in the seedling to three-leaf stage, and some of it has entered the transplanting and greening period; most of the early rice in South China is in the tillering stage of rejuvenation, and most of Hainan is in the stage of pregnant ear extraction to milk maturity. Most of the rice in the southwest region is in the seedling stage, the southern part has entered the transplanting and rejuvenation period, and the northeast region is in the sowing and seedling stage.
Last year's new season of early rice after the opening of the scale, and once higher than the middle and late rice, planting efficiency is better, boosting the farmers' confidence in planting grain this year. At present, the price of early indica rice in Ezhou City, Hubei Province, is 2640 yuan / ton, which is 60 yuan / ton higher than the price of medium and late indica rice; the wholesale price of early indica rice in Changsha, Hunan Ishi is 3820 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than the wholesale price of medium and late indica rice. It can be seen that the moderate increase in grain prices and the improvement of grain planting efficiency are conducive to improving the enthusiasm of farmers in growing grain.
Slight decline in international supply Rice imports have slowed
Affected by factors such as the better price advantage of rice and the increase in demand for alternatives, since the beginning of the year, international rice trade has increased and inventories have decreased, which has promoted a sustained slight increase in prices and maintained stable operation in the near future. Mainland rice imports decreased slightly month-on-month, with mainland rice imports of 520,000 tons in March, down 30,000 tons month-on-month, down 3.7% year-on-year; in the first quarter, the mainland imported 1.66 million tons of rice, an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year. In March, the mainland exported 100,000 tons of rice, down 80,000 tons from the previous month and down 140,000 tons year-on-year; in the first quarter, the cumulative export of rice was 420,000 tons, down 230,000 tons year-on-year. In the first quarter, the mainland's net imports of rice were 1.24 million tons, a sharp increase of 440,000 tons year-on-year, an increase of 55%.
The slowdown in the growth rate of rice imports is mainly due to the large import base in the early stage, the peak of the reserve rice rotation in China, and the minimum purchase price of rice began to bid for sales in advance. It is expected that short-term rice imports may still slow down, mainly due to the recent severe situation of domestic epidemic prevention and control, coupled with the positive test of some imported rice, or to make the test of imported rice more stringent. If rice imports slow down, the pressure on the domestic rice market will be alleviated.
The epidemic situation is grim, and logistics costs have risen sharply
In addition to the rise in crude oil prices and the sharp rise in pesticides and fertilizers, which have led to an increase in rice planting costs and rice production costs, due to the severe situation of epidemic prevention and control, some truck drivers have chosen to detour in order to avoid medium- and high-risk areas, which has greatly increased logistics costs. It is understood that the recent freight rates of goods sent to the epidemic area in the Yangtze River Delta region have risen significantly, with an increase of nearly 50%, and some of the increases have even exceeded 1 times.
Due to the control of the epidemic, the rise in freight rates, and the increase in the cost of rice entering the factory, rice processing enterprises have had to slightly increase the ex-factory price of rice. Jiangsu Xinghua Rice Factory will produce ordinary rice at a mainstream price of 2900 yuan / ton in 2021 (about 15% moisture, more than 71% of rice production rate), and the mainstream price of "Nan japonica 9108" is about 3240 yuan / ton; the price of ordinary rice in 2021 by rice factories in southern Jiangsu is 2960 yuan / ton (about 15% moisture, and the rice yield rate is more than 71%), all of which have increased compared with the previous period. The factory price of rice has also risen slightly compared with the previous period, but there is also a phenomenon of transportation control and rice sales difficulties, the mainstream factory price of ordinary varieties of rice is 3700 ~ 3760 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of high-quality South Japonica series is 4200 ~ 4320 yuan / ton.
Market confidence recovers And the rice bottom gradually rises
In view of the recent large number, wide range and frequent occurrence of local clusters of epidemics in the country, the epidemic control in some areas has affected traffic traffic, and there have been problems such as vehicle detention and poor logistics, the State Council held a meeting on April 18 and decided to establish the State Council logistics guarantee work mechanism, and put forward ten important measures for deployment, requiring that the security of the security be placed in an important position in the overall work, so as to achieve the people's livelihood support, smooth freight and industrial circulation. With the introduction of various national policies to ensure smooth access, it is expected that the problems of traffic stagnation and poor logistics due to the impact of epidemic prevention and control in various places will soon be solved.
Therefore, the rise in logistics costs caused by the control of the epidemic is expected to be a short-term phenomenon, but the rapid decline in farmers' rice stocks, the gradual reduction of domestic rice supply pressure, the continuous rise in international rice prices, and the short-term slowdown in rice imports will boost market confidence. With the protracted situation in Russia and Ukraine, the prices of primary agricultural products and commodities have remained high, pushing up the global food price index. Rising inflation expectations will also boost confidence in the rice market. At the same time, the rising prices of varieties such as wheat and corn have also boosted the confidence of the rice market. With the gradual recovery of confidence in the rice market, it is expected that the bottom of rice will be more clear, and the probability of upward movement in the medium term will increase. (Originally published on the third page of the Grain and Oil Market Newspaper on April 21, 2022)
Source丨grain and oil market report
Total Duty 丨 Liu Xinhuan Coordinator 丨 Liu Chao Editor 丨 Congshen