Printing to produce the iPhone 13, many people scoffed, laughing: want to be "smashed" again? However, these people forgot a question: what if the third brother could really eat our meal? Cook is a personal essence, will not do bad things, three days two ends to india, must be very confident in the third brother. This is going to be done, it is a good thing for Apple, it is also a good thing for the third brother, and it is a dangerous thing for us. Why? And listen to me slowly.
India to be "self-reliant"
The population of the third brother has surged in recent years, and manpower has become a resource for the rotten street. In the eyes of capital, it is leeks everywhere waiting for them to cut. At the same time, the third brother is also riveted and wants to take advantage of this advantage to grab our job. In recent years, a vigorous "self-reliance" plan has also been put forward, and three major things have been done.
The first thing is to invite international factories to build factories in India without sparing any effort on and off the field, give money, give people, give resources, and learn from us to attract investment; the second thing is to vigorously develop local manufacturing technologies, such as communication equipment, new energy vehicles, and semiconductors; the third thing is to kick out our products, such as dismantling Huawei equipment, banning mobile software, etc. At the end of last year, Sange also formulated a ten-billion-dollar incentive plan to attract international semiconductor companies and display manufacturing companies to invest in factories and drive the development of manufacturing industry.
The third brother's approach just follows the will of the United States (it may even be that the United States is secretly fueling the waves). Our attack on high-end manufacturing has made the United States somewhat "unstoppable", and he is happy to see a potential third party break into our backyard and light a fire. Under the game, foreign-funded enterprises have also detected the wind direction early and want to get rid of their dependence on us. Apple, isn't it the most typical case?
Playing iron also needs to be hard
What is more dangerous is that we are not facing the attack of a certain "little brother", but the collective charge launched by many little brothers. In the past, we always said that the smaller the place and the smaller the number of people, we could not snatch away many things; the printing was bloated, backward, and not enough; South America was even more unskilled and had few talents. Now, if you think about it again, sooner or later something will happen.
The global manufacturing industry is like a pyramid, the low-end manufacturing plate is large and at the bottom; the high-end manufacturing industry has a high threshold, few players, and is at the top; and the mid-end manufacturing is not up and down, in the middle. It took us a long time to climb the stairs and gain a foothold in the middle. This is the most dangerous time. The people at the top have closed the door and imposed a blockade strategy on us, preventing us from going up and eating the cake, and the middle and bottom cakes of the "World Factory" that we are proud of are also being taken away.
In 2010, our manufacturing scale exceeded the United States for the first time, and since then it has ranked first in the world for 11 consecutive years. In the process, we slackened off. And the development of manufacturing industry, if it does not advance, it will retreat. In 2016, the proportion of mainland manufacturing to GDP was still at 32.45%, and by 2020, this figure fell to 26.18%. The data shows that the proportion of mainland manufacturing industry to GDP has declined year by year, and since 2011, there has been a phenomenon of "nine consecutive falls". It wasn't until 2021 that the data began to pick up, reaching 27.4 percent. But this is still based on the impact of the epidemic and the impact of the service industry in the context of the damage.
People with a heart will find that in the 14th Five-Year Plan, "maintaining the proportion of manufacturing industry is basically stable" has replaced "focusing on cultivating service industries". Experts also give advice: only on the basis of stabilizing the basic disk, impacting the high-end manufacturing industry and becoming a member of the pyramid tip, can we be safe. From "big but not strong" to "big and strong", this road is no longer impossible. But it is difficult for the ship to turn around, we have to complete the industrial upgrading, there are some gangrene of bones, do not go to drop it.
Why is industrial upgrading so difficult
We are engaged in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, new energy, hardware and software, but the results seem to be less than satisfactory. Taking semiconductors as an example, we have developed a 2025 chip self-sufficiency plan and invested a lot of money.
After several years of development, what happened to chip foundry? The data shows that the top ten chip foundry enterprises in China have subsidiaries of five foreign-funded enterprises. In the period from 2016 to 2020, among the top ten companies, although the sales revenue of domestic chip foundry enterprises rose by 20.3 billion yuan, the proportion of sales revenue fell by 16.3%. This shows that it seems that we have spent a lot of effort to develop chip foundry, but the actual result is that our growth rate is not as fast as those foreign companies that "fight away".
It is as if we are just a "magpie's nest", not only did not conceive our own children, but also became a sojourn for overseas high-end industries. This phenomenon continues, and the local manufacturing industry wants to upgrade to the high-end, which is extremely unoptimistic. Why is that? The time and place are favorable, where are we? In the author's opinion, there are three main reasons why our industrial upgrading is difficult.
Why
The first reason: the disorderly expansion of capital and the low utilization rate. The so-called soldiers and horses have not moved, and the grain and grass have gone first. There was no food or grass, and the soldiers and horses starved to death on the road. Our grain and grass, on the other hand, are constantly flowing to the places that capital "likes." For example, e-commerce, in 2021, Meituan's revenue is 179.1 billion yuan, R&D investment is 16.7 billion yuan, and R&D accounts for less than 10% of revenue; Tencent's revenue is 560.1 billion yuan, R&D investment is 51.9 billion yuan, and R&D accounts for less than 10% of revenue; and Huawei, which takes the industry, has a revenue of 636.8 billion yuan, a R&D investment of 142.7 billion yuan, and A research and development accounted for 22.4% of revenue, far exceeding Internet e-commerce.
Speaking of real estate, in 2021, the added value of real estate in the mainland will be 7.76 trillion yuan, accounting for 6.8% of GDP. In other words, just one real estate is comparable to 1/4 of the entire manufacturing industry. According to the data, the scale of mainland real estate exceeds 62 trillion US dollars, more than the sum of Japan, the United States, Britain and Australia, and can be said to be the world's largest asset. E-commerce can at least drive the development of some digital technologies and provide software competitiveness, but real estate has little growth in hard power. Take "so-and-so" as an example, keep playing with leverage, but in the end, there is no chicken feathers left.
Capital makes money through operation, but it does not use it on the blade. Not only that, the part of the capital that invests money in manufacturing has not done a good job, and their comprador thinking is even more harmful. The concept of "building is better than buying, buying is not as good as renting" is the favorite of these capitals, through the purchase of foreign advanced equipment and products, direct production and sales, earn the difference, compared to self-developed technology, these "fast money" to earn is much easier. For example, "a certain thought", no innovation at all, has become the "leek cutting machine" of upstream enterprises.
The second reason: low wages for manufacturing workers and low sense of social identity. At the beginning of the year, Cao Dewang raised a question: Why would young people prefer to deliver takeaways rather than enter factories? This is because the current concept of society is still stuck in the fact that the worker is a "lower nine-class" occupation. College students do not want to enter the factory because of the problem of face, and even parents think that entering the factory is a shameful thing. There is no sense of social identity, so that young people who originally wanted to enter the factory are discouraged.
Conceptual issues aside, a common "gap" has further led to a shortage of manufacturing talent. Compared with overseas, the treatment is not high enough, the work is not free enough, so there are more top talents lost; compared with other industries, the working hours are long, the treatment is low, and the sense of gain is low, so it is better to go to deliver food, and the technical talents cannot be cultivated. Man is not made of steel, and no one can walk on a dark and endless road with a passion for blood.
Comprador thinking has fueled the arrogance of capital, there is such a phenomenon in the industry, some companies are very slack for equipment updates, they are more inclined to treat employees as donkeys, instead of equipment updates, so as to save more costs and make more money. And technology growth? Not at all.
The third reason comes from external pressures. As we said at the beginning, our goal now is to hit high-end manufacturing, that is, to become the people at the top of the pyramid. There are two ways to do this, one is to win the world in the "new track" and make a fuss in the global "new market"; the other is to catch up on the "old track" and even overtake in the corner. The new track represents the "future", while the old track is the "lifeblood" of the people at the top of the pyramid. They are accustomed to the lucrative profits of high-end manufacturing and eat a mouthful of oil. At this time, if someone wants to stand up and grab the cake, they will inevitably step on it a few times.
In the beginning, when we wanted to engage in technology, they fought a price war and starved our R&D enterprises; then, we did not hesitate to throw money into technology, and they framed us and said that we stole technology; later, when we finally had enterprises emerge, they began to jam their necks and wanted to collapse our enterprises; finally, we were not even afraid of the neck of the card, so they joined forces to engage in blockades, and even the business was not done for us. In fact, on the road of industrial upgrading, there have always been people who are silently working hard, but the United States is so shameless, exhausting all means to strangle our high-end in the cradle.
How to fix it
To solve the first problem, it is unrealistic to rely solely on the strength of individuals or groups. It is necessary for the state to take the lead in investment, subsidize projects, and unite universities, research institutions, domestic-funded enterprises and other organizations to overcome technical difficulties. At the end of last year, the Ministry of Science and Technology announced a key research and development plan for "new display and strategic electronic materials", which included Xiamen University, Nanjing University, Chinese Academy of Sciences, BOE and other organizations. To "concentrate forces on doing great things," we must make good use of the advantages of the system.
Second, we must strictly control the flow of capital, strengthen capital supervision, and prevent monopolies from emerging. Taking e-commerce as an example, the official has repeatedly struck a crackdown on monopoly, Ali has been fined 18.2 billion, Meituan has been fined 3.4 billion, and the merger of "Huya" and "Douyu" has been stopped. Taking real estate as an example, it is strictly forbidden to "speculate in houses", introduce "three red lines" financing regulations, strictly control capital to continue to expand in a disorderly manner in the real estate industry, so that enterprises such as "a certain big" can no longer raise funds at will, and also effectively inhibit the barbaric growth of capital.
To solve the second problem, we need to start conceptually. Inherent concepts are deeply rooted in society, and great efforts should be made to publicize them. Educate the society, improve the society's sense of identity with manufacturing talents, and college students can enter the factory to have a sense of gain and happiness. Of course, only shout slogans, not bread. That's hooliganism.
When Wang Anshi carried out drastic reforms, he summed up a set of plans for talents: "teach, nurture, take, and let them go", which is very worthy of reference. "Teaching" means that the teaching content of the school should meet the development needs of society. At present, the mainland is in urgent need of industrial upgrading, so manufacturing-related majors should increase investment in education and improve the soil from the roots. At the same time, starting with education, we can also start to educate society from the root, so that society can have more recognition of manufacturing practitioners.
To raise it is bread. This bread is not only the salary, but also the working environment, enterprise management system, corporate philosophy, etc. In short, it is necessary to ensure that manufacturing talents work comfortably, work with peace of mind, and can rely on this job to eat and support their families. Taking it and letting it go is a good selection system and meritocracy. That is to say, on the basis of recognizing manufacturing talents and ensuring the life of manufacturing talents, excellent talents can shine. In this way, talents can not only work comfortably, but also work enthusiastically.
By "teaching, nurturing, taking, and letting it go", the soil of the entire manufacturing industry will become better, and it will not worry about growing towering trees.
To solve the third problem, the ancients also gave us a solution: vertical and horizontal. The "group" at the top of the pyramid has the big brother of beauty to take the lead, and the expansion is not OK. But the big brother is not a one-handed covering of the sky, and within the group, it is impossible to "say a word". Moreover, on the surface, we have conflicts with their interests, but there are also many interests related, which makes there room for action. We can unite those who still want face against those who play hooligans.
Big Brother's family is not monolithic, and we can also look for opportunities to unite interests and fight against the single-minded desire to bring us down. Finally, we can also make good relationships with those players in the middle of the pyramid and at the bottom of the pyramid. Build factories in their place to cooperate, absorb the talents, and unite them to fight against those American groups that are obsessed with the past, so that more countries can eat the cake at the top.
summary
In the past, we always thought that we had a big advantage, and Southeast Asia was all rookie. But now India's catch-up shows that the crisis still exists, and perhaps many readers will think that this crisis is not big. But even if it's not big now, what about later? Moreover, our goal is the sea of stars, always fighting with a group of little brothers in the middle and low-end manufacturing industry, that is not a thing, is it?
Those "superiority explosion" beauty groups actually look down on us, and they are also very wary of us. Like ASML, changing words one day at a time is simply playing us like monkeys. It is true that he has difficulties, but this is not a reason to fool us. Therefore, we have to squeeze them down, no matter how bad, at least to sit on an equal footing, no longer need to look at the "stinky face".
From a security point of view, if the industry does not upgrade, it will eventually endanger ourselves. Therefore, industrial upgrading is imminent, and the more this time, the more it can not be urgent. A radish a pit, the steps are big, easy to pull the egg. Today, the author from his own point of view, give some suggestions, there are certainly some imperfections, but also hope that readers can not hesitate to correct, brainstorm, and jointly contribute their own contribution to our star sea. (Bluegrass)
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