Image source @ Visual China
Text| DataEye
The version number was restarted, and the buying volume market broke out slightly.
The number of game APPS participating in the purchase continues to increase, and the real sense is "comparable to the New Year".
A topic of 30 million + readings on Weibo triggered discussions inside and outside the circle: Can the resumption of game version numbers save domestic games? Sina Finance, Caijing Network, Southern Weekend and other 23 media participated in the release.
The DataEye Institute believes that this question itself is wrong! It belongs to the rhythm and smells of the low-looking game industry.
Domestic games are not yet in need of being "saved".
The correct way to ask is: what is the impact of the resumption of version number issuance on domestic games and related industries?
For this question, the DataEye Research Institute recently put forward four major judgments.
01. Judgment 1: After the release of the version number was suspended for 8 months, the uncertainty faced by the new tour was greater
The suspension of the version number for 8 months means that some companies with small version number reserves have a fault in the field of game publishing, sit on the "cold bench" for 8 months and be a "bystander" for 8 months.
8 months is really too long, and at present, the market challenges facing the launch of new games are even greater, including:
Marketing environment: on the buying side, the price has greatly exceeded the affordability of small and medium-sized manufacturers. On the communication side, the marketing method is more volumeeous and more naked, and "Against the Cold Water" has begun to send houses, which can be called the "annual volume king". In addition, performance-oriented marketing (including short videos/live streams) is in the ascendant, but there is no ready-made homework to copy – marketing is too difficult.
Public opinion environment: TapTap and various new media and other media have never been so developed, players have a slight dissatisfaction with the tens of thousands of resignation game planning. The game's "public relations crisis" has been common for more than half a year, and "Magic Tower", "Flower Mountain Heart Moon", and "Harry Potter Magic Awakening" have all stepped on the pit.
Aesthetic environment: The success of "Original God" and the iteration of UE4 and UE5 have greatly increased the aesthetic level of domestic players, and picture quality art has become a dragon gate that must be skipped in new tours. "Ember Storm", which is huge but the picture is down, is a negative case.
In such a situation, the game manufacturer who got the version number is more like "getting a hot potato after the Great Famine" - it is good to eat, but how to eat it until the next meal, how to not burn the mouth, and what way to eat it is not scolded "eating ugly", all need to be carefully considered.
02. Research and judgment two: the significance of the restart of the version number: the signal of "continuously promoting the healthy development of the industry" is released
The current competent authority for the domestic game industry is the Central Propaganda Department, the competent department for films. Referring to the number of "dragon labels" under the movie and the review standards, it is not difficult to foresee: the version number will continue to be issued, but it will be issued less, and the review will become more and more stringent. The high probability will be more diversified, and tend to support small and medium-sized manufacturers, medium and light products, especially the theme of promoting Chinese culture and positive energy.
From 2019 to 2021, the number of game versions (including imported game versions) issued was 1545, 1405 and 755, respectively, and the number of three-year continuous decline continued to decrease, with a total of about 3700 approved version numbers. Due to the suspension, the number of edition numbers for the whole year of 2021 decreased by 46.26% compared with the previous year. In April, the version number was restarted, and there were only 45 of them.
The 45 editions have three major characteristics: a small number, a variety of themes, and a tendency to moderately light games. 45 games, except for "Sword Net 3", there is basically no chance to shake the corresponding track.
And of the 45 companies that have been given the version number, many of them have business premises that cannot be contacted, or the official website is no longer a game - it is suspected that it fell on the eve of dawn. There won't be as many games that can actually be launched.
As mentioned above, the number of game apps bought has begun to soar, and it is not the promotion of new games, but the increase in the intensity of old games.
Based on this information, this version restart can be described as a "cup of water", and it will not bring any substantive changes to the industry for the time being - the symbolic significance is greater than the practical significance.
The restart of the version number is more important to release the positive signal and clear signal of "continuously promoting the healthy development of the industry", so that the industry and related fields can form positive expectations.
Expectations, invisible and intangible, but are a huge force driving the development of the industry and even the entire social and economic development.
On the one hand, the game industry has expectations, and the stubborn diseases of the game industry, such as internal rolls, layoffs, budget reductions, vicious competition, and false data, are likely to be greatly alleviated.
More importantly, the expectations of the management of game companies directly affect the employment of young people. It should be known that in 2020 alone, Chinese companies with game research and development, publishing or operation as one of their main businesses will provide more than 700,000 jobs, which does not include upstream and downstream enterprises such as channels, media, and services - the game industry is related to people's livelihood and GDP. Some time ago, a number of game manufacturers laid off employees, which was really shocking.
On the other hand, the capital market has expectations, and the problem of the downturn in game stocks and even Internet platform stocks can also be alleviated, which is conducive to maintaining the stability of the financial market.
03. Judgment 3: China's Internet enterprises, especially Internet advertising, are the first to benefit and the first to break out
At the beginning of this year, many people in the industry pessimistically said that they were "ready to have no version number for a year", which was broken in less than 4 months. It can be expected that the speed of new games launched in the entire industry will inevitably accelerate.
New travel has always been an important force in the buying market. According to DataEye-ADX data, since July 2021, the number of new trips in the entire buying market has decreased significantly, and the basic waist has been cut.
If the industry is expected to recover, the situation is bound to improve. Those games that have a version number but are reluctant to send it, the probability will no longer be hidden, and the acceleration of the new tour into the market is the consensus of the industry. More importantly, the old products with existing versions are also increasing their efforts.
It's not just the amount of buying. The game industry is the big financier of China's entire Internet industry.
In China's Internet advertising, the industry with the highest volume of advertising is games, accounting for about 17% in 2021. In March 2022, about 17% of the revenue of the huge engine came from game purchases, about 19% of Tencent Advertising, and about 14% of Kuaishou (data source: DataEye).
On the Android side, a large part of the Revenue of Hua, Mi, O, and V Internet comes from game sales and intermodal transportation. Among them, the cumulative number of players in Xiaomi games alone exceeded 360 million, and the number of cooperative developers exceeded 10,000.
The game cloud (not cloud games) is the core force driving the development of the cloud industry. The market size of game cloud in 2019 is 11.5 million yuan, accounting for 15%, the 5-year CAGR is 51.9%, and the CAGR is predicted to be 36.8% in the next 5 years.
All in all, the expectations of the game industry directly affect Internet companies, especially the Internet advertising industry.
At the moment when the uncertainty of game products is very large, and marketing is difficult and "the game works for the channel", the version number is issued, and the Internet advertising industry is the first to break out, the first to benefit, and the more certain.
As old tours increase their investment and new tours accelerate their entry into the market, the battle for users' attention will become more intense.
For game companies, how to market content more effectively and seize users' attention has become a must-answer question.
Moreover, as more game makers "enter the exam room", this mandatory question may become more and more difficult.
Is there a reference answer? Yes, yes: big data + creativity. Sustained real estate efficient creativity is inevitably inseparable from the support of AI and big data analysis, and ROI is bound to be difficult to guarantee by relying on advertisers to "pat their heads, rely on experience, and rely on intuition".
04, research and judgment four: innovation and the enterprise system behind it, is the core issue of the industry
Why does the #game version number recovery and distribution on Weibo save the domestic game?# topic? Why do some "rhythmic" people feel that domestic games need to be saved?
Mainly because: the serious problem of homogenization of game products is still serious.
The version number is just an admission ticket. The success of the game also requires the superposition of multiple factors, product, operations, marketing, industry environment and even luck.
The problem of the entire domestic game industry is essentially not the problem of admission tickets.
In the final analysis, it is still a question of innovation, and whether the internal system of the game company can stimulate innovation and whether it can concentrate resources to promote innovation.
In the past two years, a large number of mid-waist game manufacturers, including Mihayou, Eagle Point, Paper, Lilith, Thunder, 4399, have made a number of innovative products (such as "Original God" and "A Thought of Escape"), or innovative marketing methods (such as "Civilization and Conquest" with "no VIP, zero loss of conscription" cut into SLG). There are several major features behind these innovations:
Strategic focus, focusing on more than 70% of the resources of enterprises to do a product, a wave of marketing (boutique to the extreme to become a single product);
Most of them are not listed, and the performance appraisal of the project team does not seek "short and fast", but is considered in a longer period (temporarily abandoning KPIs, ROI and other assessment indicators), allowing full attempts and moderate mistakes for innovation;
Embrace new technologies and new trends: In terms of research and development, the traditional workshop-style game research and development process is digitally transformed and industrialized; in marketing, it actively embraces byte-based star maps, cloud maps, and effect-oriented marketing.
To a certain extent, the serious homogenization of domestic games is the problem of enterprise management system, strict assessment methods, and solidification, and the mid-waist manufacturer system is relatively loose, advanced, and easy to innovate. For example, in terms of products, several Xianxia MMO that have recently been launched include "Sword Man World 3" and "Qing Yu Nian", with less innovation in gameplay and a lot of kryptonite points, which is the reason; in terms of marketing, Tencent does not dare to buy SLG on a large scale like "Civilization and Conquest" and "Three Kingdoms Strategic Edition", which is also the reason.
DataEye has heard the most complaints from practitioners in the past two years, not competition, not supervision, not the industry environment or even CPA, but the company's internal management system, assessment methods, and operating processes - the contradiction lies internally.
Failure is the mother of success, and making mistakes is the mother of innovation. Innovation often requires trial, and trying is bound to make mistakes. However, the management system, assessment methods, and operating processes of many game companies (especially listed companies) are not allowed to make mistakes, do not meet standards, and do not allow new attempts, which stifles innovation.
05. Summary
At first glance, the version number restarts, like a closed community distributing supplies, it does not matter whether you are already there, what is important is that the channel is opened, and it will always be your turn. So, party it!
But if it is more realistic, the version number is restarted, more like "after the great famine to get a hot potato", some eat of course very good, but the more important question is: how to eat to survive to the next meal.
At a time of drastic changes in the environment after 8 months, the uncertainty of the launch of new games is greater, but The Internet advertising is more certain - regardless of whether the game product is successful or not, the advertising industry is bound to be undefeated. Internet advertising is the first to benefit and the first to break out. This small explosion in the buying volume market is proof of this.
Old games will increase their investment, new games will accelerate the entry into the market, how to more effectively carry out content marketing, seize user attention, has become a mandatory question. The reference answer is likely to be: big data-driven creative output.
What about the gaming industry?
The core problem of the game industry lies in the innovation ability of game companies and the corporate system behind them. If it is too harsh, solidified, and rigid, resulting in ideas being locked in indicators, it is difficult to innovate boldly.
Mistakes are not allowed≈ innovation is discouraged.
At the moment of the restart of the version number, I hope that the game industry can take this opportunity to actively seek change and innovation from the top down, from the inside out.