The Russo-Ukrainian War continued, and countries launched a "food defense war."
In particular, Ukraine has halted grain exports, including China, which will lead to a new round of global food prices, which will seriously impact the global food supply chain, and the world food prices will continue to rise, and even trigger a food crisis.
Ukraine halted food exports, the impact on the international?
For centuries, Ukraine has been known as the granary of Europe and is the second largest global agricultural exporter after the United States, with wheat, corn and barley exports accounting for about 10%, 16% and 15% of the world's total exports. Wheat, which produces 33 million tonnes of wheat per year, is the world's fifth-largest exporter. It is also a major supplier of cereals to countries in North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia.
The war, which would severely shrink or even completely deplete Ukraine's export capacity, would ban the export of a wide range of agricultural products until the end of the year, including barley, sugar and meat products, which would immediately lead to shortages in global cereal export markets.
This is yet another innocent disaster for countries such as Egypt, Lebanon, Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, which rely heavily on Ukrainian wheat.
Can the "food defense war" not be fought?
Faced with the threat of wheat supply shortage, Hungary, Bulgaria and Moldova, as wheat exporters, have also announced the cessation of wheat exports, and Moldova has also announced the cessation of corn and sugar exports.
Food-producing countries such as Hungary, Argentina and Indonesia have begun to adopt policies of restricting export trade to ensure domestic food supply problems and avoid high food prices.
Russia, a major grain exporter, has also hinted that it will take measures to restrict the export trade of some raw materials.
More and more key agricultural product producers have decided to restrict exports, many countries have followed suit, global food trade activities have been interrupted, and the current record high in food prices may increase by another 22%, and the most worrying thing is the straight rise in the price of wheat and other agricultural products, which may form a new round of rise again, perhaps a surge, and there may be a food crisis.
The rise in grain prices tests the financial resources of various countries, and it is necessary for the state to provide real money and silver to subsidize people's livelihood, avoid fluctuations in grain prices, affect the problem of eating, and restrict exports.
Ukraine's halt to food exports, the impact on the country?
Relative to the domestic situation, the data of the National Bureau of Statistics over the years show that grain has been "bumper", the total output has been "increasing", and China's grain self-sufficiency is 100% sufficient.
In particular, by the first half of 2022, China's grain stocks will account for 69% of global stocks of corn, 60% of rice, and 51% of wheat, respectively, all of which have increased by about 20% in the past decade.
However, we still have to soberly realize that there are still gaps in the mainland in categories such as "corn and soybeans". Corn, the demand for domestic breeding enterprises is also very large, or rely on imports to meet market demand.
In 2021, Ukraine is China's largest corn importer, with 30% of China's corn imported from Ukraine, mainly for feed. This time to stop, this market gap has to be filled, but quietly found that the United States is picking up leaks.
China, the world's largest corn importer, imported 200,000 tons of corn last week, ready to be shipped during the maize season, which begins on Sept. 1, the highest level since December, according to data released thursday by the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Although China was only the fourth largest buyer this week, the deal attracted attention as China has been buying corn from Ukraine. China is also a major buyer of U.S. soybeans, buying more than 800,000 tons of soybeans. This time, understand, the United States is waiting to pick up the leak, the fisherman to profit.
So, for this suspension of Ukraine, will domestic food prices usher in a new round of rise?
At present, from the overall trend of wheat prices in the country, there is a slight increase in stability. Compared with the domestic and international situation, the linkage of wheat prices is inevitable, wheat prices are still at a high level, firm operation, anyway, as an important ration of wheat, the price or will continue to remain high, easy to rise and difficult to fall. Judging from the overall trend of national corn prices, due to the international complex environmental impact, the number of sporadic cases in many parts of the country has increased, and a new round of rain and snow has increased, and the corn market has risen in the short term. However, even if the price of corn falls, the decline is difficult to continue, after all, the grass-roots surplus grain is gradually reduced, high-quality corn is more tight, and the international grain price may usher in a round of sharp rise in the short term, and the domestic corn market will enter the middle and late stages or will rise significantly.
In fact, the price of chemical fertilizers remains high, still rising, for farmers who grow grain, grain prices rise again, unless they rise to several times, otherwise the cost of growing grain continues to increase, and the "negative" income of agriculture is difficult to change, more or less, not many farmers are willing to continue to grow grain, even if subsidies are issued every year, it is also a drop in the bucket. Take this year, farmers can not afford fertilizer, who is willing to continue to grow corn or soybeans, will inevitably lead to a reduction in grain production or farmers to abandon planting, this is a reality.
In short, how to increase the price of grain and increase the enthusiasm of peasants in growing grain is the key. Once the food crisis comes, money can not buy grain, the supply chain is cut off by Europe and the United States, and then look at the importance of "hiding grain in the land, hiding grain in the people", it is too late!
Wen / Li Guomin / Cross-border Integration - Planner / Sannong Research Focuses on the preliminary planning, planning and design of projects such as rural construction, cultural tourism, and agricultural tourism!
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