The situation on the battlefield is undergoing major changes.
Upon waking up, Ukraine announced that the Ukrainian army had launched a counter-offensive and had recovered more than 30 towns around Kiev, such as Irpin, Bucha, and Gostomery, and that the entire Kiev region had been "liberated" from the Hands of the Russian Army.
It's just that many towns are already in ruins. Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused the evacuated Russian troops of leaving mines, abandoned equipment, and "even the bodies of the victims" around their homes on April 2.
U.S. satellite photographs showed that at Antonov Airfield, just 18 miles northwest of Kiev, Russian troops, who had been building fortifications, suddenly disappeared.
On the first day of the war, the Russian army captured the airfield, and the Russian and Ukrainian armies fought fiercely.
In addition, Russian troops have completely withdrawn from the Chernobyl region in northern Ukraine, and at 11 a.m. on April 2, the Chernobyl nuclear power plant held a ceremony to raise the Ukrainian flag, and people sang the Ukrainian national anthem.
The Russians are retreating rapidly, and the Ukrainians are constantly recovering lost territory, at least for now we are seeing the latest progress.
And that's how the war ended?
Ukraine doesn't think so.
Zelenskiy warned that Russia is only redeploying, that the towns left by the Russian army will be subject to long-range attacks such as rockets, and that the fighting in the east will be more intense.
The Russian military has also previously said that the first phase of the combat mission has been completed, and the next step is to focus on the "complete liberation" of the Donbass region in eastern Ukraine.
If this is the case, it is indeed not excluded that there will be no fighting on the Western Front and more fierce fighting on the Eastern Front.
The fiercest battle was still in the eastern port city of Mariupol. In more than a month of siege, 90% of the city's buildings have been destroyed.
The good news is that Russia and Ukraine have reached an agreement to allow 45 buses to sail to Mariupol to evacuate civilians hiding under the rubble; the bad news is that the fighting will continue, the Russian army is bound to win, and the complete destruction of the entire city in the street battle seems inevitable.
For the Russians, the capture of Mariupol would mean a major victory, with Crimea and the Donbass region joining together.
According to the analysis of the Polish prime minister, Ukraine may be divided in two, and the Russian army controls one-third of the territory in the east and south of Ukraine, and then everyone will talk slowly.
The worst-case scenario is the "Afghanization" of Ukraine.
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mikhailo Podolyak analyzed on April 2 that the West is hoping that Ukraine will be "Afghanized."
What is "Afghanization". His explanation is:
"'Afghanization' refers to the emergence of strong guerrilla resistance throughout the country, causing heavy losses to the aggressors for months or even years, thus greatly weakening the strength of the occupying army. This happened during soviet attempts to control Afghanistan: year after year, Afghan guerrillas destroyed and weakened the Soviet occupiers. As a result, the whole of Russia was weakened. ”
"Some of our partners believe that something similar could happen in Ukraine today. The Russians don't think so. They established bases in the east and south and prescribed harsh conditions. So if we wanted, we didn't have heavy weapons, we absolutely couldn't lift the blockade of the east and Kherson and drive the Russians back as much as possible. ”
When China met with Pakistan's foreign minister, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused the West of trying to turn Ukraine into a "second Afghanistan." "Those who are trying to turn Afghanistan into the political center of the world are now trying to replace Afghanistan with Ukraine," he said. We all know what's going on. ”
Taken together, what does it mean?
The meaning is also very clear.
1, the goal of the West is to "Afghanize" Ukraine and consume Russia through guerrilla warfare.
2, Russia is also aware of this, so the battlefield progress is unfavorable, quickly shrink the front, to maintain control of eastern and southern Ukraine.
3, Ukraine is not satisfied with the current situation, asking the West for more heavy weapons.
Heavy weapons are coming.
Britain previously announced that britain and its allies would provide Ukraine with "more lethal weapons assistance." The United States also promised on the 1st to provide Ukraine with another $300 million in arms, including switchblade drones, armored vehicles, night vision equipment and ammunition.
At the same time, the US media revealed that the United States will transfer the former Soviet-made tanks of Eastern European countries to the Hands of the Ukrainian Army as an intermediary. This will be the first time the United States has helped move tanks in a war.
What happens next?
Excuse me, I'm still pessimistic.
The peace talks are continuing, and the two sides seem to have made some breakthroughs. Ukraine has even said that it is willing to become a neutral country and not join any military alliance, but only if Ukraine is guaranteed security, and the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council must become Ukraine's security guarantee country.
But the fierce fighting in the east is not over, and Russia has not yet achieved its goal of "complete liberation" of Donbass. The Ukrainian army is also launching an offensive, including helicopters crossing the border into the Russian mainland and bombing a Russian fuel depot.
Neither side is satisfied with the current situation and is confident that if they can achieve victory, then it is unlikely that a breakthrough will be made in the negotiations.
Not to mention, crucially, the Attitude of the West.
British Prime Minister Johnson said that even if Russia and Ukraine reach an agreement, the West will not stop sanctions against Russia, and the sanctions will continue until all Russian troops withdraw from Ukraine.
As for Ukraine's security guarantees, Johnson believes that Putin is not trustworthy.
Seeing the interpretation of the Western media is that britain refuses to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, in fact rejects ukraine's neutral proposal, then the peace talks cannot have a positive outcome.
Not to mention, the United States, Britain and other countries continue to import deadly weapons.
Will Ukraine become the "second Afghanistan"?
I don't know, but can't rule it out entirely.
But we all know the final outcome of Afghanistan. The Soviet Union did not become a winner, and after 10 years of fighting, the Soviet Union had to withdraw its troops in 1989, but the old empire was also dragged down and the Soviet Union eventually disintegrated. The United States was not a winner either, and was repulsed, and the United States later fought in Afghanistan for 20 years, spent trillions of dollars, killed thousands of people, and evacuated in a hurry last year.
It's just the Afghans, starting with the Soviet invasion in 1979, until the withdrawal of U.S. troops last year. In the past 40 years, China has been trying to develop its economy, while Afghanistan has been constantly fighting wars, one war after another.
Yes, Afghanistan is the tomb of the empire, but on the other hand, generations of Afghans have been completely destroyed by war, and a "Swiss of the East", which was much richer than China, has become a hell on earth.
Poor Afghanistan, poor Ukraine, this terrible world!