On April 20, local time, French television will broadcast the election debates of current President Macron and le Pen, candidate of the far-right party "National Union".
However, at the critical moment when the two candidates were finally wrestling, Le Pen was suddenly accused from the European Union of being suspected of fraud and misappropriation of EU funds, and was deeply involved in the whirlpool of public opinion.
At this time, le Pen was attacked by the EU", "the drunkard's intention is not to drink"?
According to the British "Daily Mail" reported on the 17th, Le Pen became the focus of a major criminal fraud investigation in the European Union that night.
French prosecutors confirmed that a report from the European Union's Anti-Fraud Agency (OLAF) on March 11 this year was being reviewed. The 116-page report accuses Le Pen and his "National Union" of misappropriating 617,000 euros of EU funds. Among them, Le Pen himself embezzled a total of 140,000 euros of public funds to pay employee salaries and activities during his tenure as a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2017.
Eu anti-fraud agencies call misappropriation by Le Pen and other members of the National Union "serious violations" that endanger the EU's reputation, seek compensation for this, and may prosecute fraud and misappropriation charges.
For the EU allegations, Le Pen's lawyers immediately came forward to deny it, expressing doubts about its authenticity and independence, and pointed out that the EU side's repetition of the old matter at this time "seems to have a deep political color."
Le Pen himself also came forward to refute it when he participated in a campaign on the 18th, saying that it was only a few days before the second round of voting in the French general election, and that the EU was doing so as a "serious violation". Jordan Badera, acting president of the National Union, said the EU and European institutions "tried to interfere in the French presidential campaign and hurt Le Pen".
"When the competition for the French presidential throne entered a fierce situation, the EUROPEAN Union suddenly turned over the old account, seemingly coincidentally, in fact, the EU repeated the old tricks," said Zhao Chen, a researcher at the Institute of European Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, during the 2017 French election, a similar plot was also staged, when the EU disclosed a fraud investigation against Le Pen, accusing him of embezzling European Parliament funds to pay salaries to two aides, and then, French prosecutors made preliminary charges against Le Pen, and to this day, the case is still inconclusive.
"The EU certainly has the right to audit the funds allocated to investigate suspected violations, but once again choosing to 'challenge' Le Pen at the critical moment of the French election, it is difficult to say that there is no intention to interfere in the election," Zhao Chen said.
Cui Hongjian, director of the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, also pointed out that candidates are subject to moral and regulatory accusations during the election process, which are not uncommon in the French election, and such accusations may adversely affect the credibility and approval ratings of candidates. However, as to whether the purpose of the investigation party is to interfere in the campaign, Cui Hongjian believes that it is difficult to investigate specifically, and can only be said to be suspected of playing "edge ball".
Is it too late for Le Pen to adjust his campaign strategy?
"Le Pen has a long history of feud with the EU, and the reason why she is regarded by the EU as an 'unfriendly person' is closely related to her political background and domestic and foreign policy views," Zhao chen said.
Le Pen, from a far-right party, explicitly supported France's exit from the European Union when he first ran for president in 2012, and expressed his desire to leave the eurozone when he ran again in 2017. By 2022, although Le Pen's campaign platform no longer talks about "Brexit", it still insists on creating a "sovereign Europe" to replace the EU.
Its proposed economic, social and immigration policies are also considered to be at odds with EU policy at every turn. For example, Le Pen wants the EU to restore state borders and control the import of migrants and goods, and has proposed a proposed bill on "citizenship and migration" aimed at giving French citizens priority in employment, social security benefits and public housing in the country, which is inconsistent with the EU's concept of "integration" and free movement policies; she also advocates lower fuel surcharges to reduce the travel costs of French people, which is also contrary to the EU's policy on climate change.
She also wants to reduce France's contribution to the EU budget and re-establish the primacy of French law above EU law.
One European diplomat said Le Pen's words were "chilling" and that "if her European plans are implemented, france could become irrelevant in Europe." Reuters said Le Pen's plan is aimed at hollowing out the EU, which will put her in conflict with most EU partners on many issues.
Perhaps influenced by the allegations, Le Pen has recently begun to adjust his campaign strategy, no longer frequently attacking the European Union, but instead targeting China and Russia. In a radio interview on Monday, Le Pen said Europe must take every measure to reconnect Russia to Europe after the Ukraine crisis is over and avoid China and Russia "getting closer and closer." She also dismissed accusations that she was too "pro-Russian," saying she had long condemned Russia's military operations.
So, can Le Pen, who has lowered the tone, resolve his feud with the EU? Cui Hongjian pointed out that Le Pen started with opposition to the European Union, although her position has changed, but the "anti-European" label on her body may be difficult to remove in a short period of time. Judging from the various statements made by relevant people in the EU, it is obvious that Le Pen is not welcome.
Macron stabilized?
In four days, the second round of voting in the French presidential election will begin, when Le Pen and Macron will compete for the presidential "throne".
In the last round of voting, the two entered the final round with 27.84% and 23.15% of the vote respectively, which was also evaluated by the French media as "the smallest in history". But in just a few days, the situation has changed, according to Reuters, according to reuters, according to the results of the first 3 polls in the second round of voting, Macron's average approval rating is 55.83%, 1% higher than the 15th, and more than 3% higher than the average of the first 5 polls before the first round of voting.
"Macron's approval rating has risen, and the EU's suppression of Le Pen has little to do with it, after all, the EU's similar 'interference' moves have long been commonplace among French voters", in Zhao Chen's view, Macron can expand the lead in just a few days, for two reasons:
The first is its active efforts to canvass for votes. After the first round of voting, Macron traveled non-stop to hold campaigns, first to northern France, which was mainly occupied by Le Pen supporters, to meet local voters, and then to Strasbourg, Mulhouse and Marseille, where he was more supportive of the far-left party candidate Mélangon, to meet with "angry voters". This act of reaching out to voters with opposing opinions contrasts with Le Pen's tendency to go to far-right areas with a large number of votes to hold rallies, and also makes up for Macron's absence from the campaign debate some time ago because he was busy mediating for the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, creating an image of "going deep into the people".
Secondly, the current vote pattern has undergone structural changes compared to the first round, and the previously eliminated center-right and center-left parties have all fallen to Macron, and even the far-left party candidate Mélang-hsiung has also called on his supporters not to support Le Pen, and it is reasonable for Macron to gain a greater advantage.
"And for the two of them, the TV debate held tonight is also very important", Zhao Chen pointed out, 5 years ago, Le Pen was defeated in the TV debate with Macron, when Macron easily said economic statistics, but Le Pen could only turn over the notes in confusion.
When it comes to this debate, both are quite confident. Macron said he had a plan to win that deserved to be made public, and Le Pen insisted she was better prepared this time, and to that end she cut back campaign schedules to have more time to prepare.
"Although there are only a few days left until the second round of voting, the political situation is changing rapidly, and anything can happen, and if Le Pen increases the purchasing power of the people and advocates the slogan of 'France first' to gain the support of voters, especially young people, it is not excluded that there will be a 'black swan event' in the French presidential election." Zhao Chen said.
(Look at the news Knows reporter Song Yi)