Since the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine on February 24, the bilateral military conflict has lasted for nearly a month, and in terms of the battlefield situation alone, although the Russian army has paid a certain amount of casualties and equipment losses, it has basically achieved the pre-war target, basically destroyed the Ukrainian military resistance force, and the Zelensky government has retreated to a few major cities such as Kiev. Despite russia's ability to capture Kiev, factors outside the battlefield had to make Putin reconsider the evolution of the Ukrainian landscape.
Quoting a number of foreign media reports, on March 17, local time, Russian President Putin and Turkish President Erdogan called, and the two sides fully exchanged views on the situation in Ukraine. Afterwards, the Turkish side said that Putin expressed his willingness to negotiate face-to-face with Zelenskiy during the call, but the Ukrainian side must agree to the five major peace conditions proposed by the Russian side. These five conditions are manifested as:
(1) Establish Russian as the official second language of Ukraine and remove all restrictions on Russian;
2. Recognition of Russian sovereignty over the Crimean region;
(3) recognition of the independence of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic" in the Donbass region;
(4) Ukraine removes Nazismization and ultra-nationalism, prohibits the activities of all Nazi groups and parties, and repeals all Laws of the Plum Nazis;
5. Ukraine de-militarizes and abandons the deployment of offensive weapons.
After many rounds of negotiations, the Ukrainian side has long figured out Russia's bottom line, zelenskiy himself declared that he "will no longer seek to join NATO", a fundamental change in attitude, I believe that Ukraine, which is extremely eager for an armistice, will seriously consider the five peace conditions proposed by Putin.
Almost at the same time that Putin and Erdogan spoke on the phone, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov informed the outside world that russia and Ukraine have made significant progress in recent bilateral negotiations, and the two sides have reached consensus on many key issues, especially "Ukraine is neutral, referring to the diplomatic model of Sweden and Austria." Obviously, Zelenskiy, who lost the battlefield, did not have any bargaining power with Putin, and only a comprehensive and complete truce was the only choice he could make.
Although the armistice itself is only to lay down weapons and withdraw from the battlefield, in practice it is not so simple, and without the "heavyweight" of other countries as a guarantee, it will be difficult to truly land a peace agreement. A few days ago, after the Turkish-Ukrainian foreign ministers' meeting, the Ukrainian authorities put forward a proposal that the five permanent members of the United Nations, plus Turkey and Germany, which play an important role in European security, serve as "guarantors" of the future Russian-Ukrainian peace agreement.
The Russian-Ukrainian armistice is everyone's expectation, but whether the "5+2" total of seven countries can reach consensus on this issue is still a big problem. From a practical point of view, the United States and Britain are very likely to obstruct the adoption of the peace agreement out of their own interests. A few days ago, the Biden administration just approved $800 million in military aid to Ukraine, the purpose of which is to deplete Russia's military strength, and it is best to let Russia fall into the quagmire of the Ukrainian war. Britain, a loyal follower of the United States, provided large amounts of military aid to Ukraine before the war, and encouraged many mercenaries to travel to Ukraine after the outbreak of the war. If you want to make the United States and Britain with a bad record, it is tantamount to making it difficult to go to the sky.
The influence of the United States and Britain is still an external factor, and more importantly, Zelenskiy himself has not completely given up the idea of breaking the net with Russia. At present, the Kiev authorities, on the one hand, have held peace talks with Russia and constantly released news of the consensus reached by the two sides; on the other hand, they continue to seek external assistance and even ask the West to set up a "no-fly zone" in Ukraine, which is nothing more than wanting to "delay and wait for change", fantasizing about changes in the battlefield situation, adding more negotiation chips for themselves, and even staged a reversal drama.
The more Zelenskiy is so rat-headed, the easier it is to provoke the Russian army to attack, the fall of Kiev is in an instant, if Zelenskiy at this time still can not show the greatest sincerity to negotiate peace, then more than 40 million Ukrainians will have to pay for his stupidity.