Special military operations, the Russian army is becoming more and more difficult, can the small goal of liberating The Donbass be achieved?
Russia's special military operation against Ukraine, exactly 40 days, until April 4. In the past 40 days of battlefield trends, the Russian army has become more and more difficult and partially withdrawn, and the morale of the Ukrainian side has become more and more vigorous and turned to the offensive.
On March 25, the Russian Defense Ministry concluded in January that it claimed that the special military operation had achieved the first phase of the goal and transferred to the second phase of the goal of "liberating Donbass".
Huguang fisherman believes that the Russian side has three large, medium, and small targets for this operation.
The big goal of the original plan was to occupy Kiev in 3 days, overthrow the current regime, support the puppet government, sign a pro-Russian agreement, withdraw the troops, and return to the DPRK. NATO countries also have to recognize the realization.
The goal is to occupy the entire coastal area of Eastern Wu and Uzbekistan, replicate the N independent republics, make Ukraine completely far away from the sea and become a landlocked country, and form the fact of the partition of Eastern and Western Uzbekistan.
The small goal is to "liberate Donbass", completely solve the problems of Donetsk and Luhansk, and help them to achieve true independence. Subsequently, the two countries agreed to join the Russian Federation.
The small goal of "liberating Donbass" has now become the main goal of the Russian army, so can this goal be achieved?
The blitzkrieg on Kiev was undoubtedly the first plan of the Russian army
Russia is now our friendly neighbor (of course, there are grievances in history, the Soviet Union engaged in nuclear blackmail against me in 1969), and now there are many netizens who support Russia, which can be understood. However, we cannot simply stand up for Russia or Support Ukraine, and we must benchmark ourselves against the mainland's diplomatic position.
Some netizens who support Russia, some people accept that the Russian army blitzkrieg has been frustrated, believing that Russia originally did not have a blitzkrieg, but only a feint. This kind of thinking is ridiculous and does not correspond to the truth. If it is a feint attack, or to prevent the western Ukrainian army from advancing east to support Uzbekistan, Russia does not have to send heavy troops to Kiev, but only air containment and interception on the way. And after the first round of large-scale missile attacks, Russia has achieved a relative air superiority.
Even if you say that the attack on Kiev was a feint, what decisive victory did the Russian army achieve in Wudong after 40 days? Nothing.
Since it is a feint, you have to quickly occupy the whole territory of Udong Donbas and withdraw your troops from Kiev? Why did the troops withdraw from Kiev earlier?
The ancient Chinese said that a thief catches the king first. Beheading is the most effective and least costly strategy.
When the war first broke out on February 24, why did the United States, Britain and other countries evacuate their embassy staff? Why did Biden recommend that Ukrainian President Zelinsky immediately withdraw from the capital Kiev? U.S. intelligence is very accurate.
The British also advised Zelenskiy to go into exile.
Ukraine's own intelligence agencies also thought that they could not hold out for 3 days.
Many of our military commentators also spoke out at the time, and Russia could certainly take Kiev in three days.
Looking at the Russian information, the Russian army only brought 3 days of military food in the conquest of Kiev, and the original plan was to capture Kiev within 3 days.
In his 10,000-word mobilization speech before the war, Puti directly said that Ukraine has never been a sovereign state. This set the tone for the capture of Kiev.
On the third or fourth day of the war, the Russians sent a press release, but it was quickly deleted, which presumably meant to celebrate victory. It is estimated that this manuscript was pre-written on the first day of the war. They had imagined it to be a blitzkrieg.
Blitzkrieg is the least costly and hassle-free, bypassing NATO military support to Ukraine. Because the current government has been overthrown and the chain of command has failed, NATO's military assistance has lost its object and meaning. To whom are the troops reinforced? There's no way to help. Although it is possible to support the government-in-exile, it is only a sporadic revolt, and it has nothing to do with the overall situation.
Why was the Russian Blitzkrieg frustrated?
Blitzkrieg pays attention to fast, fierce and accurate. It is necessary to quickly send troops to occupy the capital, control the government, especially the head of the group, control the media, and cut off the information system and the chain of command.
However, the Russian army encountered difficulties and setbacks in the "airborne airfield" in the first link.
On February 24, the first time of the war, Russian troops parachuted 200 people to take control of Antonov Airport, which is an international cargo airport 10 kilometers from Kiev.
However, it is possible that the Ukrainian army has long been prepared, coupled with NATO intelligence, the Ukrainian army counterattacked, and once recaptured the airfield.
The Russian army is an air assault group composed of dozens of attack helicopters and transport helicopters, taken off from Belarus, planning to directly insert into Thetonov airport, occupy the airport to consolidate the position, and then dozens of subsequent Il-76 transport aircraft landed at the airport with heavy equipment, as a base for a rapid attack on Kiev.
Although the first wave of airborne landings was successful, it was strongly resisted by the Ukrainian army, and the airport runway was also damaged and blocked with obstacles, and the subsequent Il-76 fleet could not carry out the landing. The airport has lost its usefulness.
The most critical first move, "control the airport", was unexpectedly unsuccessful, the follow-up forces could not catch up, and it was not surprising that the Russian blitzkrieg was frustrated.
Another important reason for the setback of the Russian blitzkrieg is the unexpected tough performance of Ukrainian President Zelinsky and the performance of the kiev people.
At the beginning of the war, Ukrainian intelligence agencies had suggested that Zelinsky leave Ukraine within 3 days, but he was determined not to leave.
If Zelinsky had fled like Afghan President Ghani, Kiev would probably have collapsed in the first place.
Zelinsky not only did not flee, but also kept posting videos to call on the people to resist.
Before the war, Zelenskiy's support at home was low, with the figure for December 2021 being around 30 percent. The Russian side originally thought that after the Arrival of the Russian Army, the people of Kiev would take the opportunity to oppose Zelensky and welcome the Russian Army, but unexpectedly, after the Russian army attacked, Zelenskiy's support rate did not decrease but rose. Polls say Zelenskiy's approval rating has soared to more than 90 percent, a threefold increase.
This data also shows that Zelenskiy's tough performance has condensed the hearts and minds of the people of Ukraine.
Zelenskiy's tough performance and many speeches also won a lot of military aid for Ukraine.
Only when you can hold on to it a few times will there be assistance, and only then will aid work. Otherwise there is no way to help. The mud can't be pasted on the wall.
This is why in the early days of the war, the United States and other countries were also waiting to see whether to increase military assistance.
( ) The tug-of-war is not good for the Russian side
One is home and the other is away. From a geographical point of view, blitzkrieg has become a tug-of-war, which is not a good thing for the Russian side.
After entering the stage of protracted war, the importance of NATO's military assistance to Ukraine led by the United States was reflected.
The Russian blitzkrieg was unsuccessful, and the protracted war was even more difficult to fight. Because the opponent is not only the Ukrainian side, but the entire NATO.
Although NATO did not directly send troops, it actually participated in the war indirectly. Information support, intelligence sharing, operational planning and command coordination support, and a large number of sophisticated weapons assistance have made the Russian army uncomfortable. And the volunteers, the mercenaries, had already gone to war.
Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by NATO, as well as Stinger, Starlight, Spring Knife, Drone ... They all began to arrive one after another. And as the battlefield situation changes, NATO-aided weapons are escalating. The United States has recently stated that it will provide Ukrainian with offensive weapons such as tanks.
With the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev and the Ume region, NATO-aided weapons and materiel will enter Ukraine unimpeded.
There are more and more weapons on the Ukrainian side, and the tug-of-war is not good for the Russian side! Coupled with strong Western sanctions and the UN General Assembly's resolution calling for Russia's unconditional withdrawal of troops, Russia is uncomfortable.
The situation on the battlefield has changed, with the Russian side showing a downward trend and the Ukrainian side showing an offensive
A month after the special military operation, the situation on the battlefield changed, the Russian side withdrew its troops, showing a downward trend, and the Ukrainian side began to counterattack.
The russian blitzkrieg's big goal of controlling the overall situation in Ukraine (the upper strategy) has not been achieved, and it can also take the central goal (the middle strategy) to control the eastern part of Ukraine and the coastal areas. But there is no clear result in this goal.
You see, the Russian side surrounded the port city of Mariupol with heavy troops, and Chechen troops were also sent, but they did not completely occupy it for more than a month. The fierce fighting in Mariupol continues. Even if it is occupied one day, it will not explain anything, and the Ukrainian side can still counterattack.
The Russians had already occupied Kherson, and the Ukrainian army began a counter-offensive to recover the lost ground.
In Kharkiv, Ukraine's second largest city near Russia, Ukrainian troops have torn a hole in the encirclement.
On 3 April, the Ukrainian side shot down a Russian-Soviet 35 in the Kharkiv area. Su 35, this is a heavy weapon of the Russian army!
On March 31, another landmark event occurred, that is, two Ukrainian aircraft bombed the oil depot in Belgorod in Russia. This is the first time since World War II that Russia itself has been attacked by foreign troops across the border!
Not very hurtful, very insulting! The air supremacy propagated by the Russian army is self-defeating. Two helicopters, probably from the Kharkiv region.
This cross-border raid can be said to be a sign of Ukraine's tenacious counter-offensive.
Of course, Ukraine's propaganda for this cross-border raid is low-key, and it does not admit it or deny it. The purpose of the sneak attack may focus on warning, forcing Russia to make concessions and extinguish the war as soon as possible. Ukraine also did not want to annoy Putti too much.
What is not available on the battlefield is also undesirable at the negotiating table. From the intermittent negotiations between the two sides for more than a month, it can also be seen that the situation on the battlefield has changed in favor of the Ukrainian side. Zelenskiy recently stressed that there will be no compromise on territorial issues. And said Ukraine must win.
Can the small goal of "liberating Donbass" be achieved?
The big goal is not enough, the medium goal is not ok, then the small goal of "liberating Donbass", can Russia achieve it?
The Donbass region, located on the western side of the lower Don River in eastern Ukraine, covers an area of about 60,000 square kilometers. It mainly includes the Donetsk Oblast and luhansk oblast of Ukraine. It is an important coal base and industrial powerhouse.
Three days before the start of the war, on February 21, Putin delivered a national video address announcing recognition of the independent states of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the civilian armed forces in Eastern Ukraine called themselves. On the same day, Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the two republics and signed the treaties of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic.
This declaration of recognition and the presidential decree left Puti with no way back, and the "liberation of Donbass" must win, otherwise it would be the failure of special military operations.
Huguang fisherman believes that after all, Russia is a military power, and is now undergoing a new war mobilization, a new round of conscription, a new round of troop transfer, and Russia will take Donbass with blood.
The problem is that you "liberated" the Donbass and made the Donbastonnetsk and Luhansk regions independent as countries, but Ukraine firmly refused to recognize it, and the military confrontation will not stop for a day. Ukraine could also avoid the Donbass and send troops to attack Crimea, or directly attack targets in Russia. In any case, The Ukrainian side has strong support from NATO.
The direction and outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, let us wait and see!
(Picture from the network)
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