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Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

Friendly reminder: Only for betting, not for reference.

Written on the front: Within ten days, the 94th Academy Awards will be "drawn". More than a month ago, the Oscars announced the list of nominees, which can be summed up in one sentence: although there are small surprises, there are no major surprises.

At the same time, another Academy Awards, the Hong Kong Film Awards in the field of Chinese films, was repeatedly searched for after the nomination list was announced due to the continuous postponement. Starting in 2021, the Academy Awards will be held with ups and downs, and the latest announcement shows that the award ceremony of this Academy Awards will be held in June.

And aside from the award ceremony, the front page of Entertainment (ID: wenyutouban) made up for the "10+5" film nominated for Best Picture, blindly guessing the final winner.

>>> the 94th Academy Awards

Let's take a look at the list of nominees for this best picture: "Belfast", "Listening Girl", "Don't Look Up", "Drive My Car", "Dune", "King Richard", "Licorice Pizza", "Jade Face Love Demon", "Canine Power", "West End Story".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

The 10 films have different themes and different tastes, including inspirational biopics, satirical anti-genre films, song and dance films that tell old stories, and science fiction films with outstanding audiovisual effects... There are those from the perspective of children, and there are those who analyze niche groups. In terms of directorial nationality, Asia, Europe, Oceania, the Americas have ... This year's Oscars are still equal distribution.

Among the nominations, the first to mention is "Dune", which is the only film on the list to be released in Chinese mainland. As a standard commercial blockbuster, Dune was nominated for as many as 10 Awards at this year's Oscars, second only to "Canine Power" in 12 of all films; in terms of global box office, "Dune" is also the leading 10-film break.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

It has to be said that "Dune" is first-class in terms of production standards, whether it is visual effects or sound effects, it represents the level of Hollywood's mature industrial system. But at the content level, "Dune" is not so eye-catching, and the topic of interracial oppression is not deep enough - this refers only to the results of parallel comparisons with other films on the nomination list, or that the highlights of "Dune" in production have robbed the limelight in terms of content, so that there is a perception that "form is greater than content".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

In fact, when "Dune" was released in Chinese mainland, many viewers said that they needed to supplement their understanding of the background and world view of the story after watching the movie, and when the film needed to let the audience do extra "homework", it would undoubtedly discount the perception. Therefore, the chances of "Dune" winning the best picture should be small, but the best visual effects, best sound effects, best original soundtrack and other technical awards, "Dune" has more prominent advantages; it cannot be denied that this is a film worth watching in the cinema.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

Let's talk about "The Power of Dogs". The narrative style of the whole film is slow, introverted, and even a little obscure, and overall it is a film with some viewing thresholds; but it is suitable for the story of the second and third brushes and the expression of the creator's point of view.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

In the film, character development is a major highlight - several characters have complex personalities, which are different from the social personalities they show in front of people. British writer Woolf said that "thinking about your gender when you create, you will make a devastating mistake", "The Power of dogs" puts society's prejudice and oppression of men under the theme of Westerns, and it is also a commendable place for the film. Although depicting a niche group, the quality of the film is unquestionable, and the 12 Oscar nominations and the golden globe award for best picture are all proof of the competitiveness of "Canine Power" as a "seed player".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

In addition, I have to say that the photography, composition and picture of "Dog Power" are quite brilliant, and it is pleasing to the eye.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?
Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?
Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

On social platforms such as Zhihu, many fans have also predicted the best film, among which "Belfast", "Driving My Car" and "West End Story" are also quite popular. "Belfast" belongs to the semi-autobiographical film of director Kenneth Branagh, the story is placed in the entanglement and experience of the protagonist's family before the relocation under the conflict of faith; in terms of volume, "Belfast" is quite light; in terms of narrative perspective, dominated by children, the extended themes of family affection and childhood are more likely to gain universal empathy; but overall, the film also has the suspicion of picking up "Roma".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

The film has a bright spot - in the case of the whole film narrated in almost black and white tones, the protagonist suddenly turns to color when watching the movie, so that the audience can easily get "some people use their lives to heal their childhood, some people use childhood to heal their lives". As an aside, the Finnish film "This Time and This Love", which was shortlisted for the 2021 Beijing International Film Festival, has a similar issue, the same narrative perspective, and the same light weight, which is also worth watching.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?
Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

Adapted from Haruki Murakami's short story, "Driving My Car" tells the story of a stage actor and director who, after his wife's death, became acquainted with his driver and recalled his life with his wife in the process of inner communication. The advantages of the film are outstanding: it has the warm characteristics common in Japanese films, the structure is rigorous, and the narrative is not driven by the plot, which is very experimental. With this film, Ryusuke Hamaguchi has won a number of "Best Director" awards, and has gradually entered the field of vision of global film fans; this year's Oscars, "Driving My Car", even if it does not win the best film, it is likely to win the best foreign language film.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

West End Story made Spielberg the first director to be nominated for an Oscar for Best Picture in every era from the 1970s to the 2020s. In the form of a song and dance film, the film places plots similar to Romeo and Juliet in the opposing gangs of the neighborhood. There are new ideas, and the completion of song and dance films is also very high, but the story is somewhat old, and unless there is a very bright breakthrough in song and dance films, it seems that it is still difficult to "beat" other drama films to get the best picture.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

What also needs to be mentioned is "Listening Girl" and "King Richard", which have relatively no viewing threshold in the nomination list. Audiences can easily substitute for the storyline of the two films, and have a good sense of the positive value that the film wants to convey: "Hearing Girl" (highly recommended!). Telling the musical dream of a listening girl in a hearing-impaired family, in the case of the nomination list generally needs to be deeply interpreted, the film is like a big chicken soup movie, but the humorous and healing tone makes the film get the highest score among 10 films on domestic and foreign rating websites such as Douban and IMDb.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

"King Richard" is based on the story of the tennis star Williams sisters, but this biopic focuses on their father. It can be seen that the creators want to convey an inspirational and upward energy through the film, but Richard Williams' slightly "chicken baby" parenting practice will inevitably cause some anxiety to the audience. Overall, it is not easy for the two films to win awards, but they are worth watching very highly.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

Others, such as "Don't Look Up", "Licorice Pizza", "Jade Face Love Demon", are more like "running" films, unless the Oscars want to show their "difference", then the talk show movie "Don't Look Up" may be the winner of the award. In short, this year's Oscar best picture should be produced from "Dog Power", "Belfast", "Drive My Car", on the whole, "Dog Power" is still the most "champion" (of course, from a personal point of view, I hope that the public's favorite "Hearing Girl" can win the award); if the prediction is not accurate, the author made a poison oath: 3 days do not drink milk tea.

It is also worth mentioning that if "Canine Power" wins best picture, Netflix's long-cherished "Oki Dream" will finally come true, and the film will become the first streaming film to win the Oscar for best picture.

>>> the 40th Hong Kong Film Awards

Let's take a look at the Academy Awards in the field of Chinese films. Due to the postponement of last year's awards ceremony, eligible films in 2020 and 2021 can participate in the Hong Kong Academy Awards, and the final best film nominations are "Fury" (i.e. "Fury • Serious Case"), "Mui Yanfang", "Wisdom Teeth", "Mama's Magic Boy", "Turbid Water Rafting".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

A department look.

On August 23, 2020, the front page of the entertainment was participating in the North Film Festival Forum in Huairou, and during the lunch in the media area, a peer exclaimed, "Chen Musheng has passed away!" Subsequently, the peers issued an intersection with director Chen Musheng in the circle of friends, which made people sigh.

"Anger" is Chen Musheng's posthumous work. "Fury" achieved a box office result of 1.329 billion, and after the release of the film, the audience did not hesitate to praise the performance of the villain Nicholas Tse. "Fury" shows the deep cultivation and mature industrial system of Hong Kong films in the theme of police bandits, and Chen Musheng's personal style is also more prominent, but at the same time, the plot of "Fury" is not new, and Chen Musheng's 2004 work "New Police Story" can even be said to be "similar", which may be understood as the impostor little policeman Xie Tingfeng, who gave Jackie Chan the strongest assistance in "New Police Story", and blackened into Wu Yanzu in "Anger".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

When "Mei Yanfang" was released, an article was written on the front page of the entertainment industry, commenting on some of the patterns of the film in the creation of biographical themes (extended reading: the flaws and broken defenses of "Mei Yanfang"), which will not be repeated here. However, it should be noted that after the window period, "Mei Yanfang" was launched in the form of 5 episodes of short drama Disney+, of which about 100 minutes of content was deleted to shorten the volume, in all fairness, with this 100 minutes of content filling, the logic before and after the short drama "Mei Yanfang" is indeed more reasonable.

"Wisdom Teeth", which is also a police theme, has many breakthroughs. Unlike some films that use black and white tones to highlight the style, "Wisdom Teeth" because of many scenes of fighting in the garbage heap, the use of color tones may distract the audience's attention or cause discomfort to the audience, the use of black and white tones makes the scene more "dirty and messy", the plot is more shocking; the extreme style, the unconventional ending, the imagery of the wisdom teeth and the core of the film also add a lot of color to the film. However, the creation of a "sense of the end of the world" makes the film too dark, and some logical abnormalities in the behavior of the characters have also caused a certain degree of word-of-mouth differentiation.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

Highlighting the high level of performance of the actors: Liu Yaser contributed the highest performance of his career; Lin Jiadong, the "most inconspicuous" of the three undercover undercover under the aura of "Infernal Affairs", was also a late success in reality, since winning the Hong Kong Golden Statue Film Emperor in 2017, this year, with "Wisdom Teeth" and "Hand Cigarette", he was nominated for two film emperors, and also won the best screenplay nomination through producer and screenwriter "Kill a Dusk", and he also played an important role in "Mui Yanfang".

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?
Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

After the release of the biopic "Mama's Magic Boy", the splash was flat, but the warm expression of disability and family affection can indeed convey inspirational and upward energy. Wu Junru's transition from comedian to tragic role is also natural, but overall it is not competitive.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

"Turbid Water Drifting" can be said to be a thematic breakthrough of Hong Kong films, which focuses on the lives and experiences of the sleepers under the overpass, perceives the social and people's livelihood, and has humanistic care; at the same time, in terms of narrative, the film has a sense of alienation - when paying attention to this numb group of people on the fringes of the city, it is not blindly rendering their suffering, but calmly recording, so that the audience can see that "poor people must have something to hate"; the film's lead actor Wu Zhenyu also has a brilliant performance, becoming the biggest contender for the Lin Jiadong Film Emperor Award. Observing the response of social platforms, the reputation of "Turbid Water Rafting" is also the highest among the 5 films.

Blind guess + recommended film| Oscar, Hong Kong Golden Statue, who will be the best picture?

From this point of view, "Wisdom Teeth" and "Turbid Water Drifting" are strong contenders for the best film at the Hong Kong Academy Awards, one is experimenting in the creative methods of genre films, and the other is innovating in local storytelling, it is really difficult to select one of them; in addition, it is not excluded that "Fury" has the possibility of winning awards because of Chen Musheng's filter. However, based on personal preferences, it is still bet that "Wisdom Teeth" will win the best picture, if not, poison oath double: do not drink milk tea for a week.

In fact, watching the movie itself is a matter of each eye, and whether they finally win the best picture or not will not stop some of its subtle effects on you.

-END-

Editor-in-Chief: Yi Wu

Author: Supper

Edit: Wu Kui

(Some of the pictures come from the Internet)

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