Just this past weekend, the Russian side issued an ultimatum!
"After the ultimatum against Mariupol was rejected, Russia threatened to 'eliminate' the resistance," CNN said in a news release on the subject, saying that the Russian Defense Ministry confirmed on April 17 local time that its ultimatum for the surrender of ukrainian troops surrounded in Mariupol was ignored. The Russian side said: "If there is any further resistance, they will all be wiped out." ”
In a statement, the Russian Defense Ministry reportedly said Ukrainian soldiers who were surrounded by a steel mill in the city had been urged to "voluntarily lay down their arms and surrender in order to save their lives."
Reuters reported that Russia urged Ukrainian armed men and foreign mercenaries surrounded inside the Azov steel plant to lay down their arms and surrender from 6 a.m. to 1 p.m. Moscow time on April 17. However, according to the contents of the radio interception, the Kiev authorities banned negotiations on the issue of surrender, the Russian Defense Ministry said.
In addition, there are many new news:
1. Russian Ministry of Defense: The Russian army has completely eliminated the Ukrainian army, the Azov battalion and foreign mercenaries in the city of Mariupol
On April 16, local time, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the Russian army had completely eliminated the Azov battalion, foreign mercenaries and Ukrainian troops in the city of Mariupol. The Russian Defense Ministry also said that since the conflict, the cumulative number of Ukrainian troops, national guards and mercenaries has reached 23,367.
2. Zelenskiy: The Ukrainian side is ready to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and the status of Crimea
On April 17, local time, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in an interview with online media that Ukraine is ready to negotiate with Russia on Ukraine's refusal to join NATO and crimea's status, but only if the Russian side stops military operations and its armed forces withdraw from Ukrainian territory.
3. Chairman of the Russian State Duma: Zelenskiy's remarks on the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations are a measure to slow down the army
According to CCTV news, on April 17, local time, Chairman of the Russian State Duma (the lower house of parliament) Volodin said that Ukrainian President Zelenskiy's remarks on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations were a delaying strategy, and its intention was to buy time for military assistance from NATO. Volodyn said what Zelenskiy had to do was to withdraw his troops quickly from the Donbass region and not join the alliance.
4. Von der Leyen: The new round of EU sanctions against Russia will mainly target banks and energy
On April 17, local time, European Commission President von der Leyen revealed in an interview with the German newspaper Bild that the sixth round of sanctions proposed by the EU against Russia will mainly target the Russian Federal Savings Bank, Russia's largest commercial bank, and will take gradual measures to cut off the EU's oil and gas imports from Russia. Von der Leyen said the main goal of EU sanctions is to continue to squeeze Russia's oil and gas revenues.
It is also understood that the latest EU sanctions against Russia will not be introduced before the second round of voting in the French presidential election on the 24th of this month, so as not to affect the French election.
5. Russian Ministry of Defense: Russian forces destroy an arms and ammunition manufacturing plant in Kiev Oblast
According to a war report released by the Russian Defense Ministry on April 17, the Russian military has continued to strike a number of Ukrainian military targets over the past day and night, including the destruction of an arms and ammunition manufacturing plant in Kiev Oblast with high-precision missiles.
Separately, the Russian Defense Ministry said it intercepted cables showing that the Ukrainian government prohibited the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers and foreign mercenaries surrounded inside the Azov steel plant. According to the Russian side, according to the statements of the surrenderees, there are currently about 400 foreign mercenaries at the Azov steel plant.
6. Ukraine has demanded $50 billion in financial support from the Group of Seven
According to Reuters, Oleh Ustenko, economic adviser to the President of Ukraine, said that Ukraine has recently made a request to G7 countries, which requires the Group of Seven (G7) to provide financial support of 50 billion US dollars (equivalent to nearly 320 billion yuan) and consider issuing zero-coupon bonds to help it make up for the war-related budget deficit in the next 6 months. Ukraine's president's economic adviser also said Ukraine needs $1 trillion to make up for war losses.
7. Zelenskiy said the battle in Donbass would determine the fate of Ukraine
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said in an interview with CNN on the 17th that Ukraine will fight for The Donbass, which will determine the fate of Ukraine, and Ukraine will not give up the eastern territory of Ukraine in order to end the war with Russia.
Zelenskiy also said that if there is still a chance to negotiate, then Ukraine will continue to talk, but will not accept Russia's ultimatum. Zelenskiy also said that another version of the future direction of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is not ruled out, that is, Ukraine can fight with Russia for 10 years.
Last week, affected by external factors, the largest domestic weekly increase was crude oil commodities and oil commodities, Shanghai crude oil weekly increase of 10.33%, high sulfur fuel oil weekly increase of 11.00%, low sulfur fuel oil weekly increase of 11.56%, LPG weekly increase of 9.80%, palm oil weekly increase of 8.45%, vegetable oil weekly increase of 6.04%. Will these commodities continue their rally this week? And what factors need investors to pay attention to?
The focus of the market has changed, and the oil ban will have a huge impact on the global crude oil supply
Last week, international oil prices showed a trend of first suppressing and then rising, and oil prices rose sharply for three consecutive days. As of Last Friday, the NYMEX WTI main May contract closed at $106.54/b, up nearly 10% weekly; the ICE Brent main June contract closed at $111.66/b, a weekly gain of more than 10%. The domestic Shanghai crude oil main 2205 contract closed at 690 yuan / barrel, a weekly increase of nearly 12%.
"The main reason for the rise in oil prices last week is the news in the market that the EU intends to impose an oil ban on Russia in stages. The Eu has officially passed a fifth round of sanctions against Russia, banning the import of Russian coal and prohibiting most Russian trucks and ships from entering the EU. The current Russian oil embargo proposal will be negotiated as early as after the vote in France's final general election on April 24, and if the EU can overcome internal differences and finally implement the oil ban, it will once again have a huge impact on global crude oil supply. Du Bingqin, a crude oil fuel oil researcher at Everbright Futures, said.
Shenyin Wanguo Futures crude oil analyst Dong Chao told reporters that the main factor in the sharp rise in crude oil last week was that the market digested the news of the sharp release of reserves in the United States and OECD countries in the early stage, and Brent crude oil returned to the previous range of 100-120 US dollars / barrel after briefly breaking through the support of 100 US dollars / barrel. In addition, the March OPEC crude oil production data was not satisfactory, only 57,000 barrels more than in February, while OPEC needed to increase production by 250,000 barrels per day according to the previous agreement. At the same time, the actual output of OPEC in March was 800,000 bpd lower than the target output, of which Nigeria and Angola were collectively 640,000 bpd lower, considering the current situation of these two countries, it is difficult to effectively increase short-term production. Driven by the above factors, oil prices rebounded significantly last week.
What are the factors that currently dominate the rise and fall of crude oil?
Dong Chao believes that there are three main factors that dominate oil prices at present: First, the situation of the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the attitude of Europe. Russia and Ukraine are currently in a state of talking, and the switch of this state itself will cause oil price fluctuations. In addition, Europe's attitude is constantly changing, and Germany has always insisted that Russia is an important energy provider in Europe and cannot cut off its supply "one-size-fits-all". After that, we need to pay attention to whether Europe can pass the ban on crude oil from Russia. The second is the game between oil-producing countries and oil-using countries. Now crude oil is more like a turn-based game, chess players in their respective rounds, the trick of the consumer country is to continuously release a large number of reserves, while the oil producing country is strictly controlling the output. So far, OPEC countries have resisted the pressure very well. The third is some potential factors that may upset the balance. At present, oil prices are in a tight balance between supply and demand, and once an emergency occurs, it will cause large fluctuations in oil prices, such as Yemen's air strikes on Saudi Arabia, the aging of Libyan oil equipment and other previously unworthy small things will be magnified.
"At present, the risk of supply loss due to geopolitical factors still dominates oil price fluctuations." Du Bingqin said that this month, the world's three major institutions monthly reports once again cut the growth rate of global oil demand in 2022, EIA, IEA and OPEC cut 810,000 barrels / day, 260,000 barrels / day and 100,000 barrels / day, the market on the loss of demand is basically agreed, but there is still a divergence on the loss of supply. The IEA expects Russian supply losses of 1.5 million b/d and 3 million b/d in April and May, respectively, while OPEC+ production growth in March continues to fall short of expectations and remains cautiously ramped up, with global crude inventories at multi-year lows, and the impact of supply shortages on prices in the crude oil market is still difficult to fully subside.
What does the market need to focus on this week?
"The focus of the market is still on the reassessment of Russian supply losses." Du Bingqin said that the sanctions further triggered by the situation in Russia and Ukraine are still escalating, after the EU ban on Russian oil imports has not been implemented because some member states are highly dependent on Russian supplies. If the EU can overcome internal differences and finally implement an oil ban, it will once again have a huge impact on global crude oil supply. In the context of the current energy sanctions or will be increased, crude oil prices are expected to maintain a high and wide oscillation state as a whole.
Dong Chao told reporters that after a week of rebound, oil prices have entered a relatively balanced range, although there is still upward momentum, but it has begun to exhaust. Later, focusing on the April 24 French election and the EU talks after that, compared with the current President Macron, another candidate, Le Pen, is more inclined to Russia on the Russian-Ukrainian issue, and he is not inclined to impose energy sanctions on Russia.
The mismatch between supply and demand is the leading factor in the rise in oil and fat, and the future market needs to pay attention to sowing and epidemic situation
Palm oil and vegetable oil rose second only to crude oil and fuel oil last week, what are the factors that contributed to the sharp rise in oil and fat?
Liu Jinlu, a researcher at Guoyuan Futures, said that palm oil and vegetable oil rose sharply last week because of the multiple bullish resonance. On the one hand, the unexpected bullishness of the MPOB report is a verification of the reality of tight global oil and fat supply; on the other hand, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has deteriorated again, short-term export restrictions and the expectation of a decline in medium- and long-term production have made the subsequent supply of sunflower oil and rapeseed oil still in crisis, and global oil demand continues to shift to palm oil and soybean oil.
"The expectation of a sharp decline in The production of oilseed oilseeds in Ukraine due to the continued fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine is the main reason for the sharp rise in palm oil and vegetable oil last week." Jia Hui, a researcher at Zhonghui Futures, said.
Liu Jinlu believes that the main contradiction in the fundamentals of palm oil in the second quarter is whether the recovery of the supply side of the production area can meet the growth of global oil and fat demand, while the contradiction in the fundamentals of vegetable oil is whether Canada's new season rapeseed can meet expectations to fill the inventory shortage caused by last year's production cuts, and whether the supply of Rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine can be solved. Against the backdrop of an unannounced supply problem, there is a basis for oil and fat to continue to rise.
It is reported that the continuous fermentation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine has triggered concerns in the market about further shortages of oil and fat supplies. As the world's largest sunflower seed producer and exporter of sunflower oil, the market expects Ukraine's oilseed production to be halved in the new year, of which sunflower seed production is expected to be 9.8 million tons, far lower than the previous year's 16.9 million tons. The disruption of sunflower oil trade in the Black Sea region has led to a significant increase in EU imports of palm oil, with Malaysia's March export data showing a 48.3% increase in palm oil exports to the EU month-on-month. In addition, India, the world's second-largest consumer of vegetable oil, has also begun to seek alternatives to sunflower oil, and its palm oil imports in March increased by 18.7% from the previous month.
In addition, as a major exporter of palm oil, the issue of the recovery of pickers in the Malaysian Botanic Gardens remains unresolved, and last week Malaysia's Minister of National Origins Zuleda said that he would meet daily from April 15 to speed up the approval process for outsiders. At present, there are 75,000 palm oil harvesters, and the labor shortage is expected to affect 10%-15% of palm oil production.
The sharp decline in Canadian rapeseed production last year led to a record low global pool-to-sales ratio, while the recovery of Canadian rapeseed planting in the new year was less than expected to be normal, and the continued dry weather has intensified concerns about the recovery of Canadian rapeseed production. "Argentina, the world's third-largest vegetable oil exporter, has seen a trucker strike since last Monday, which has further boosted bullish sentiment in the market." Jia Hui said.
Liu Jinlu believes that from the perspective of the supply of palm oil in the mainland, subject to the cost side, the problem of inverted import profits in the mainland is difficult to solve in the short term, and buying ships in the second quarter is still not optimistic. Customs data in March showed that the mainland palm oil import forecast loading 142,900 tons, down 59.89% year-on-year. According to other data, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key areas of the mainland is about 293,000 tons, down from 51.48 tons in the same period last year.
The reporter learned in the interview that the new characteristics of the current market are that the systemic risk impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is becoming more and more prominent, and there is a game between the expected increase in planting and the growth of demand for oil and fat substitution.
"In the face of rising oil and fat prices, the market's willingness to consume has been suppressed to a certain extent." Jia Hui said that in order to cope with the adjustment of Indonesian palm oil export policy and the impact of the decline in Supply in Ukraine, India has begun to increase the purchase of soybean oil, and the continuous inversion of domestic palm oil import profits has also made the domestic import willingness insufficient, the domestic port palm oil inventory reached a historical low, the base of palm oil in Guangdong in September was more than 2,000 yuan / ton, the spot price difference of soybean dumplings in Jiangsu was -2,000 yuan or more, palm oil consumption will be suppressed, and the domestic palm oil market shows a situation of "low import and low consumption".
Liu Jinlu introduced that under the geopolitical conflict, the substitution effect of palm oil on sunflower oil and vegetable oil is becoming more and more obvious, and with the coming of Ramadan in some countries, the demand for oil and fat consumption will usher in a wave of boost. India imported palm oil at 539,800 tonnes in March 2022, up from 454,800 tonnes in February, and sunflower oil imports at 212,400 tonnes, up from 152,200 tonnes in February, according to the Indian Association of Solvent Extractors (SEA). However, according to market estimates, since India did not import sunflower oil from Ukraine in April, sunflower oil imports are expected to plummet to 80,000 tons in April.
In 2021, Canadian rapeseed production has been greatly reduced due to bad weather, the absolute inventory of global rapeseed is low, and under geopolitical conflicts, the supply of rapeseed in Russia and Ukraine, which accounts for more than 23% of the world, still has a crisis, and the pressure of Canadian spring sowing also provides support for the price of rapeseed on foreign plates. Recently, the profits of domestic imports of rapeseed and vegetable oil are still in an upside-down state, coastal oil mills are mainly wait-and-see, buying ships is not active, and the supply of vegetable oil is tight. Customs data show that the mainland's rapeseed oil import forecast loading in March was 104,100 tons, down 59.55% year-on-year, and rapeseed import forecast loading was 0.41 million tons, down 98.75% year-on-year.
Jia Hui believes that until the situation in Russia and Ukraine and the problem of palm oil picking in Malaysia are resolved, the tight supply of oil and fat is expected to continue, which will continue to support the trend of international oil prices. Relatively higher palm oil prices will lead to increased substitution of soybean oil, the price of soybean oil in the United States has reached a new high, and the purchase of palm oil in China and India will also be suppressed. The latest data show that Malaysia's palm oil exports fell by more than 20% month-on-month from April 1 to 15.
This article originated from Futures Daily