Since the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US sanctions against Russia have been increasing day by day, and many countries have also followed the pace of the United States to launch sanctions against Russia. Under several rounds of EU sanctions, the Russian economy has been severely affected. But looking at the Interior of the West, it is not monolithic. Polish Prime Minister Mikhail Morawiecki previously pointed out that Germany is the "main stumbling block" to Sanctions against Russia. Because Germany is the largest buyer of Russian energy in the European Union.
Data show that before the conflict, about 50 percent of the fossil fuels consumed in Germany came from Russia, including coal, 35 percent of oil and 55 percent of natural gas. It is precisely for this reason that the West strongly demands that Germany unite with the United Front and jointly sanction Russian energy. Under this call, the German vice chancellor took the lead in saying that Germany is reducing its dependence on Russia.
Subsequently, the German Finance Minister further pointed out that the occurrence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has made it impossible for trade between Germany and Russia to proceed normally, and Germany is cutting off its dependence on Russian gas, oil, energy and so on as much as possible. He also stated that Germany acknowledges its mistakes in foreign policy and energy policy, and Germany will make every effort to correct this problem.
Recently, Germany has made clear its latest attitude towards Russian energy, claiming that it will gradually get rid of Russia's energy dependence within two years. This has caused dissatisfaction from all walks of life in Germany, several top economic research institutions in Germany have given warnings, and the world's top rating agency S&P Global Chief Economist has also issued a warning, believing that Germany's move may lead to the breakdown of German-Russian trade, and eventually trigger a serious financial shock.
According to the Global Times quoted by Russia Today, Susanna Angler, a spokeswoman for the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Energy, said at a press conference that Germany is likely to stop importing oil into Russia from the end of this year and gradually stop importing Russian coal this autumn. As it is still heavily dependent on Russian gas, it is expected to stop imports by mid-2024. She also said that it would completely reduce its dependence on Russia's energy within two years, and germany is currently exploring how to fully promote the project, but there is no doubt that it will use "national forces".
However, for Germany's latest statement, many institutions are not optimistic. According to the Global Times, quoted by the U.S. Consumer News and Business Channel, S&P Global Chief Economist Paul M. Greenwald said on the 12th local time that if there is a "trade breakdown" between Germany and Russia, it may trigger a serious financial impact. He believes that this "trade breakdown" will seriously weaken the German manufacturing industry, which will lead to a "catastrophic" chain reaction such as GDP decline and employment decline, and will inevitably trigger a financial shock.
In addition to S&P Global, all walks of life in Germany have also reacted to this. The report pointed out that based on this, the 5 top economic research institutions in Germany made the latest forecasts and judgments. It is reported that according to the German Institute of Economic Research, the Kiel Institute, the Munich Institute of Economic Research, the Halle Institute of Economic Research and rheinland. According to the Westphalian Institute of Economic Research, if Germany completely cut off all energy supply with Russia, it will significantly reduce the growth rate of the German economy from 2.9% last year to 1.9%, and the subsequent economic situation is not optimistic.
These institutions also believe that if the import of Russian energy is stopped immediately, The inflation rate in Germany may increase sharply to 7.3% for the whole year, causing a total of 400,000 people to lose their jobs, and Germany will also face a major recession.
German Chancellor Scholz shares the same view on this point, having previously issued similar warnings. Several German trade unions are even more at stake: this will not only not lead to the development of the German economy, but also shut down major industries such as steel and chemicals.
At the same time, there was also opposition from all walks of life. According to a survey, only 30 percent of the people currently support an immediate ban on the import of Russian energy, and most people are hesitant about this, especially the recent sudden snowfall in Europe, due to high energy prices, some people have gone up the mountain to cut firewood. Perhaps Germany needs further research on this issue before it can draw real conclusions.