Multiple individual strands of the tail plate fried plate! Speak out and maintain the stability of the capital market
Macro policy
1. The latest voice: coordinated maintenance of capital market stability
On April 13, the website of the Discipline Inspection Commission published an article entitled "The Discipline Inspection and Supervision Group of the Securities Regulatory Commission Based on Its Functions and Responsibilities to Promote The Strengthening of Securities Supervision and Law Enforcement with Strong Supervision", which stated that this year's government work report will fully implement the stock issuance registration system as one of the tasks in 2022. In order to ensure the smooth progress of the reform, the discipline inspection and supervision team stationed at the CSRC focused on supervising the performance of supervision duties by the party committee of the CSRC and the party committee of the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, and jointly carried out on-site inspections with the party committee of the CSRC around key reform tasks such as the reform of the registration system and the normalization of delisting.
Comments: The current round of policy bottom has appeared, and the market bottom probability will lag behind, the current A-share is still in the bottoming stage, the confirmation of the market bottom signal needs to see the further development of the ultra-conventional policy or the bottoming out of the macro economy, as well as the release of overseas negative disturbances. Although the return probability of the broad-based index is still negative, and accompanied by the emergence of a strong industry to make up for the decline, the stage of the largest market decline slope has passed, and structural opportunities have begun to gradually appear, and A shares are not without opportunities.
2. The import and export data in the first quarter was released
On April 13, the latest data released by the General Administration of Customs of China showed that the mainland's foreign trade achieved double-digit growth in the first quarter, maintaining positive year-on-year growth for 7 consecutive quarters, and achieving a stable start! Li Kuiwen, spokesman for the General Administration of Customs and director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, said at a press conference of the State Council New Office on April 13 that the total import and export value of the mainland's trade in goods in the first quarter of this year was 9.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 10.7% year-on-year.
Which products are better exported? Li Kuiwen introduced that in the first quarter, the mainland exported mechanical and electrical products of 3.05 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.8%,; exported labor-intensive products of 900.05 billion yuan, an increase of 10.9%.
Comments: Overall, mainland exports in the first quarter still maintained a double-digit high growth momentum, showing that in the context of the global epidemic entering the third year, the advantage of "Made in China" is still obvious. This also indicates that except for April, the downward momentum of mainland export growth will be relatively moderate in the coming period, and it is still expected to achieve positive growth of about 5.0% throughout the year. Considering that the scale of the trade surplus in the first quarter reached the highest level in the same period of history, excluding price factors, it is estimated that the pull of net exports on GDP growth in the first quarter will remain at about 1 percentage point, and will continue to maintain a positive pull of 0.5 to 0.7 percentage points in the second quarter. Affected by the current cold real estate and the impact of economic activities disturbed by the epidemic, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased, and in this context, external demand is becoming an important factor in stabilizing the macroeconomic market.
3, Asian countries price rise has broken expectations under high inflation there is no "pure land"
Food inflation in Asia (excluding China) has risen by 2.7 percentage points to 4.5% since October 2021, according to a briefing by Oxford Economics. The agency expects this upward trend to continue into the second quarter and, for some countries, possibly until the beginning of the third quarter. Among them, net food-importing countries are most under pressure from rising global prices, including several developed countries in the Asian region and the Philippines, while net food-exporting countries such as Indonesia and Thailand are also facing price pressures because they are equally dependent on imports of certain crops, which are now affected by conflict.
Comments: Due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts in European spring farming, the imbalance between supply and demand of global grain may gradually appear. At present, the pork project with large weight is still the mainland CPI before the flattening effect, but combined with the amount of barn, the inflection point of the current round of pig cycle may come in the second half of this year, thus pushing up the inflation center in the second half of the year. The uncertainty of the future trend of the PPI is higher than that of the CPI, because the PPI is greatly affected by global commodity prices, and due to the uncertainty of the Russo-Ukrainian War and the amplification effect of global capital market sentiment, the sub-itemization of the means of production in the PPI may be greatly disturbed. But with the continuation of geopolitical conflicts and increased trade sanctions, energy prices are likely to remain in place for longer. Under the influence of the high PPI base last year, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI is still a high probability event, but the speed of the decline may slow down than expected.
4. The world's largest independent oil trader: It will stop trading Russian crude oil before the end of the year
Vitol Group, the world's largest independent oil trader, said it intends to stop trading crude oil and petroleum products from Russia altogether by the end of the year. A Vido Group spokesperson told the media in an email that the amount of Russian oil handled by Vido "will be significantly reduced in the second quarter due to the decline in the current contract volume." We expect this to stop completely by the end of 2022. The company reiterated that it will not participate in any new Russian crude oil and products trading.
Comments: The complexity of the Russian-Ukrainian incident makes the pace of subsequent commodity price changes full of uncertainty, taking crude oil as an example, the strategy of Europe and the United States to sanction Russian oil and gas exports is to limit Russian exports at the same time, as far as possible to promote OPEC, Iran and Venezuela to release production capacity and production. The rhythm of the Russian-Ukrainian events may be crucial. If the Russian-Ukrainian incident continues to stalemate, the sanctions imposed by Europe, the United States and Russia will continue. Then due to the lack of oil and gas production in Russia, global crude oil supply and demand will remain in a tight state, and crude oil will continue to remain at a high level of more than $100 / barrel. If the Russian-Ukrainian event eases after 1 or 2 months, and the restrictions on Russian oil and gas in Europe and the United States are relaxed, this may lead to a short-term increase in crude oil supply, which will significantly superimpose the release of sentiment, oil price volatility will intensify, and in the short term, it may fall sharply or even fall below $100 / barrel.
Industry dynamics
1, A share tail suddenly dived nearly 3800 stocks fell a number of stocks crazy fried board
On April 13, the Shanghai index was weak in the morning, and once rose and turned red in the afternoon, and then fell back again; the Shenzhen index and the ChiNext index weak shock probed, the Shenzhen index fell more than 1.5%, the ChiNext index fell more than 2%; the turnover of the two cities shrank again, the full-day turnover was less than 900 billion yuan, and the northbound capital had a slight net outflow. Nearly 3,800 individual stocks in the two cities fell, and many popular stocks such as Qianjing Garden, Sanjiang Shopping, China Reserve Shares, and Friendship Group were fried.
Comments: The current downward trend of the market has not been effectively reversed, and interference factors such as the external Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Fed's interest rate hike still exist; the domestic new crown epidemic situation is still severe, the downward pressure on the economy is still large, and the market may still maintain a shock grinding bottom trend for a long time. Under the expectation of "steady growth" and counter-cyclical regulation, pay close attention to the introduction and landing of various regulatory policies. As the vanguard of "steady growth", the infrastructure sector can continue to pay attention, while the future performance of the chemical, consumer and supermarket retail sectors in the context of inflation can be expected and can be properly concerned.
2. Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Will continue to improve the construction of the national industrial Internet big data center
On April 13, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "2022 Work Plan of the Industrial Internet Special Working Group", which will continue to improve the construction of the national industrial Internet big data center and coordinate the construction of regional and industry sub-centers. Specific measures include accelerating the construction of 5G fully connected factories. Support industrial enterprises to comprehensively use edge computing and other technologies to improve the level of networking in all aspects of production. Continue to build an energy industry Internet private network platform system。 Based on the private network platform, strengthen the convergence of economic and consumption indicators in the energy industry.
Comments: The data center industry chain is expected to fully benefit from the plan. The data center industry chain is long, including IT equipment such as servers and switches, supporting equipment such as heat dissipation and racks, data center construction, operation and maintenance, etc. The promotion of "counting the east and counting the west" is expected to further stimulate investment in the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain, and appropriate attention can be paid to the relevant companies in the industrial chain.
3. Guangdong: Promote the layout of advanced nuclear energy industry In Yangjiang and other places, we will concentrate on planning new nuclear power industrial parks
On April 13, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial Government issued the "14th Five-Year Plan for Energy Development in Guangdong Province" on April 13, proposing to promote the layout of advanced nuclear energy industries. Promote the continuous development and improvement of the nansha and Longgang nuclear power industrial park bases, promote the research and development and manufacturing of third- and fourth-generation nuclear power supporting equipment, carry out the localization of nuclear power welding materials and nuclear-grade fin tubes, and encourage the landing of nuclear-grade pipelines, valves and key accessories. In Yangjiang and other places, we will concentrate on planning new nuclear power industrial parks, build the CGN Advanced Fuel Development Center and natural uranium reserves, and promote the landing of a number of major projects and scientific research infrastructure such as nuclear power environmental protection supporting projects and nuclear fuel cycle facilities.
Comments: China's attitude towards the development of nuclear power is positive and clear, the third generation of nuclear power technology is mature, the nuclear power boom is expected to continue to improve, and the short-term domestic batch construction/ nuclear waste reprocessing + medium- and long-term fourth-generation nuclear power / nuclear power exports are expected to open up the growth space of nuclear power. Companies with a high market share and a high proportion of nuclear power business in the nuclear power segment can pay due attention.
4. The country's first affordable rental housing REITs project has been submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission
On April 13, the reporter learned that breakthroughs have been made in the issuance of affordable rental housing infrastructure REITs products, and the Shenzhen Talent Settlement Group project has recently been submitted to the National Development and Reform Commission, becoming the first officially declared affordable rental housing REITs project in the country.
Comments: The affordable rental housing REITs project is an effective policy tool for implementing the decision-making and deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council on accelerating the establishment of a multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee, and rent-purchase housing system, which is conducive to broadening the source of funds for the construction of affordable rental housing, better attracting the participation of social capital, promoting the transformation of the industry to a new development model, and achieving stable and healthy development. On the one hand, the policy shows the importance that the state attaches to affordable rental housing in 2022, and on the other hand, it provides support for enterprises to participate in the construction of affordable rental housing, which can further promote the transformation of real estate investment from incremental to stock.
Global markets
U.S. stock market: On Wednesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively closed higher. As of the close, the Dow Jones was up 1.01 percent at 34,564.59 points; the Nasdaq was up 2.03 percent at 13,643.59 points; and the S&P 500 was up 1.12 percent at 4,446.59 points.
On the intraday, large technology stocks rose all the time, Apple up 1.63%, Amazon up 3.15%, Meta up 0.40%, Google-A up 1.71%, Microsoft up 1.97%, Netflix up 1.84%.
Popular Chinese stocks rose collectively, Alibaba rose 0.28%, JD.com rose 3.19%, Pinduoduo rose 5.88%, Bilibili rose 5.21%, Baidu rose 2.81%, New Oriental rose 0.27%, NetEase rose 3.74%, Tencent Music rose 2.87%, iQiyi rose 1.65%, Didi rose 3.25%, and Wuxin Technology rose 11.05%.
European stock markets: On Wednesday, European time, the main European stock index rose and fell, as of the close, the BRITISH FTSE 100 index closed at 7580.80 points, up 4.14 points, or 0.06% from the previous session; the French CAC40 index closed at 6542.14 points, up 4.73 points, or 0.07% from the previous session; the German DAX30 index closed at 14076.44 points, down 48.51 points, or 0.34% from the previous session.
International oil prices: On Wednesday, EST, international oil prices rose sharply. As of the close of the day, light crude futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.65, or 3.63%, to close at $104.25 a barrel; Brent crude futures for June delivery rose $4.14, or 3.96%, to close at $108.78 a barrel.
International gold prices: On Wednesday, EST, the international gold price rose. The most actively traded June gold futures price on the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures market rose $8.6 from the previous session on the 13th, closing at $1984.7 an ounce, or 0.44%.
Major currencies: The onshore yuan closed at 6.3678 yuan against the dollar on Wednesday night, down 15 points from Tuesday's overnight close. Trading volume of $19.162 billion. The dollar index fell on the 13th. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.42 percent on the day, closing at 99.8750 at the end of the day. As of the end of the New York currency market, 1 euro was exchanged for $1.0889, up from $1.0834 in the previous session, 1 pound sterling to $1.3110, up from $1.3007 in the previous session, and 1 dollar to 125.6030 yen, up from 125.2800 yen in the previous session.
In the evening, there was news, the first is [timely use of monetary policy tools such as RRR reduction], the second is [deployment of policy measures to promote consumption, help stabilize the basic economic disk and ensure the improvement of people's livelihood], the RRR reduction is still good for real estate, banks and infrastructure real estate this piece is about to become an immortal bird, first of all, the leading Tianbao infrastructure at night good news, profit 4951W, year-on-year turnaround losses into profits, look at this good can stabilize the decline in today's Tianbao infrastructure, the back row will also be stable. The first board, Jingneng Real Estate yesterday trended well, in the afternoon on the board in one go there is no pressure, and the plate is relatively small. On the other hand, CCCC real estate is quite powerful, these days such a super fluctuation, the earth board, high diving down stop, yesterday fell stop and pulled up, the amount can be relative to the previous short board that day or shrinkage, inside several big funds are still in the second wave of the warehouse lock game. In the general direction, oversold pan-consumption will usher in a rebound window of time.
Yesterday also said, consumption of this piece, liquor is definitely impossible to avoid, liquor: Shanxi Fenjiu (1 quarterly report significantly exceeded expectations), liquor (1-2 months of net profit significantly exceeded expectations), liquor performance throughout the day is acceptable, not very strong with nor weak, leading the rise is the concept of small ticket liquor stocks, than good Xingtai liquor and golden seed wine. If it is Shanxi Fenjiu and Liquor, which are individual stocks that exceed expectations, lead and rise sharply, then it can be judged that Qiangjin actually led the rise yesterday and this morning by Huangtai Liquor and Golden Seed Liquor, indicating that the funds for long liquor are still hesitant and lack of confidence.
So I chose a liquor stock with a small market value. In addition, yesterday's more resistant to falling is that the oversold food receipts rose in turn. Because yesterday's disk was too chaotic, the state of the big scuffle, the various positives after the close, and another reverse stimulus to the disk. Today should be a repair, the reduction of this tool is not the first time to use, the market is mostly taking the road of high and low, there is no suitable target, not to say that you have to buy, it is better to wait a few days, wait and see for a few days! Wait until the market returns to normal mood, and then come again. After all, if there is really a market, it is not bad for one or two days.
People who do short-term always feel that if they don't buy a day, they miss it. But in the past period of time, you have found that there are indeed many opportunities, but the corresponding pits are more. The recent market, the actual combat is very difficult, every day a variety of fancy harvesting, sometimes want to pattern a hand, often is a large face, which is related to the current overall market environment. With the short-term split, most of the active funds are either caught in a chain of meat cuts, or suppressed by recent market sentiment and dare not sell again. Next week, CNOOC is estimated to be listed, and it will also form a lot of blood draw on the market, and the decline rate of this wave may be slower than the wave of 3.3-3.15 days (straight down), so this wave of decline may lead to the daily bottom divergence structure of all three major indexes. Today, pay attention to whether the market can reverse the yang line, if it can, the time for the market to create a new low will continue to be postponed for a few days; if the market cannot reverse yesterday's yin line, then Friday may continue to create a new low.