Yesterday LeBron James missed the game due to an ankle injury, and the Lakers lost miserably to the Lone Rangers and were squeezed out of the top ten in the West. This morning, the Lakers officially announced that James will continue to miss tomorrow's battle with the Jazz, and Anthony Davis, who was previously rumored to return from injury, was also listed as a high probability of absence.
The lakers, who have been unfavorable for many years, are evolving in a direction that was once unimaginable, but now it is getting closer and closer to reality, and will they still have a chance to change their lives and take the life-saving boat of the playoffs?
The Lakers' real dilemma
The Lakers had a focus battle with the Nets on Jan. 26, when Durant Irving was both absent, and with James' 33 points, the Lakers won 106-96 on the road, rewriting the record to 24 wins and 24 losses, ranking 8th in the West.
At that time, the Lakers were two games behind the 6th Nuggets in the West (25 wins and 21 losses), and 5.5 games ahead of the 11th place Pelicans (18 wins and 29 losses), although far from the expectations before the start of the season, there is still hope of escaping the playoffs and directly winning the playoffs. This is still an acceptable situation for the Lakers, who are constantly injured and have poor running-in.
But just after that game, James' left knee swelled, missed five consecutive games, and shortly after his return from injury, thick eyebrows seriously sprained his ankle and has been suspended since Feb. 17. The Lakers' nightmare began, with only a pitiful 7-20 in the past 27 games, tied for 28th in the league with the Blazers in the same period, and had to pass the rotten Rockets.
Before yesterday's game with the Lone Rangers, Frank Vogel also spoke to the media, saying that "every next game should be treated like a playoff", but what he did not expect to come back was a fiasco, in the game, the Lakers were once 37 points behind their opponents, and they were beaten down.
To make matters worse, after losing this game, the Lakers' record fell to 31 wins and 44 losses, although it was equal to the Spurs, but because the two sides played 4 regular season games to a 2-2 draw, and the Spurs had an advantage over the Western Conference team, the Lakers were squeezed out of the top ten in the West. If the regular season ends here, the Lakers won't even qualify for the playoffs.
Today, the Spurs lost a point at home to the Grizzlies, temporarily returning the tenth place in the West to the Lakers, but the Lakers' play-off prospects are not much optimistic. The Spurs' opponents in the last 6 games have an aggregate win rate of 52.3%, the 9th in the league in terms of schedule difficulty, but two of them played against the Blazers, which is almost a guarantee of winning, and the others against the Warriors, Lone Rangers, Nuggets and Timberwolves, although the Spurs do not have an advantage in strength, but with their current state and vitality, they can also give it a go.
In these 6 games, the Spurs will eventually win 3, or even 4, which should be a reasonable expectation. This requires the Lakers to win 4 or 5 of their last seven games to gain a record advantage and rank ahead of the Spurs.
The problem is: the Lakers' schedule is even worse, their opponents in the last 7 games have a total winning percentage of 56.3%, the third difficulty of the schedule in the league, and considering James's injury, the uncertainty of the return time of the thick eyebrows and the state after the return, the possibility of the Lakers escaping is still not optimistic. Really, as Vogel said, every next game has to be fought as a knockout game.
Which games must the Lakers win?
The Lakers' last seven games are the Jazz tomorrow, the Pelicans at home on April 2, the Nuggets at home on April 4, the Suns on April 6, the Warriors on April 8, the Thunder at home on April 9, and the Nuggets on April 11.
In terms of paper strength, in addition to a battle with the Thunder, the Lakers are in a disadvantage, but considering the recent state of the opponent, there are still a few games, which the Lakers can try to seize the life-saving straw and must be won.
The ranking must be the first place in the game, of course, against the Thunder on April 9. The Thunder did not aim for the playoffs before the start of the season, and after entering the second half, it began to completely mess up the situation, and the team has announced that Alexander, Gidey, Dort and other core players are reimbursed for the season, and the team basically relies on a group of players who develop league level to complete the game task.
Although we do not doubt the professionalism of the players, as far as the whole team is concerned, the Thunder's expectations for the outcome of the game are actually the opposite of the Lakers. This is also the only "easy to play" game in the remaining schedule of the Lakers, if the ball can not be taken down, it can really "wash and sleep".
The second place in the ranking is the April 2 "card battle" with the Pelicans. The Lakers just had a game with the Pelicans on Monday, and in order to prepare for this key battle, James also specially chose a rotation in the previous game with the 76ers, but despite his efforts to cut 39 points in the end, the Lakers still suffered a reversal and lost the game.
This time again against the Pelicans, is the second back-to-back game, James announced in advance not to play the previous night's game with the Jazz, early return to Los Angeles to recuperate, may also be related to this.
Today's Spurs loss to the Grizzlies allowed the Lakers to temporarily return to tenth, but considering that the chances of playing the Jazz tomorrow are not high, if the loss and the Spurs' ranking will be reversed, so a game against the Pelicans may not be a "card battle" in the strict sense. Despite this, the Pelicans currently have an advantage over the Spurs and Lakers in only one game, and this ball must also be won. With Ingram returning from injury, the Lakers can imagine the difficulty of winning.
In addition to the above two games, the third real opponent the Lakers can fight to win is the Warriors who have struggled recently. While the Warriors are currently third in the West with 48 wins and 28 losses, their recent performances are far from matching the rankings in the standings. Because of Curry's injury, the Warriors have won 1 and lost 6 of their last 7 games (as of today and before the Suns), even the Magic and wizards can lose, and the Lakers naturally have a chance. Although in terms of record, the Warriors have to avoid falling out of the top four in the West, the reality determines that they are the easiest opponent for the Lakers to defeat besides the Thunder.
In the above three games, the Lakers have the opportunity to win, and they must also win, but if they want to surpass the Spurs in terms of record, even if they win all three games, it is not enough. In the other two games against the Nuggets, the Jazz and the Suns, they need a little bit of luck.
Among the three opponents, although the Nuggets are slightly inferior due to injury, under the leadership of the league MVP Jokic, the system is still there, and after they beat the Pacers today, they still have a great chance to hit the top four in the West, so they will not relax in a game. In the two games against the Nuggets, if the Lakers can win one, it is the biggest victory, and against the Jazz and the Suns, basically do not have to think.
According to the most optimistic estimate, the Lakers can win 4 of the last 7 games, whether they can enter the playoffs, but also depends on the Face of the Spurs, the decision is not in their own hands.
Scoring King or Play-offs, which is more realistic?
There is no official statement as to whether James will continue to miss the game with the Pelicans, but from the analysis of the actual situation, he should meet the team at home after the Lakers finish the Jazz's road trip. As long as his physical condition allows, James should not give up this season easily, because in addition to the qualification for the playoffs, he has an important goal to achieve.
As of the time of writing, James has averaged 30.1 points per game this season, still ranking first in the league. But that doesn't mean he can naturally win the scoring champion, except because Alphabet Brother and Embiid are still chasing after them (both currently average 29.9 points per game), and more importantly, the leading scorer has strict requirements for attendance, and James is not eligible for the election now.
Scoring King's eligibility requires players to have more than 70 percent season attendance, or at least 58 games based on 82 regular season games. James, on the other hand, has missed a total of 20 games so far due to ankle, belly and knee injuries this season (counting 21 games against the Jazz tomorrow), and the number of games (55) is still 3 games away from the "standard line".
So, if James wants to win the second scoring title of his career, he must play at least 3 more games, and even so, he will have to face fierce competition from two major opponents.
Since The All-Star Weekend, James has averaged 33.2 points per game, but his opponents have not spared much — Embiid averaged 30.8 points per game after the All-Star, Alphabet averaged 31.5 points per game, and the 76ers and Bucks are currently sprinting toward the first place in the East, deciding that their home stars must also go all out to play the final 10 days.
Still, the scoring king is still an easier goal for James to achieve than in the playoffs, but if he takes the top scorer and doesn't make it to the playoffs, that's the biggest irony of the league's signature figure.
And if he doesn't even get the scoring champion, he will have nothing to gain in the 2021-22 season.