The Lakers are officially out, and there are no chances of play-offs. This result has become less and less surprising in the last 2 months. Although the Wei Shao deal is an out-and-out self-deprecating martial art, before the start of the season, I am afraid that most people will not think that the Lakers can rot to this extent. Looking back at a failed season, it does not mean making excuses, because the season is not in the past, fans can delete basketball-related APP, small characters can shoot two scattered, each running out, management also has to look forward, the stars of the house, but also have to find a way for their careers.
Why did the Lakers do this?
The giant team is a team building model of top salary + basic salary, and this model can be played with two prerequisites:
First, the giants must play a giant-level contribution. There's nothing to say about it, the money is spent on the giants, the giants don't use it, and the giant teams don't have to play. The Lakers' big three have their own problems, James is too old, it is not surprising to play 56 games at this age, and the offensive and defensive ends can not run at full power. Thick eyebrows are so brittle that they have played 16 games less than James, with only half of their attendance. Wei Shao is an iron man, the level is not the same as before, and the team is not compatible, and the contribution of the unit time game is not as good as the strong team starter. At this point, the Nets are a bit similar to the situation of the Lakers, Durant's attendance is not as good as James, and Irving has only played 26 games so far;
Second, cheap bonus contracts are needed. Although the Nets are also difficult, the situation is still much better than the Lakers, because there are many characters that can be played outside the Nets giants, and the situation of young and veterans is stronger than that of the Lakers. The people the Lakers found last summer were all "old, weak, sick and disabled":
Nunn season reimbursement, not a game;
Ariza played 24 games, not at a good level;
Bazemore leaked in the Lakers' environment without easyball, and was too compatible with several other stars, and was finally abandoned;
Bradley was slightly better than Bazemore;
Ellington and Augustine are all offensive players who can be used at the end of the bench, and they are not enough defensive losses;
Rondo, the main offensive efficiency can not be seen at all, the past three points are weak, now even weaker is two points, he is not alone with the park;
Howard was very awkward. Offense is a mixture of surprise and mistake, and if the defense is finished after the lift, it is finished in front of the face if it is not lifted.
These low-priced contracts introduced by the Lakers during the off-season are really handy munch and Guago, one of which is a young man with still potential to further cash in his talent in the Lakers, and the other is the success of the famous veteran transformation shooter, and the Lakers have handed over a projection performance worthy of reputation. But the two are also the level of attack and defense to play a draw, Munch defense needless to say, Guago some games really fight, but the age and ability are there, the Lakers this leaking outside defense, Guago played the inside line, really helpless.
Tucker, who was cultivated by himself, does not need to be evaluated, and belongs to the most failed investment of the Lakers, still staying in the "potential" stage.
In addition to the center, the Lakers supporting role is almost two kinds of players:
There is projection, no defense at all;
A bit defensive, the offense is not good at all.
The NBA is such a league, and for the most part, the offense depends on star Carrie. The Lakers will have attendance here, put everything that can be projected, and there is a ceiling for offense.
Defensiveness does not necessarily depend on stars, integrity is important, but integrity also depends on resources. Vogel is good at defense, and it is quite easy to use it, such as Stanley's sappers, and the Lakers have too few people. Bradley can be considered to be able to defend, but he is a special type leader who mainly bites the No. 1 position, and has limited influence on the overall defense. The Lakers need a few strikers with good body shape, excellent athleticism, and a positive attitude to play, but this kind of person is a hard currency in the market, but anyone who can score two three points is particularly expensive to fly.
The Lakers' current situation is not someone's pot. The attendance rate of core players, the limited ability of low-cost supporting roles, and no dividends, allow the Lakers to have neither the upper limit of the personnel when the personnel are neat, nor the thickness of the lineup when the personnel are absent. Of course, you can also say that the Lakers' current situation stems from the deal of Getting Wei Shao, if this deal is not done, the Lakers' supporting cast team is not to say how prominent, and it is certainly not weak, and it will not be so unbearable to resist injuries.
Well, this season is over, and no amount of accountability can change the outcome. The question now is, what's next?
After summarizing the 21-22 season, we can first think about these two questions:
First, assuming the Lakers are healthy, what level of team are they?
Still not strong enough. Zhan Mei can win the championship with a team without an obvious third person in 20 years, that is because Pop, Green, Caruso, Rondo, Howard, McGee, Kuzma are at least qualified or above rotation players, and the Lakers now lack players of this level. This season, when Zhan Mei was on the court at the same time, the Lakers lost 2.5 points in 100 rounds. This sample (1195 rounds) is not big or small, and if your best two players can't win when they use it together, it's hard to blame the problem entirely on the time they don't play.
Second, will the Lakers be healthier in the future?
James will be 38 years old next year, and with him another year old, the Lakers will increase the pressure of thick eyebrows, and thick eyebrows have played a total of 76 games in the past two years.
It can be seen that if high-level supporting roles cannot be placed around Zhan Mei (to ensure the team ceiling), and a solid bench seat can be established to prevent injuries (to ensure the lower limit of the team), then the Lakers still have no hope next season. The Lakers only have one vacation period to complete these operations, or at most postpone it until next year's trading deadline.
How hard is that?
Before we talk about the Westbrook deal, we have to think about the question of whether there will be a large number of veterans who will cut salaries to fill the Lakers lineup?
Think about it, last summer, the Lakers looked more competitive than they are now, what level of players came? Compared with the veterans who ran to the Nets, the Lakers are obviously almost meaningless, which shows that players generally believe that the Lakers are not the most competitive team. In such a broken situation for the Lakers, it is even more unrealistic to supplement high-quality veterans with a basic salary. What about money? The Lakers only have a mini middle class and veteran base salary exceptions.
In addition, in the summer of 22 years, the Lakers did not have a first-round pick, nor a second-round pick, and if they wanted to supplement the potential young people, they needed to spend money to buy the second round, or from the losing draft Taobao. The Lakers need Caruso-esque surprises, and it took a little time for Caruso to actually get to the current level.
There are three more possibilities for digging within the team:
First, Nunn has not played a game after all, he has player options, most of them will not jump out, next season may have some help;
Second, Reeves counts the few achievements of this season and can continue to retain them;
The third is... If Tucker isn't sent away, keep waiting for him for another year and see what happens.
It is not difficult to see that the way of cheap promotion - the old future investment, the young forces - are not optimistic. Maybe the Lakers need the Heat-level vision to make Duncan Robinson, Vincent, and Strus-style winning, and this probably won't solve all the problems, because the Heat are only missing the back of the lineup, and the Lakers are not at the championship level from the third and fourth people on the team.
Therefore, if the Lakers want to achieve qualitative change and return to the championship file, they can only count on transactions. Tucker is no longer a positive asset in the market, and his growth expectations and contract amounts are completely different from more than a year ago. His contract still has a matching value, and +1 to 2 first-round signings with Nunn (some trades have to be Garrives) can leverage a 20 million-level deal. Stars at this price point include Grant, Barnes, Hield, Hardaway Jr., Gallinari, Bojan, Sabonis Jr., Rockets Gordon, Fournier, Turner, Bogdan, Brogdon (almost a little salary, need to think of a way) and so on.
I'm not saying that the stars mentioned above can get the stars mentioned above, or all of them are suitable for the Lakers, in fact, even if they get one of the above players, they can't make the Lakers completely return to the top, because they are not a star of this level.
What if we could get The Westbrook contract?
The Lakers proofing in front, no one in the market will believe that the change is for the whole, in the case of the Lakers do not give benefits, the pursuit of Wei Shao can get good results. It's also unrealistic to go to the Thunder and send Wei Shao home, because the Lakers pay a huge draft price, and they can't clear the space to do something in the free market, they just do "no you are important to me".
The Lakers want to move Wei Shao, the easiest way is to wait for next year's trading deadline, Wei Shao becomes a contract that is about to expire, relatively easy to deal with, see if there are stars in the market who are going to leave and the contract is about to expire, and specify to go to the Lakers. Since the dynamic stars have basically moved in the past few years, such opportunities have become less and less, and the two people who have the opportunity to move in the market are Bill and Lillard:
Bill didn't move when he should have moved the most, so his chances of staying at the top of his salary were great. If Bill wants to go and is designated to go to the Lakers, the Lakers can use the Westbrook contract and the first round of signing to make another deal with the Wizards, and it can only happen this summer, first signed and then changed. It sounds like the plot of the novel, and, without a pay cut, Bill signs first and then changes it almost just above the hard salary cap;
Lillard was so fierce last year that he didn't move in the end. If he were to move next season, the lakers would indeed be more feasible than last year, because with a year and a half of his contract left before next year's deal deadline, it would be easier to bring management to the knees than last summer's three-year contract. The chips that the Lakers can come up with are 27 and 29 first rounds, 26 and 28 first round swaps, plus a due contract.
Whether the Blazers agree or not is secondary, the key is that the Lakers want to ensure that their situation is much better than the Blazers, because Lillard can't accept just being closer to the championship, leaving the Blazers to sacrifice the reputation of "one person, one city", which is not a small price and needs to be very close. That would require the Lakers to make a break in the free market during this year's offseason, staying in a competitive position in January 23, which is exactly where it's hardest until there's a big deal.
Of course, the Lakers can also use the way of adding draft picks, using Wei Shao to "exchange the whole money for zero", get the third star of the average level (such as 20 million files), and fill the depth of the lineup. The possibility of this road is even higher than the upward pursuit of stars, there are many plans, see how much the future is overdrawn.
The most difficult thing is not how to reinforce, as long as you are willing to overdraft the future, the transaction can always be reached. The key is whether it is still worth it.
Objectively speaking, the Hope of the Lakers in the Zhan Mei era to continue to impact the championship will become lower and lower as James grows older and the competitive environment in the West becomes increasingly fierce. The Lakers can't rebuild immediately, because the Pelicans have the Lakers' right to swap in the first round in 23 years, and the right to choose the first round in 24 and 25 years, which means that the Lakers will have to send the first round out at least in the summer of 24 or 25 years before they can be destroyed. And if the Lakers continue to overdraft the future and bet on James's last 1 to 2 years of peak, they will also delay this time point. If the Lakers send out the 27, 29 first round and 26, 28 first round exchanges, the Lakers want to accumulate top talent from the draft conference time will have to resign to 2030, and only need James or a thick eyebrow injury, or James "old" The moment really comes, they bet that the current plan will go bankrupt, the future...
The Lakers dare to overdraft the future from the Los Angeles market and the Lakers signboard, but they also need their own situation is not too bad. There is no doubt that the operation of obtaining Westbrook has reduced the score of the Lakers management, the "girlfriend" incident is full of doubts, no matter what the truth is, the Lakers' reputation has fallen too much than when they won the championship in 20 years. Firing Vogel and letting him carry the pot is a way to go, but it doesn't change, and the team's ability to function is questioned.
The decline in thick eyebrow levels and the worrying health have also reduced the Lakers' future attractiveness in the market. And, because the Lakers have overdrawn the future in advance, the flexibility of operation is greatly reduced, and the stars who want to join will also consider the potential of the management to continue to build a lineup around him after coming to the Lakers - compared to the teams with rookie bonus contracts and a lot of draft picks, the Lakers are not preferred.
With a superstar in hand, relying on space and the ball market, and taking another superstar from the market, the continuity of this program needs at least one successful season to reshape. At this point in time, completely overdraft the draft pick, and after James retires, the Lakers want to rely on thick eyebrows + free market to re-emerge before 2030, which is too difficult.
So, is it feasible to trade James or Thick Eyebrows to start the next era?
James can stay in Los Angeles, continue to build the market after retiring, or return to Cleveland to pursue his dreams, and his future is relatively flexible. If James wants to go back to the Cavaliers, the Lakers can get some benefits. Management has operated conservatively and survived the next two years, a safe but uncompetitive approach in the short term.
The Lakers can't trade thick eyebrows, because it is now the low value of thick eyebrows, and sending away thick eyebrows cannot be broken, which is of little significance. Of course, there is also a possibility, although it is now the trough of thick eyebrow value, it may also be the peak of future value. But believing that a 29-year-old star can still pick up is probably a more reasonable expectation.
For the Lakers, there is no perfect plan. They need a second Laker in the market, let them exchange Wei Shao for more effective resources at the lowest cost, sacrifice the future as little as possible, fill in a handful of firewood for the end of the Zhan Mei Lakers, survive two years without draft initiative, and then open a new era. It's uncomfortable, but the basketball court is a place to create miracles, and for the Lakers, there are no miracles this season, maybe... There will be more in the future...