The time came to April 3, and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered its 39th day.
Although Russia and Ukraine made some relatively positive progress in the Istanbul negotiations at the end of March, if these advances are not implemented for a day, it will be difficult to have a substantial impact on the current situation, and the conflict will not stop.
Therefore, although the online contact between the Russian-Ukrainian negotiating delegation has not stopped, the confrontation on the frontal battlefield has never stopped.
At present, with regard to the situation in Russia and Ukraine, at least three observation points cannot be ignored.
First, the Russian army turned to The Donbass, and the Ukrainian army began to "recover the lost land".
On the 3rd, the Ukrainian airborne assault force said that with the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kiev Oblast, the Ukrainian army has regained control of Pripyat, as well as most of the border between Belarus and Ukraine.
At the same time, the Ukrainian army in the area around Kiev also began to counterattack, and has now taken back more than 30 towns, including Irping, Bucha, and Gostomel.
Among them, the Ukrainian army also regained control of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant after the complete withdrawal of the Russian army, and held a ceremony to raise the Ukrainian flag on the morning of the 2nd.
In short, compared with the beginning of the War between Russia and Ukraine, the Russian army quickly launched a blitzkrieg and captured various important military facilities, and now the speed of russian retreat is also very fast.
It is foreseeable that as the Russian army continues to retreat, the Ukrainian army will recover more and more "lost land". But as the Russians move to the Donbass region, the fighting between russia and Ukraine in the region will become more intense.
On the 3rd, the US media CNN broke the news that several US intelligence officials have made an assessment that Russia's next strategic focus will be on controlling Donbass and other parts of Wudong, and is expected to set May 9 as the fastest victory date.
That is to say, according to the estimates of the US side, the Russian side will end the fighting on the Donbass front in more than a month, and it is "imperative" for the Wudong region.
In fact, the US side made this assessment for no reason.
First, "swallowing" Ukraine and attacking Kiev has not always been Russia's strategic goal, what Russia wants more is to force Ukraine to sit at the negotiating table by launching a blitzkrieg, to agree to Russian demands, such as Ukraine to remain neutral, denuclearized, and de-militarized, as well as to require Ukraine to recognize Russia's sovereignty over Crimea and recognize the independence of Eastern Ukraine.
Although the Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly revealed that the Russian military's operations in Ukraine are "proceeding according to plan," everyone understands the principle that the soldiers are fast and late, and if they can fight quickly and quickly, the Russian side is absolutely unwilling to delay the time.
Third, the 5th round of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has indeed made some progress, Ukraine has promised not to join any military alliance and give up nuclear weapons, and this point of "de-militarization" has also completed the "7788" in the process of the Russian army's continuous destruction of Ukrainian military objectives.
Therefore, there is no longer any need for the Russian army to deploy on a large scale in Ukraine, and now it is only necessary to concentrate its energy on the Donbas region, achieve the "independence" of Donetsk and Luhansk, and completely completely complete its strategic goals.
As for why, the United States expects that it will take more than a month for the Russian army to take the Donbass region, mainly because the main forces of the Ukrainian army and the "Azov battalion" are deployed here, and most of the battles here are mainly "street battles", which is not conducive to the large-scale operations of the Russian army.
Therefore, before the main force of the Russian army moved to Donbas, the Chechen army that was good at street fighting had arrived in Donbass in advance, and with the armed forces of Luhansk and Donetsk here, there were now 4 forces on the Russian side.
It is foreseeable that the next Battle of Donbass will be a key battle to determine the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, and it will also be an important battle to determine the final direction of the Russian-Ukrainian negotiations.
After all, what cannot be obtained on the battlefield is even more difficult to obtain at the negotiating table.
For Russia, after more than a month of fighting in Ukraine, it will not easily retreat if it does not complete its objectives. Especially now that the Russian army is retreating on a large scale and specializing in Donbass, it is even more impossible to be soft.
For Ukraine, the Donbass issue, like the Crimean issue, is a major matter related to territory and sovereignty, and it is obvious that it will not be easily let go.
Therefore, the next battle of Donbass will be an even more tragic battle.
Second, Ukraine is "recovering lost territory", and the Russian army is also continuing to "attack the city and plunder the wall".
On the 3rd, the Russian Defense Ministry said that the Russian air and space forces destroyed 51 military facilities of the Ukrainian army in the Donbass region in the night tactical air raids, including 4 command posts and 32 Ukrainian military strongholds.
At the same time, the Russian army also used high-precision guided weapons to destroy an oil refinery and three fuel storage depots in the Ukrainian city of Odessa on the morning of the 3rd, cutting off the fuel supply in the direction of Nikolayev.
Obviously, the Russian army is attacking the Ukrainian logistics support facilities, further weakening the Ukrainian army's ability to continue to fight, while cutting off the Ukrainian army's supply line, in preparation for the next battle of Donbass as soon as possible.
In addition, it is not difficult to see many "retaliation" meanings from the Offensive of the Russian Army, which is obviously related to the night attack of the Ukrainian army on Russian soil a few days ago.
It can be seen that if the peace treaty is not reached one day, Russia and Ukraine will not cease fire for a day, and now the battles between you and me will become more intense.
Although, today, the Russian army destroys the Ukrainian logistics base as part of the realization of the "de-militarization of Ukraine". However, it should be noted that many of these facilities are also related to people's livelihood and economy. For example, the Odessa refinery and oil depot destroyed by the Russian army this time have caused huge losses to the Ukrainian side, and it will be even more difficult to rebuild in the future.
On the 3rd, UNESCO said that at least 53 important historical sites in Ukraine were destroyed. This will be an incalculable and huge loss for Ukraine and the world!
Alas, the cruelty and sadness of the conflict are vividly embodied in this moment.
Third, under the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, 11 Ukrainian mayors were "captured", and Kiev was ready to turn to India for help.
On the 3rd, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Weleshev said that 11 Ukrainian mayors from Kiev Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast and other places were captured by the Russian army, and have now turned to the United Nations, the International Red Cross and other organizations for help, hoping that russia can release the detained Ukrainian citizens as soon as possible.
At the same time, In an interview with India's New Delhi Television, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba also issued a call for help to the Modi government, hoping that India could use its friendly relations with Russia to persuade the Russian side to stop military operations in Ukraine.
Kureba also said that Ukraine has always had trade with India, which is a particularly beneficial relationship.
Obviously, Ukraine wants India to act as a "lobbyist" this time, persuading the Russian military to cease fire or take measures to ease the current situation.
However, it should be noted that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, India has declared that it remains "neutral", not only refusing to sanction Russia with the United States, but also increasing the purchase of Russian energy.
Now that Ukraine has turned to India for help, Modi may accept an offer to mediate or remain neutral and refuse to help.
But in any case, the capture of 11 Ukrainian mayors will be one of the most important issues in Kiev at the moment. Moreover, no one knows whether in addition to these 11 people will be "captured" by the Russian army.
I have to say that this conflict has indeed brought great influence to Russia, Ukraine and the world.
Finally, let's talk about a few emotions.
As the war continues to increase day by day, the losses faced by both Russia and Ukraine are increasing exponentially, and the humanitarian crisis will become more and more severe.
What's worse is that Ukraine, as a major grain exporter and "European granary", and Russia is the world's main exporter of energy, the two sides are caught in war and cannot be put into production, which is bound to seriously affect the global food and energy supply.
At present, the United Nations has issued more than one warning that a "food crisis may be coming", and countries such as Britain, France and Germany have long sounded the "energy warning".
It can be seen that the Conflict between Russia and Ukraine is escalating, the international situation is also intensifying, and the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks have become more urgent and necessary.
In short, we still hope that all parties will maintain reason and restraint, actively promote the process of peace talks, calm down the flames of war at an early date, and restore peace!