The Paper's special contributor Zhang Yutao
On April 10, France held the first round of voting in the presidential election. Unsurprisingly, the two candidates who made it to the second round of voting, as in the 2017 election, were France's current president, Macron, and Marlena Le Pen, a candidate from the far-right Rassemblement National.
On April 11, 2022, local time, Denarin, France, the current French President Macron met with the local people. Surging image
According to the French Ministry of the Interior, which is currently responsible for organizing the elections, Macron won 27.84% of the vote in the first round of voting, and Le Pen won 23.15% of the vote, and the two will compete for the presidency in the second round of voting on April 24.
In third place was Jean-Luc Merlanghorn from the radical left party La France insoumise. The elderly politician, who has already run in three presidential elections, although he failed to make it to the second round, 21.95% of the vote is also the best result for him and his party. And in the dark horse of this election, which has attracted a lot of controversy since last fall, another far-right candidate, Eric Zemoor, received only 7.07% of the vote and came in fourth.
The results of the first round of voting clearly marked the complete end of the political situation in French politics, in which the Socialiste and the Republican Party monopolized the left and right wings of the left and right, and replaced it with a three-party situation: La République en marche, which represented the progressive forces in the middle, and "unyielding France", which represented the radical left. (Mélang-hsiung) and the National Coalition, which represents far-right conservative forces.
The results of the first round of voting in the 2022 French general election can be described as a "copy" of the results of the first round of the general election 5 years ago, so the question in everyone's mind now is whether the second round of voting will also repeat the results of 5 years ago.
The number of votes cast by candidate for the first round of balloting
Victims of "useful votes" and further rising far-right forces
Valérie Pecresse, a candidate from the traditional right-wing Republican Party, won no more than 5 percent of the vote in the first round. This prevented her and her party from receiving the five million euros of state reimbursement for campaign funds, so much so that after the results were announced, they had to raise money among their own supporters to repay previous bank loans. Along with her was the Socialist Party candidate, Anne Hidalgo, whose 1.74 percent share of the vote was the socialist party's lowest since its founding, which contributed two presidents to the French Fifth Republic.
Nicolas Peytout, a commentator at France's radio Europe 1, analyzed this: "There is no doubt that they are all victims of 'useful voting'. Pécrés's supporters hope to support Macron in the first round to ensure that the latter can more effectively fend off far-right candidates in the second round. Mr. Mei, on the other hand, got plenty of votes in the first round from supporters of other leftist candidates, as he was the most likely leftist candidate to overtake Le Pen and enter the second round for a face-to-face debate with Macron. (Editor's note: "Useful vote" is to vote for candidates who are considered more likely to be elected, which is a strategic vote that prevents third-party candidates from winning elections) Of course, following this logical analysis, it is not difficult to see why Zemur, who also belongs to the far-right political leanings, ended up with even less than 10% of the vote.
Under this "useful vote" logic, although it is conducive to ensuring the most promising candidates and the greatest possible unity of forces, the price is that the Socialist Party and the Right Republican Party, which have always represented the left wing, have become victims and face a situation of reorganization or demise after the election.
Shortly after the preliminary results were announced, Olivier Faure, the first secretary of the French Socialist Party, called on the various left-wing parties to regroup to prepare for the subsequent National Assembly elections. However, with such a low percentage of votes from its partisan candidates, it is doubtful whether this regroupment around the Socialist Party will ultimately succeed. On the right, according to Le Monde, Republican former French President Nicolas Sarkozy is secretly negotiating with Macron's party. If Macron is willing to meet the series of proposals proposed by Sarkozy in the election of the new government as prime minister and in the elections to the National Assembly, Sarkozy is willing to use his influence within the party to promote the two parties to unite as an intermediary.
It is undeniable that the conditions proposed by Sarkozy are not so easy to meet, especially the requirement that the prime minister should meet Sarkozy's "recommendation", which breaks the rules since the establishment of the Fifth Republic by General de Gaulle. However, despite the conditions of such a lion's wide opening, Macron did not resolutely refuse. After all, for him at the moment, any union is crucial for the second round.
This election is the third time that the far right has entered the final competition. Prior to that, the far right had reached the second round twice in 2002 and 2017. However, between the two rounds of voting in those two general elections, there was a "front républician", in which political forces of various factions united to resist the far-right candidate. However, with the further rise of the far right, the "Republican Front" that has been resisting the far right may not be "automatically activated" as it was before.
Choose Macron, who has been plagued by diplomatic maneuvering, scandals and tactical blunders
Part of the reason for this is macron's failure to allocate sufficient energy to his re-election campaign and the "McKinsey scandal" that broke out in mid-March. In the near term, it is related to its strategy and the international situation.
Since the escalation of the situation in Russia and Ukraine in early 2022, Macron has repeatedly postponed his candidacy, so that he did not officially announce his candidacy until the last day before the deadline for his candidacy. For a long time after the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Macron's agenda was occupied by various diplomatic mediations and summits, and he did not have the energy to build momentum for his campaign because of the diplomatic situation. He was unable to attend many rallies because of the late announcement of his candidacy for election, and even the fairly simple direct dialogue between the people was repeatedly postponed or even cancelled due to the busy diplomatic schedule. It wasn't until April 2, a week before the first round of voting, that Macron's only campaign rally before the first round of voting was held in Paris, and the only one he personally attended.
In addition, Macron's campaign team also made mistakes in strategy formulation. Under the influence of the "flag gathering effect" in the early stage of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, his willingness to vote in the polls even exceeded 30%. His team believes it can win more votes to secure re-election thanks to its excellent performance in diplomatic mediation. However, as the conflict continues and multiple subsequent effects emerge, the French people's concerns about purchasing power go beyond the topic of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and once again become the most concerned topic in this election. During this period, Macron's team failed to capture the turn of public opinion in a timely manner, not only lacking enough publicity for Macron's campaign platform, but also failing to respond to topics of public concern in a timely manner. The French newspaper Le Monde even joked: "Macron thinks he can win the election by calling Zelenskiy and Putin." ”
The "McKinsey scandal" that broke out in mid-March has forced Macron to once again divide his media exposure time to prioritize his own mine clearance. During the epidemic, the French media disclosed that Macron's government hired consulting firm McKinsey for 12 million euros to deal with the new crown epidemic. The Senate presented a report on March 17 titled "The Impact of Private Consulting Firms on Public Policy" after a four-month investigation. In particular, the report notes that McKinsey is not only involved in decisions related to major public interests, such as COVID-19 vaccination programs and housing subsidy reforms, but also failed to pay corporate income tax to France through tax avoidance between 2011 and 2020, to which France paid millions of euros in commissions between 2018 and 2020. Following the release of the Senate report, French prosecutors have launched a tax fraud and money laundering investigation.
As the election vote approaches, the news deepens the stereotype of a member of Macron's global elite that rivals have used the opportunity to question his favoritism in his partnership with McKinsey. Although the investigation is still inconclusive, the scandal has undoubtedly taken a toll on Macron's image.
Le Pen's ability and confidence to turn to the second round
At the same time, Macron's biggest rival, Le Pen, has focused on portraying himself as a "purchasing power candidate", focusing on his own views on purchasing power. In the face of the economic shock and price increase caused by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, she is a strong advocate of alleviating the impact on the French people by lowering the energy consumption tax from the current 20% to 5.5%, and promised in her campaign platform that if she wins the election, she will ensure purchasing power through tax cuts and salary increases.
In the long run, these tactics are a continuation of Le Pen's strategy of "de-demonization." Through this strategy, she softened her far-right shell, especially by distanceing herself from the newly emerging far-right candidate Zemour. Le Pen led his party from the former Front national to the National Alliance to shed the negative historical connotations of its original party name and soften some of its specific policy positions on Issues such as Europe and refugees without changing its Eurosceptic and nationalist cores. Although these so-called "changes" are more of a "word game" using public relations techniques and do not change their far-right political leanings, these policies have attracted many former right-wing Republican voters to some extent.
On the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, although Le Pen, as a candidate, did not use her presidency like Macron, she used this opportunity as much as possible to stabilize her voters in the early stages of the conflict, thus smoothly surviving the initial crisis and laying the groundwork for her re-emergence before the vote.
Her series of statements at the beginning of the conflict opened up from her opponent, Zemur, who also belonged to the far right camp, and easily diverted voters' attention from some negative news from herself or her party. In interviews, she always finds ways to talk about the purchasing power issues she does best and most wants to talk about. She has always stressed that "it's just a war for Ukrainians." The French are willing to accept Ukrainian refugees because of the hospitality of the French. ”
After the preliminary results were announced, Hidalgo, Green Party candidate Yado and French Communist Party candidate Rossell expressed their support for Macron and boycotting the far right in the second round of voting. Perex, the right-wing candidate who declared on Thursday that he would not make a call to his supporters in the second round, also said he would support Macron. Mei Langxiong, a key candidate on the left, said that if he did not make it to the second round, he would consult his voters to determine his position in the second round.
It is undeniable that Le Pen, who enters the second round of voting, will have a much larger electoral reserve than before. On the one hand, voters in the far-right camp, Eric Zemmour, will be more likely to choose her; on the other hand, the Republican Party, which has become more and more right-leaning in recent years, will also turn to her in part if its candidate fails to make it to the second round.
The results of the first round of voting also meant that Macron's promise during his 2017 campaign to curb the rise of the far right during his term of office was frustrated. With the rightward shift in his governing style and policies after taking office, French society has also shown a clear right-leaning trend, and the ultra-right forces have not declined but have risen. In the 2019 European Parliament elections, Le Pen's National Union became the largest party in France in the European Parliament with 23.31% of the vote. Two weeks later, Le Pen, representing the three main forces in French politics, will be Macron's re-election rivals.
(Yutao Zhang, Graduate Student, School of Journalism, Sciences Po)
Editor-in-Charge: Zhu Zhengyong Photo Editor: Jiang Lidong
Proofreader: Ding Xiao