1. Maintain a weak adjustment
Another difficult day! Today's three major indexes all fell by 1.2%, of which the ChiNext index continued to kill today after last Friday's big fall, only the first half hour after the opening of the market and 15 minutes before the close of the day, the other time is all the way down.
The difficulty of the plate is also very high, the old track plate due to no new industrial logic, coupled with the large increase in the past two years, after the Ningde era continued to kill, today's Oriental Wealth has a large amount of funds to smash the disk, and spread the loss effect to the entire financial sector; at the same time, the recently soared plate (digital currency / civil explosion concept) fell today, and the plate stimulated by the news (tourism / medicine) also has a rush to fall.
On individual stocks, the effect of losing money in popular stocks is relatively strong, high-level popular stocks such as Jincai Internet and Cuiwei Shares have fallen to a halt, and high-level stocks such as Hengbao Shares and Poly United have rushed up and fallen, which also confirms that I continued to be verified in last Thursday's "This operation strategy continues to be verified!" ", last Friday," "This section can be paid attention to? " and other articles remind of the hidden worries that have to be guarded against: once the high popularity plate and individual stocks have a disagreement, it will be very intense, and then there will be a suppressed view of market sentiment.
Overall, today, whether it is a sector or a stock, there has been a significant high-low switch. It also means that this oversold rally has begun to enter the watershed again. The post-holiday rebound began on February 7, with large infrastructure as the mainstay, supplemented by the digital economy, and the money-making effect was brought out by them. Therefore, the movement of these sectors tomorrow is very important.
If these sectors do not fall sharply tomorrow, they can continue to speculate. If these sectors fall collectively tomorrow, it is easy to trigger panic! Therefore, tomorrow we need to pay attention to the direction of these individual stocks and sectors:
Poly United, the high target of infrastructure construction, and the high target of the digital economy is Hengbao shares. Tomorrow, if there is a nuclear button or a close of a sharp decline in Hengbao shares and Poly United intraday, the market sentiment is likely to recede, especially the impact on the middle and high stocks is greater. If that happens, then it's time to take risk.
If today's stop-and-go ticket falls further tomorrow, or there is a new fall-stop ticket, then the medium and high-level follow-up stocks should pay attention to hedging. After all, these medium and high and follow the trend tickets, basically there is no advantage to make up for the decline against the trend.
In general, the market sentiment is still unstable, and it is still necessary to be cautious in operation before it is time to be aggressive. Last week's operation strategy is still in effect: the rhythm of operation is still in effect: down, buy, sell, fast in, fast out, repeated operations.
2. Pfizer new crown drug industry chain
Today, Pfizer's new crown drug industry chain has become the biggest winner in the market, and the new crown oral drug, CRO and other branches have a bright trend, and Tuoxin Pharmaceutical, Yaben Chemical, Jianfeng Group and other stocks have risen and stopped. News: Recently, the State Food and Drug Administration conditionally approved the import registration of Pfizer's new crown oral drug Paxlovid in the form of emergency review and approval.
This is the first oral drug in mainland China to be approved for listing, which is positive for the Pfizer industry chain. Pfizer is a treasure trove of drugs that are mainly used to treat mild and moderate COVID-19 patients, and clinical data show that paxlovid treatment within 5 days after the onset of symptoms can reduce the risk of hospitalization or death by 89%.
So, how big is paxlovid's market space? According to Pfizer's 2021 financial report, Paxlovid's revenue in 2021 will be $76 million after receiving FDA approval on December 22; it is expected to have a capacity of 120 million treatments in 2022, and revenue will reach $22 billion! Under the normalization of the epidemic, the market space is opening.
At present, Pfizer's new crown special drugs have covered 53% of the world's population, and after obtaining approval from the mainland, the target group will be further expanded, and related industrial chain companies will enter the harvest period. For example, companies that provide raw materials, intermediates, CDMO services and other related companies for Pfizer's new crown oral drugs are expected to benefit.
In addition, the mainland's approval of imported Pfizer oral drugs can further improve the existing epidemic prevention system and promote the rapid control of local epidemics and the recovery of offline consumption.
3. Noteworthy
(1) Rare earths
Today' rare earth mineral plate in the weak market atmosphere, the morning collective red, the essential reason is still the rare earth ore plate industry logic is hard and the overall position is not high. And
According to the latest industry news at noon today: today's rare earth prices continue to accelerate, the price of light rare earth praseodymium oxide continued to rise to 1.035 million yuan per ton, a daily increase of 4%; from Tuesday to Friday, the daily increase was 1.5%, 1%, 2.1%, 4%, the cumulative increase after the holiday was more than 10%, the cumulative increase of 22% in the past month, a new high in the past two years. The continuous acceleration of rare earth prices confirms the high prosperity of industrial logic.
(2) Oriental wealth
Today, Oriental Wealth suddenly plummeted, falling 14% by the close. There are two main reasons for this:
Dongcai has now entered the transfer period, and the transfer 3 is facing a strong redemption, which has shown significant retracement in the first two transfer periods (the amount of this transfer is 15.8 billion, which has a certain downward pressure, so most people choose to smash the market after the transfer of shares; in addition, from the perspective of public offering positions, most institutional investors entered in the 3-4 quarters of last year, and now the price has gradually broken through their cost line, so this position will further aggravate the volatility.
Other stocks fall trigger quantitative funds to hold positions in turn to fall, quantitative setting vol volume is mainly in accordance with Dongcai, CITIC, rapid decline is expected to trigger a stop loss for quantitative bullish signals, causing a decline.
In the long run, the transfer of residents' wealth to the stock market is a matter of high probability, and the most beneficial is still securities companies and public funds, and these two directions are the strengths of Dongcai. Therefore, the long-term opportunity of Dongcai is still OK. However, for the time being, during the big bull market in August 2000, Dongcai's turn 2 was a strong redemption, and the stock price pulled back by about 20% from the high point, while the current market is weaker, and the short-term decline is estimated to exceed 20% of the turn 2.
(3) Epidemic repair
Today, the tourism sector of scenic spots has risen sharply, and Caesar Tourism, Tibet Tourism, Qujiang Cultural Tourism, etc. have risen and stopped. Driving: The mainland entry and exit hall began to open passport exchange business; the State Food and Drug Administration recently conditionally approved the import registration of Pfizer's new crown oral drug.
Among patients currently infected with the new crown, more than 85% of patients with moderate and mild diseases can not only quickly eliminate the virus if patients can be treated with oral drugs at home, but also reduce the risk of transmitting others. Therefore, after the import of Pfizer's new crown oral special drugs into China, it will promote the adjustment of mainland policies, the orderly liberalization of entry and exit and the repair of physical prosperity are expected to be further enhanced, and those industries that have been suppressed by the epidemic such as tourism, aviation, airports, duty-free, hotels, etc. are expected to benefit.
After all, the epidemic has lasted for two years, and many people have been forced to stay at home. Once the epidemic slows down and the policy is relaxed, there is no doubt that there will be a large outbreak of demand for high-frequency peripheral short-distance travel and returning outbound tourism, which is conceivable. Just like the new energy vehicles between 2019 and 2021, due to the sluggish demand + supply clearance brought about by the big outbreak. Therefore, in the past two years, the industry that has been suppressed by the epidemic has the opportunity to clear its supply side is worth looking forward to!
I wrote on Friday's "Can This Section Be Followed?" The article also reminded everyone to pay attention to the epidemic repair sector, and at the same time sorted out a "epidemic relaxation concept stock", which is still worthy of reference.
brief summary
Overall, market sentiment is more differentiated!