Summary of views
Core view: neutral Last week's decline has digested the market's expectations for the impact of the epidemic, with the emergence of the inflection point of the epidemic, the demand margin has gradually emerged, but the reality of the downstream tire factory has not exceeded the expected improvement; if the future thai production area is released, the possibility of raw material prices continue to decline, then NR is unlikely to continue to rise to repair the valuation, and it is expected to maintain a shock trend; and RU can currently pay attention to the opening of Hainan and the continuity of the raw material price spread. Overall, we maintain the quarterly view that rubber prices may have a chance to rise in stages, but we expect to maintain a weak shock operation.
Production area weather: empty Weather in each production area is normal, Thai glue prices fell raw material support weakened, need to pay attention to the Hainan cutting situation and the continuity of raw material price differences.
Inventory: More deep, light-colored rubber stocks continue to maintain dematerialization, of which Yunnan non-standard, old whole milk and Vietnamese 3L inventory destocking is faster.
Epidemic situation: more Freight transport in the country has a trend of recovery, the epidemic in Shanghai has shown an inflection point, and the Shanghai automobile industry has gradually resumed work and production, but it is necessary to pay attention to the tightening of prevention and control policies in other cities.
Supply: Thai raw material prices fell,
Continue to pay attention to the price spread of raw materials in Hainan
Rainfall in southern Thailand has decreased and glue prices have fallen
- Rainfall decreased in southern Thailand. According to Reuters data, rainfall in southern Thailand has gradually decreased to about 5mm, and the impact of glue output has been reduced.
- The northeast of Thailand is being cut off and rainfall is expected to increase. It is understood that the northeast production area of Thailand is expected to be cut one after another, and it is expected that all the rainfall in the northeast will increase in the next two weeks.
- Thai glue prices fell. After the Songkran Festival, the price of glue in Thailand fell sharply by 4 baht, the price of cup glue was relatively firm, and the raw material support of glue products was weakening.
Source: QinRex, Reuters, Tianfeng Futures Institute
Vietnam expects full cuts in early May
- Vietnam's main producing areas are cut in small quantities by land. Vietnam's main producing areas are expected to start fully in early May, and the rainfall in Dong Nai Province is about 5 mm, which has little impact on tapping.
Source: QinRex, Reuters, Tianfeng Futures Institute
The weather in the Yunnan production area is normal, and the price of the concentrated dairy is higher than that of the whole dairy
- The weather in Yunnan is normal. At present, Yunnan is in full swing, and the rainfall in Yunnan is expected to remain about 3mm, which has little impact on glue output.
- The price of the concentrated dairy is higher than that of the whole dairy. In Yunnan, the concentrated dairy plant is about 12300 yuan / ton, and the whole dairy plant is about 11750 yuan / ton.
Source: QinRex, Reuters, Tianfeng Futures Institute
Hainan currently produces less and continues to focus on raw material price differentials
- There is less rainfall in Hainan, and the impact of powdery mildew on the later stage of full-scale cutting is concerned. At present, the production of glue in Hainan is small, and the overall rainfall will not affect the full cutting, but it is understood that there are a small amount of powdery mildew in some areas, which needs continuous attention.
- Keep an eye on raw material spreads. At present, the raw material spread is still at a high level, pay attention to the change in the spread at the end of April and the beginning of May.
Source: QinRex, Reuters, Tianfeng Futures Institute
Rubber imports increased in March month-on-month
- Imported rubber increased sharply month-on-month in March and fell slightly year-on-year. According to customs data, the import volume of natural rubber and synthetic rubber in March was 670,000 tons, an increase of 31.4% month-on-month and a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%, and the import volume of natural rubber is expected to be about 530,000 tons.
- Apparent consumption in the first quarter was similar to that of 2021. According to the projection of production, import volume and social inventory, consumption in the first quarter of 2022 only decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, so it seems biased to focus only on the operating rate of all steel.
Source: General Administration of Customs, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Inventory: Social inventory remains dematerialized
Dark glue went to the warehouse, mainly due to the decrease in Yunnan inventory month-on-month
- As of April 15, 2022, the stock of natural rubber in the bonded zone was 115,200 tons, an increase of 0.28 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 2.49% month-on-month.
- Natural rubber stocks outside the bonded zone were 314,500 tons, an increase of 0.25 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.8% month-on-month.
- The total stock of natural rubber was 429,700 tons, an increase of 0.53 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.25% month-on-month.
Source: QinRex, Zhuo Chuang, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Light-colored adhesive stocks remain stable
- As of April 15, 2022, the number of RU warehouse receipts in the previous week was 248,000 tons, an increase of 0.15 million tons from the previous week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 260,000 tons, an increase of 0.21 million tons from the previous week.
- The number of NR warehouse receipts this week was 101,200 tons, down 0.36 million tons from the previous week; the delivery warehouse inventory was 107,500 tons, down 0.43 million tons from last week.
Source: Institute of Futures, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Demand: The epidemic in Shanghai has reached an inflection point,
Pay attention to the changes in epidemic prevention policies in other cities
Tire starts continued to improve sequentially, but remained low year-on-year
- According to QinRex data, as of April 14, 2022, the operating rate of all steel tires was 56.71%, an increase of 7.3 percentage points from the previous month; the operating rate of semi-steel tires was 68.38%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month.
- Affected by high inventory, it is expected that the increase in the start of tire factories in the future is limited, and the obstruction of superimposed logistics and transportation, raw materials and finished product transportation are affected to a certain extent.
Source: QinRex, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
All-steel tire inventory was flat, and semi-steel tire inventory decreased slightly
- According to QinRex data, as of April 15, 2022, China's all-steel tire inventory turnover days were 42, and semi-steel tire inventory turnover days were 41, a decrease from last week.
Source: QinRex, Zhuo Chuang, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
There is a trend of recovery in freight transport across the country, and Shanghai's automobile industry has gradually resumed work and production
- There is a recovery trend in freight. The national vehicle freight traffic index increased to 84.19 month-on-month, an increase of 3.8% month-on-month, and a decrease of 27% year-on-year in April.
- Shanghai freight is still blocked. Shanghai's vehicle traffic index is 17.98, which is still at a historical low.
- Shanghai's auto industry resumed work and production. With the epidemic under control, The Shanghai automotive industry has gradually resumed work and production, including SAIC Motor and Tesla, to a certain extent, reducing the loss of supporting demand.
Source: Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The epidemic in Shanghai has reached an inflection point, but it is necessary to pay attention to the tightening of prevention and control policies in other cities
- The epidemic situation in Shanghai and the whole country has reached an inflection point. According to data from the Health Commission, thanks to Shanghai's epidemic prevention policy, Shanghai's new confirmed cases and asymptomatic infections have shown an inflection point, and there has been a decline week-on-week, but it is still necessary to pay attention to the tightening of prevention and control policies in other cities.
Source: Health Commission, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Tire exports are expected to remain strong in March, and pay attention to the extent to which export orders in April have been affected by the epidemic
- National export data remained resilient in March. According to customs data, the export value in March is still in a 15% year-on-year increase, and the national export value of goods in 2021 has a certain correlation with the amount of tire exports, so it is expected that tire exports will remain strong in March.
- Pay attention to the extent to which export orders in April have been affected by the epidemic. Affected by the epidemic, transportation in various places is blocked, and the shipment of raw materials and finished products is expected to be delayed to a certain extent, but the overall epidemic situation in Shandong is well controlled, so it is expected that the export situation will not be significantly reduced by the epidemic.
Source: General Administration of Customs, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Price:
The RU-NR spread continues to narrow during the decline, and the basis strengthens
Ru-NR continued to narrow during the decline
- The main ru closing price on April 15 was 13340 yuan / ton, down 205 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.51% month-on-month.
- The main closing price of NR was 11185 yuan / ton, down 155 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.37% month-on-month.
- The RU-NR index continues to narrow.
Source: Wind, Institute of Futures, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Concentrated milk prices continue to weaken
- On April 15, the price of shanghai full latex was 12900 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last week, down 0.39% month-on-month.
- The price of RSS3 in Thailand was 15550 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last week, down 0.32% month-on-month.
- The vietnamese 3L price is 12850 yuan / ton, flat from last week.
- The price of domestic concentrated milk was 11,000 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.79% month-on-month.
Source: Previous Institute, Wind, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Dark gum prices fell slightly
- On April 15, the price of Thai Standard STR20 was $1820/ton, down $10/ton from last week, down 0.55% month-on-month.
- The price of Thai yuan is 12,800 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton from last week.
Source: Previous Institute, Wind, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
The basis continues to run high
- On April 15, Shanghai full latex-RU was -440 yuan / ton, up 155 yuan / ton from last week.
- Thai standard STR20-RU is -1710 yuan / ton, up 185 yuan / ton from last week.
- Thai mix-RU was -575 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton from last week.
- Thai standard STR20-NR was 444 yuan / ton, up 135 yuan / ton from last week.
Source: Previous Institute, Wind, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Natural rubber balance sheet
Natural rubber monthly balance sheet
- Upward revision of March import data: According to customs data, March imports were raised by 90,000 tons to 515,000 tons, while increasing apparent consumption.
- Adjust inventory data: Adjust inventory movements based on prior-year explicit inventory data.
Source: China Customs, ANRPC, Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
Author: Tang Yi
Content source: Tianfeng Futures Research Institute
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