Pelosi wants to visit Taiwan? Many scholars: China will certainly respond forcefully, and the United States should not underestimate China's determination

Source: Global Times

"The US side should scrupulously abide by the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiques, immediately cancel Speaker Pelosi's plan to visit Taiwan, stop official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan, and fulfill the US commitment not to support 'Taiwan independence' with practical actions." On the 7th, the Chinese Foreign Ministry made a solemn response to the disclosure by the Japanese and Taiwan media that Pelosi, speaker of the US Federal House of Representatives, would lead a delegation to visit Taiwan. Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi also made clear China's solemn position, saying that "if the US side insists on going its own way, the Chinese side will certainly make a resolute response, and all the consequences will be borne by the US side." If Pelosi does visit Taiwan, it will be the first incumbent speaker of the US House of Representatives to do so in 25 years, which also means that the nature of his "visit" is extremely bad. In the past two years, on the one hand, Washington has promised to adhere to the one-China policy, and on the other hand, it has frequently played the "Taiwan card" and constantly challenged China's red line. This time, the cards it played were more "dangerous." In an interview with the Global Times, a number of scholars said that China will definitely make a strong response, and the United States should not underestimate China's determination. However, on the 7th, Pelosi's spokesperson said that due to Pelosi's positive test for the new crown virus, the trip to Asia has been postponed.

Pelosi Infographic

"Unconfirmed nor denied"

According to Taiwan's "Lianhe Pao" reported on the 7th, on April 10, the 43rd anniversary of the so-called "Taiwan Relations Act" enacted by the US side, the DPP authorities have recently made "intensive" preparations to welcome the "visiting delegation" of US congressmen. It has been learned that Pelosi, speaker of the US House of Representatives, will lead a delegation to visit Asia and is scheduled to arrive in Taiwan on the 10th. In order to avoid "protests and obstructions and changes" on the mainland, people from Taiwan's foreign-related and security departments "kept a low profile," saying that there is no relevant information to announce at present, and there is no confirmation or denial.

According to Taiwan's "Central News Agency", the "exclusive report" of Japan's Fuji News Network on the 7th said that Pelosi will depart from the United States on the 8th and visit Taiwan after talks with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on the 10th. According to the report, after the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the situation in the Taiwan Strait has become the focus of attention, and the US Government, in order to show its support for Taiwan, has made an urgent decision to adjust its itinerary, and the original plan to visit the ROK was cancelled due to its visit to Taiwan.

South Korea's "NEWS 1" website said that in response to Japanese media saying that Pelosi did not visit South Korea but went to Taiwan, the South Korean Foreign Ministry "answered the question." Officials said it was unclear whether the United States was actively considering letting Pelosi visit South Korea, nor was it clear about the rok-US consultations, in short, "no comment."

A Taiwan media inquired about Pelosi's office, and the response was that based on consistent safety guidelines, it would not confirm or deny relevant information before the visit. Taiwan's "Ministry of Foreign Affairs" did not confirm the relevant news on the 7th, and spokesman Ou Jiang'an only said that he would "explain it to the outside world at an appropriate time." Some analysts said that usually Taiwan and the United States will not announce the PLAN of the US congressman's visit to Taiwan in advance, mainly considering that there may be changes due to the Beijing protests, so they will keep a low profile.

However, DPP "legislator" Wang Dingyu could not wait to confirm it on the 7th: "In 25 years, the first time in 25 years, the current us speaker of the National Assembly will visit Taiwan over the weekend. You Xikun, the legislator of Taiwan, made a fool of himself, saying that it was inconvenient for him to speak, although he knew a little. He also touted Pelosi's experience as "very rich", "the US House of Representatives is the leader of the global congress, and the speaker of the US House of Representatives is the leader of the dragons."

However, later on the 7th, Pelosi's office said that Pelosi tested positive for the new crown virus and currently has no symptoms. Subsequently, a Pelosi spokesperson said Pelosi's trip to Asia had been postponed. Pelosi is known to have been fully vaccinated, including a booster needle.

"The US side is responsible for all the consequences"

Under U.S. law, when a current president leaves office and initiates a succession process, the Speaker of the House of Representatives is the successor to the vice president alone. In the past 25 years, the speaker of the US House of Representatives has never visited Taiwan. In 2019, former Speaker of the US House of Representatives Ryan went to Taiwan to participate in the 40th anniversary of the legislation of the "Taiwan Relations Act". In 1997, kim ritchie, then speaker of the House of Representatives, led a delegation to visit Taiwan and met with Lee Teng-hui, then leader of the Taiwan region.

Because of this, taiwan media have reported and hyped up the news that Pelosi will visit Taiwan on the 7th. Some foreign-related persons on the island said that the visit of the US congressman group to Taiwan "will show the US Congress's support for Taiwan and the importance it attaches to Taiwan-US relations and the 'Taiwan Relations Act.'" Some scholars also said that the United States' support for Taiwan "continues to escalate, constantly add ingredients, and have the feeling of cutting sausages piece by piece."

However, some netizens on the island do not buy it: "Please don't come, you have already left your great-grandchildren in debt, is it good for the United States to break copper and iron for others?" "How much tax do the DPP authorities have to pay tribute?" "I came to Taiwan to make a head, but I didn't have money to go to South Korea."

"Choking back with four 'serious' "All consequences are the responsibility of the US side" "Beijing: The US Congress should pursue the one-China policy"... The mainland's statement on the 7th also attracted the attention of the Taiwan media. Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said that if Speaker Pelosi visits Taiwan, it will seriously violate the one-China principle and the stipulations of the three Sino-US joint communiques, seriously damage China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, seriously impact the political foundation of Sino-US relations, and send a serious wrong signal to the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces. The Chinese side firmly opposes this and has lodged solemn representations with the US side. If the US side insists on going its own way, the Chinese side will certainly take resolute and effective measures, and all the consequences caused by this must be fully borne by the US side.

Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, said on the same day that we will never tolerate the separatist acts of "Taiwan independence" and the erroneous words and deeds of the US side that harm our core interests, and we are telling the DPP authorities to immediately stop any attempt to collude with external forces to seek "independence," and all crimes will be liquidated.

State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi pointed out in a telephone conversation with French President Foreign Affairs Adviser Boehner on the 7th that the current international situation has intensified. The United States emphasizes respect for a country's sovereignty and territorial integrity on the Ukraine issue, but blatantly tramples on the "one-China" red line on the Taiwan issue, which is a naked double standard. As a political dignitary of a country, if the speaker of the US House of Representatives knowingly commits a sneaky visit to Taiwan, it will be a malicious provocation to China's sovereignty, a gross interference in China's internal affairs, and an extremely dangerous political signal to the outside world. If the US side insists on going its own way, the Chinese side will certainly make a resolute response, and all the consequences will be borne by the US side.

It is worth mentioning that on the 7th, the Chinese Ministry of National Defense expressed "resolute opposition" to US arms sales to Taiwan, put forward solemn representations, and urged the US side to immediately cancel its arms sales plan to Taiwan and stop US-Taiwan military ties, so as not to cause further damage to the relations between the two countries and the two armed forces.

Is the United States confident that it can deal with both Eurasian crises?

Yonhap News Agency said on the 7th that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan can be expected to make a strong reaction from the Chinese side. Some analysts believe that Washington wants to show its attention to the "Taiwan Relations Act," which provides the so-called legal basis for arms sales to Taiwan, with actions.

Bloomberg commented that if Pelosi visits Taiwan, it will be a "landmark" move of support for Taiwan and the highest-profile visit in President Biden's presidency. Last month, China's foreign minister reiterated Beijing's position and warned against some US forces conniving to encourage the development, challenge, and hollowing out of the one-China principle.

Less than a month ago, when the Leaders of China and the United States met, the US leader reiterated that the United States does not support "Taiwan independence" and adheres to the one-China policy. Li Haidong, a professor at the China Foreign Affairs University, believes that despite the biden administration's commitments, the deceptive and two-faced old problems of the US China policy have been exposed. "The promulgation of the 'Taiwan Travel Act,' the entry of the 'six guarantees' for Taiwan into the law, and the incessant visits to Taiwan by US congressmen and officials can show that the US policy toward Taiwan has undergone great changes, and the connotation of the one-China policy promised by the US side is different from the past." He told the Global Times reporter.

Diao Daming, an associate professor at Chinese Min University, told the Global Times that as a colleague of the Democratic Party, Biden's acquiescence to Pelosi's visit to Taiwan is a violation of the US commitment to the one-China policy. "The United States thinks itself to be very clever, thinking that Pelosi's trip to Taiwan will increase the leverage for dialogue with Beijing, but in fact they can do nothing, only make things worse."

Li Haidong analyzed that the US political elite is very arrogant to believe that the United States can deal with two major crises deliberately created by the United States in Europe and the Asia-Pacific at the same time, in fact, there is a huge gap between their understanding of their own strength and the policy goals they have set, as exemplified by the failures of the United States in Iraq and Afghanistan. Another anonymous scholar said that Pelosi's visit to Taiwan reflects the different coping strategies of the United States in the two major strategic directions in Europe and Asia: in Europe, the United States is concentrating on dealing with Russia and demonstrating its hard power; in Asia, the United States is responding to China with "diplomatic behavior" and showing soft power.

"There is no joke among major powers," said Song Zhongping, a military expert, saying that if the US side insists on going its own way, the Chinese side will certainly take effective countermeasures, first of all, the PLA's exercises and training activities.

[Global Times reporter Guo Yuandan, Yang Sheng, Yue Linwei, Li Hao, special correspondent of Global Times in Japan and South Korea, Cheng Dong, Xin Bin, special correspondent of Global Times]