Column introduction
【Fund Qunyinghui】 is a column based on the investment research framework of the old lady of the financial management, which comprehensively displays the investment ability of fund managers. In this column, we will start from the five dimensions of attack, defense, prestige, internal strength and physical method, combine quantitative indicators, and strip away the cocoon in the massive "fund performance data", and strive to help everyone accurately understand the investment "core" of fund managers.
Basics
In Mr. Jin Yong's "Yitian Slaughtering Dragon", there is a classic passage that describes the whole process of Zhang Wuji's learning the "Taiji Sword Method":
"When all is forgotten, it is also the time to learn, and to defeat the enemy with all your strength." From remembering to being instinctive, you can finally be free from the original moves, and you can make your own moves at will. ”
Jin Zicai, a fund manager who was once a researcher in the TMT industry, showed us the "Taiji Sword Method" of a fund manager through the flowing position style of the past two years.
In the list of the most profitable active funds from January to March this year, all 4 funds that Jin Zicai participated in the management of were listed, and a "hegemonic list" drama was staged.
As a veteran who has begun to manage the fund as early as 2014, Jin Zicai's representative caitong value momentum mix has won 69.98% of the return in the violent conversion of bulls and bears in 2015, surviving a round of crisis of "stock market", and since then, the fund has achieved positive returns in the "fund bull market" in the three years from 2019 to 2021.
What is surprising is that today, when the high-performing fund manager will be bought by the basic people as soon as it appears, Jin Zicai still has not entered the hall of tens of billions of fund managers, which can be said to be an undiscovered "rough" fund manager.
Nowadays, with many of his products on the list, the probability of the fund manager rising to the top is getting higher and higher, and becoming a ten-billion fund manager is only one foot away.
Judging from his past resume, Jin Zicai was first a TMT researcher and has been deeply involved in the field of science and technology for a long time, but he is not limited to his old bank, but is proficient in industry rotation, and has a very accurate grasp of A-share macro factors.
Take the recent position as an example, according to the fund's four quarterly reports, 6 of the top ten heavy stocks in Jin Zicai's financial flux value mix belong to the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry, 1 belongs to electronics, 2 belong to tourism, and 1 belongs to consumption. Due to the accurate step on the outlet of the year-to-date, Jin Zi has become one of the few positive return fund managers this year.
Back in mid-2021, Jin Zicai's top ten heavy stocks in the financial momentum value mix covered almost all of the "pro-cyclical" industries, and after experiencing the maximum drawdown within the term, they still won more than 28% of the annual return.
Yes, although Jin Zicai is proficient in technology investment, he did not fall behind, but used the industry rotation to accurately lay out the high-quality industries on the outlet, coming and going like flowing water.
According to public information, Jin Zicai has more than 10 years of experience and nearly 8 years of investment management experience, and the following is the basic information of Jin Zicai:
(Source: wind, 2022.03.31)
Five-dimensional analysis plot
Introduction to the five-dimensional system indicators:
Attack - Comprehensive evaluation of benefits
Defense - comprehensive evaluation of risk control
Internal force - profit quality evaluation
Approach - Investment flexibility and forward-looking
Prestige – awards, industry reviews, market reputation
According to the analysis of the five-dimensional system, Jin Zicai belongs to the offensive fund manager, the offensive ability in the five-dimensional system is at the top level of five stars, the body method and internal strength belong to the frontier level of more than four stars, while maintaining a high level of performance, the profit quality of Jin Zicai is very solid, the defensive attributes are general, and the net value of the recent products has fluctuated greatly.
Five-dimensional analysis diagram in detail
Prestige: ⭐⭐⭐
⭐
1
On a tube scale
Management scale: Jin Zicai has served as a number of 9 funds, but the scale is not large, and 7 products are currently under management, with a scale of nearly 7 billion. The scale of management grew to a larger scale of about 8 billion in 2019 and the first half of 2020, and then the scale declined, but has remained at about 7 billion.
(Source: wind, 2021.12.31)
2
Represents the fund holder structure
Representative fund holder structure: Since taking office in 2017, the proportion of individual investors and institutional investors has been relatively stable, and the number of holder households has increased from about 40,000 in 2014 to about 160,000 in 2021, with a good "fan" base.
Attack: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Medium and long-term performance display
The number of funds currently managed by Jin Zicai is 7. Is a typical growth fund manager, has a deep research on TMT, from the second half of 2018 to the layout of 5G, until the third quarter of 2020, during which the income is quite good. From the perspective of long-term performance, the annualized income of Caitong Value Momentum Hybrid has exceeded 20%, the top 2% (12/699) of the same kind, the annualized income of Caitong Fuxin Dingkai Hybrid Initiation is more than 30%, and the top 1% (21/2508) of the same kind has excellent long-term performance.
(Source: wind, 2022.03.31)
Short-term performance demonstration
Among the 7 funds in management, in addition to the Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry A fund position is concentrated in the chip semiconductor industry, the remaining 6 positions are basically the same and the holding industry has undergone earth-shaking changes in the fourth quarter of 2021, the positions in the third quarter are mainly concentrated in the electronics and chemical sectors, and the top ten heavy positions in the fourth quarter of 2021 are concentrated in consumption (pork, snack food, no wine), aviation, and hotels, which also explains that most of the funds have lost their earnings this year, and Jinzi has a number of funds ranked high. The fund manager is good at industry rotation, if there are investors who like the investment style of the fund manager do not have to struggle with which one to choose, each one is your dish.
(Source: wind, 2021.04.01-2022.03.31)
Defense: ⭐⭐
Drawdown control angle
From the perspective of drawdown control, the maximum drawdown in the last year and the past two years is close to the decline of the CSI 300 and the ChiNext index in the same period, and the maximum drawdown since taking office is greater than the average of the same kind, of which the maximum drawdown of caitong value momentum mix is more than -50%, and the ability to control risks is average.
(Source: wind, as of 2022.03.31)
Annualized volatility angle
From the perspective of annualized volatility, Jin Zicai is in charge of the annualized volatility of products much higher than the average of the same kind, the net value of the product often appears rapid rise and sharp decline, for steady investors the holding experience is not very good, but the betting long-term investors hold the income is very good.
Internal force: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sharpe ratio, information ratio
Sharpe and Alpha. Taking the four products that Jin Zicai has been in charge for a long time as an example, Sharpe is higher than the average of the same kind, which means that these four products can obtain a yield that exceeds the average of the same kind when taking the same risk. Alpha's earning power is also much higher than the average of its kind, which means that the excess return of these four products relative to the large market is much higher than the average of the same kind.
(Source: wind, since taking office until 2022.03.31)
Shareholding concentration, industry concentration
Shareholding concentration, industry concentration. Jin Zicai in the management of the fund holding concentration and industry concentration is generally higher, good at industry rotation he found that a certain industry has investment opportunities when the allocation ratio is higher, while the concentration of individual stocks is also higher than the average of the same kind, to the fourth quarter of 2021 positions as an example, the position is mainly concentrated in agricultural stocks, which is also based on his judgment of the agricultural sector - "agriculture is currently hovering at the bottom, and it may not be far from the bottom."
(Source: wind, as of December 31, 2021)
3
EP、PB
Position P/E ratio Due to the fact that the six funds in addition to Caitong Integrated Circuit Industry Stock A are relatively similar, we chose Caitong Value Momentum Mix as a display, the fund's position on December 31, 2021 shows that 6 of the top ten heavy stocks have a negative P/E ratio, indicating that the net profit of these companies is negative, in fact, it is in a state of loss, the current decline in pig prices is conducive to the acceleration of the bottom of the pig cycle, which also explains why pig prices have fallen, pig companies' stock prices have risen, It shows that the fund manager is more optimistic about the early arrival of the inflection point of the pig cycle. In addition, the position holding period is shorter, the average time of holding positions in 2021 is 0.19 years, the turnover rate is higher, and it ranks in the top 27% of the same kind.
Body Method: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Annual win rate
In order to better assess its investment research ability, the fund manager's index is used to characterize the flexibility of its portfolio. Through the data, the probability of positive returns in the 7 natural years since Jin Zicai took office and this year is 75%, and the ability to continue to return is quite OK.
(Source: wind, 2015-2021.03.31)
Circle of competence
As a mesozoic fund manager with more than 7 years of service, Jin Zicai has continuously expanded his circle of ability and gradually grown from a TMT hunter to a comprehensive value style growth stock investor. Bringing cyclical thinking into growth investment, Jin Zi saw more abundant investment opportunities. Similarly, it is precisely because of such a complex research and investment perspective that Jin Zi is more comfortable in all-weather, market-wide investment. In 2017, heavy warehouse food and beverage and home appliances, 2018 heavy warehouse communication, computer, 2019 to seize electronics and communications, 2020 very early to capture the opportunity of the cycle, in the chemical, nonferrous, mining earned, at the end of 2021 in advance layout of the agricultural sector, dodged the 2022 market decline and achieved good returns.
Opinion sharing
Recent Views:
Jin Zicai believes that the differentiation in 2022 may converge, the structure tends to be balanced, the market probability is still dominated by structural opportunities, and the investment opportunities for prosperity industry and valuation repair coexist. Industry-level recommendations focus on: agriculture, aviation and hospitality, food and beverage.
Agriculture: Agriculture is currently hovering at the bottom, and may not be far from the bottom, and we think its structural upward opportunities may begin to gradually appear in the second quarter of this year. We believe that the supply of the aquaculture sector may have reached a mid-term, and may reach a critical point after half a year, and the inflection point of the stock price may be ahead of the inflection point of supply and demand.
Aviation, hotels: Since the first confirmed case of Infection in Olmiqueron appeared in the fourth quarter of last year, the gradual spread of the mutant strain has brought uncertainty to the prospects for global economic recovery. However, in the long run, we believe that there may be positive factors in the next six months.
Food and beverage: The cost pressure brought about by the price increase of upstream resources and products takes time to be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches, and consumer industries such as food and beverage can enjoy cost dividends in the first half of the CPI rise, and profits will improve. After the normalization of the epidemic, the marginal impact of the epidemic on food and beverage production and sales has weakened, and under the arrangement of stable growth measures, consumer confidence is expected to gradually strengthen, and the price increase space accumulated by food and beverage related industries will be gradually released. Sub-sections with larger price increase space may have better performance. ”
Risk Warning: Fund investment is risky, investment should be cautious. Any opinions, analyses and forecasts in this article are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice of any kind to the reader.