For the United States, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is undoubtedly an earthquake, and the aftermath of this earthquake will continue to reverberate in the halls of the Pentagon for years to come, influencing the decisions made by Pentagon policymakers.
What is clear is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will almost certainly prompt Pentagon policymakers to call for increased and adjusted U.S. military spending, although domestic inflation and rising fuel prices may have a greater impact on the military budget than the Russian-Ukrainian conflict itself.
The US media believes that although the Kremlin has made many mistakes (and has not won an overwhelming victory) in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's status as the world's major nuclear power will still have a profound impact on the US nuclear strategy.
In 2022, the U.S. defense budget is $768.2 billion, and in February this year, foreign media reported that the Biden administration intends to raise the military budget for 2023, at least more than $770 billion. Although many Americans feel that under the severe situation of the new crown epidemic in the United States, Biden should cut military spending to fight the epidemic in the United States, the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has suppressed this part of the voice to a certain extent, and it is almost certain that the us military expenditure will rise in the next few years.
In addition, according to the forecast of the US media, the inflation rate in the United States will rise by 5.1% in 2022, which is obviously not good news for the Pentagon, which needs to buy a lot of fuel to support the work of tanks, ships and aircraft, and the rising operating costs of weapons and equipment will also increase the US military budget expenditure.
The impact of the currency should not be underestimated, but it is a problem that any country will face, and for the United States, the more pressing question is how to deal with the subsequent impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. It's not just a matter of increasing the military budget, but more importantly: The United States must now decide which military component to prioritize the payment of military budgets to.
The U.S. Army's Troubles: Why Can't The Total Increase in Military Spending Be Me?
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the call at home had been to lower the Army's military budget and instead spend more to support the Navy and Air Force — both of which were more important to America's global ambitions , and the Pentagon had always attached great importance to so-called "island-hopping tactics," in which the Army played a minimal role.
Of course, the U.S. Army has also been trying to prove its role in global hegemony, and they have actively developed ultra-long-range cannons (with a range of more than 1,000 miles, quite amazing) and new land-based hypersonic weapons, trying to prove that they will still be indispensable in future global hegemony, but with little success.
Fortunately, the emergence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has changed this situation to some extent. As the conflict intensified, the U.S. Army's Airborne Brigade and Stryker Armored Brigade began to enter Poland and Romania. U.S. media have called it a powerful symbol on the ground, representing Washington's commitment to its allies — because the war has just raged on the borders of those countries.
All of this should have prompted people to turn their attention to the U.S. Army and urged the Pentagon to raise the Army's military budget. Unfortunately, the Performance of the Russian Army in the Russian-Ukrainian Conflict was not outstanding, not only did it not destroy the expected scene of the collapse of the Ukrainian ground armed forces, but also suffered a lot of losses.
This leads to a problem: although the U.S. and Russian armies have not yet fought, there is a general belief in the United States that once the two sides fight, the Russian Army, which has not performed well on the Battlefield in Ukraine, is unlikely to be an opponent of the U.S. Army, so there is no need to increase military spending for the U.S. Army.
U.S. Navy: The conflict doesn't seem to have anything to do with me
In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the U.S. Navy's sense of presence is relatively weak, for two reasons. The first, of course, is that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has always been a land war, and the U.S. Navy has little to do with the conflict; second, because of the Montreux Convention, Turkey has the right to close the Bosphorus Strait, which is the gateway to the Black Sea and the Ukrainian coastline.
Turkey basically has the right to refuse any foreign warship passing through the strait, so the US media believes that Turkey can keep US warships out on a whim alone, which will lead to the long-term detention of the US aircraft carrier USS Truman in the Aegean Sea, unable to approach the battlefield of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
Therefore, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has basically no impact on the US Navy. Although the U.S. Navy is an important component of the U.S. maritime hegemony, it seems that in dealing with Russia, the role of the U.S. Navy has not been very large, and its military budget has accounted for a lot in recent years, so the possibility of increase is not large.
U.S. Air Force: Russian Air Force refueling
The U.S. Air Force has long flown F-35 Joint Strike Fighters and other fighter jets on NATO's "East Flank" (including the Baltic States, Poland and Romania) to strengthen the air power of NATO's allies. At present, the American people even call for the establishment of a "no-fly zone" over Ukraine, whether this operation is good or not, the only thing that can carry out these tasks is the US Air Force.
So, will the U.S. Air Force's military spending rise?
It's a pity. The current performance of the Russian aviation force is also not very strong. In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the Ukrainian Air Force has always been at a disadvantage, but the Russian Air Force has not achieved stable air supremacy. According to the US media, Russia's fighter jets seem to be short of ammunition, precision-guided air-to-ground missiles and spare parts for military GPS devices seem to be lacking, and even in recent times, Russian fighter jets have even been found to be helpless to use commercial GPS.
The Russian Air Force's unsperforming performance makes no one call for the US Air Force to increase the military budget, which also makes the US Air Force very helpless, and it is estimated that it is already eager to cheer for the Russian Air Force.
In general, the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict on the US Air Force is really weak. At present, the main strategic direction of the US Air Force is the development of hypersonic weapons.
U.S. Nuclear Forces: It's still up to me
Regardless of Russia's performance in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia's greatest confidence and the greatest threat to the United States has always been their nuclear weapons. According to U.S. media, Russia has 534 land-based ICBMs, sea-based nuclear missiles and heavy strategic bombers, totaling a total of 1,565 thermonuclear warheads, most of which are "pointed at the United States."
The US media believes that in recent decades, the US spending on nuclear weapons can be said to be very insufficient. The Pentagon is developing a number of new nuclear systems, including land-based strategic deterrent ICBMs, Columbia-class nuclear submarines and B-21 raid strategic bombers.
All of this will cost $634 billion in military spending over the next decade. Although some people in the United States currently believe that the United States can survive without new intercontinental ballistic missiles and strategic bombers, as long as Russia's nuclear arsenal is in one day, then the upgrading and development of Nuclear Weapons in the United States will be necessary.
It's hard to say how drastically the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will change the Pentagon's budget — unless Russia performs well in the war and quickly occupies Kiev, there will certainly be many in the United States calling for a comprehensive and massive increase in defense budget spending. However, Russia's performance in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has led many Americans to confidently believe that the US military is much better than the Russian army.
Therefore, in response to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the US military budget on all sides should only increase slightly at present - except for the significant increase in nuclear weapons - and the US media believes that Russia's combat capabilities on other sides have no way to prompt the Pentagon to increase its budget.
If one day U.S. military spending increases dramatically, it will certainly not be because of Russia, but because of some other, more powerful country.