Industry trends
Japan is an important semiconductor production base in the world, on the evening of the 16th, an earthquake occurred in its northeastern region, a large number of semiconductor manufacturers are located in the earthquake impact range, and some factories have suspended production.
What is Japan's position in the global semiconductor industry? In 2020, Japan will account for 15% of global semiconductor production capacity, especially in semiconductor materials, mature process logic chips, NADA Flash flash memory and other fields have an irreplaceable position.
In the field of semiconductor materials, Japanese manufacturers account for 52% of the global market share, as strong as the United States, Europe accounted for only about 15%, less than one-third of Japan. Among the 19 main materials used to produce chips, 14 are occupied by Japan as the first share of the market, and it is the world's largest semiconductor material.
The production bases of many global semiconductor manufacturers, such as Shin-Etsu Chemical, Tocera, Renesas, Kaguya, Katsugo, Fujitsu, Solar Pyrotechnic, Toshiba, NEC, Sony, Canon, and Panasonic, are basically in the Tohoku region of Japan, which is also the area where the earthquake was greatly affected. For the domestic substitution of related domestic subdivisions, it will bring certain investment opportunities.
1 Semiconductor wafer. Originally, the supply and demand of silicon wafers in the world were tight, and the orders of large factories have been scheduled until 2026, and the semiconductor-grade silicon wafers are mainly 8 inches and 12 inches. Japan's silicon wafer market is leading the world, and the two leading companies are Shingoe Chemical and Shenggao. Together, they account for 56% of the market share of 12-inch silicon wafers and 50% of the 8-inch silicon wafers, respectively. Both of these factories are within the scope of the earthquake. The long-crystal process of silicon wafer production requires a very high degree of stability, and the probability of being affected is high. The supply and demand of silicon wafers is very tight, which will further exacerbate the tight supply and demand of silicon wafers.
China is the world's largest consumer of silicon wafers. Previously, our silicon wafers could not reach the level of semiconductors in 8 inches and 12 inches, but in recent years, after continuous research and development accumulation and policy and technology tilt, domestic leading companies such as Shanghai Silicon Industry, Leon Micro, Zhonghuan Shares and other manufacturers have achieved product breakthroughs and mass production. Whether it is an 8-inch silicon wafer at the vehicle specification level or a 12-inch consumer electronics level, mass production has been achieved in China. There are investment opportunities for domestic companies that can replace and mass-produce domestically.
2 Photoresist. It is estimated that the global photoresist market space will exceed $10 billion in 2022. The mainland photoresist market space is expected to be 10 billion yuan this year, with an average annual growth rate of 12.5%, far higher than the global growth rate of 5.3%. This year is the first year of the substantial expansion of wafer manufacturers, photoresist is a derivative of the two sides of the lithography machine, the scope of application throughout the chip lithography, packaging and testing, PCB lithography, panel lithography, etc., applied to the lithography machine to use photoresist. At present, the four major Japanese factories in the photoresist market occupy 75% of the global market share: synthetic rubber, Tokyo Yinghua, Shin-etsu Chemical and Fuji Electronics.
This time it is likely that there will be a serious shortage of photoresists in 2021. The three areas of photoresist are g/i, KrF, arF, corresponding to PCBs, panels and chips. Domestic photoresists with chips below 14 nanometers cannot be replaced by domestic products. However, at 28 nanometers and above 28 nanometers, manufacturers such as Nanda Optoelectronics and Jingrui Co., Ltd. have made product breakthroughs. Panel KrF dry photoresist, Jianghua Micro, Rongta photosensitive and other companies have begun to achieve domestic substitution, is expected to achieve volume growth.
3 MCU chips, mainly MCU chips at the automotive level. MCU is a type of automotive grade chip, accounting for 30% of the value of automotive semiconductor devices. As cars continue to become intelligent, the value of MCU bicycles will continue to rise. Renesas Electronics of Japan is the world's third-largest automotive chip company and the world's largest MCU supplier, with a market share of 19%. Mainland China's sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.52 million units in 2021, an increase of 160% year-on-year, a record high. This year, new energy vehicles will maintain rapid growth, driving the continuous shortage of MCU chips.
Renesas' three plants will exacerbate the tight supply and demand for automotive chips within a magnitude 5 seismic range. Domestic automotive MCU chips, many domestic companies are already in the product introduction stage, and have begun to cooperate with domestic new energy vehicle companies, the value of this branch is relatively clear.
4 NAND Flash memory chip. Japan's large manufacturer with a market share of 20% of the industry was affected by the earthquake, and the NAND Flash flash memory market concentration is high, mainly by Samsung, Armored Man, Western Digital, Magnesium, SK Hynix and Intel 6 account for more than 90% of the global share.
Among them, Samsung's market share is 33.7%, and the armored market share is 19.2%. This may lead to further contraction of the NAND Flash supply. Domestic in this direction has a large factory force, Yangtze River Storage and Changxin Storage is one of the leaders, has begun to domestic substitution, and in the fifth generation began mass production, this part will accelerate the domestic replacement.
Some affiliates
688126 Shanghai Silicon Industry 002129 Zhonghuan Shares
603078 Jianghua Micro 300346 Nanda Optoelectronics
300655 Jingrui Electric Material 300576 large capacitance sensitivity
603986 Gigabit Innovation 300131 Yingtang Intelligent Control
Daily market view
1. Yesterday the market after experiencing panic, in the policy bottom of the consensus under the gap rebound, today did not fill the gap to continue to rise, Thursday's gap must be paid attention to, the 3177-3202 point gap is very likely to be filled!
2. The rise of the ChiNext board today seems to be a little blocked, and now it is facing the pressure of the 60-minute structural center, and it is normal to step back in the short term, or shock digestion. Then the GEM may have a process of gathering momentum, and then complete the breakthrough of the pressure level
3. The central bank has continuously cut the reserve requirement and cut interest rates since December last year to release liquidity, indicating that the policy bottom has appeared; but the market bottom structure is more complicated and there is a time lag between the policy bottom, the pace of A-share bottoming has not stopped, and the financial committee meeting and the intensive voice of many ministries and commissions on March 16 accelerated the construction of the market bottom
The northbound funds have shifted from a sharp outflow to an inflow, which is conducive to the repair of market sentiment. Coupled with domestic easing expectations, the economic bottom or gradually appear, it is expected that the domestic market wind bias is expected to gradually repair before the next Fed interest rate decision
Industry news
Multi-sectors such as the central bank: promote the establishment of financial institutional mechanisms that are compatible with the construction of the Zhejiang Common Prosperity Demonstration Zone
On March 18, the Central Bank, the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the People's Government of Zhejiang Province jointly issued the Opinions on Financial Support for The Construction of a Common Prosperity Demonstration Zone for High-quality Development in Zhejiang (hereinafter referred to as the Opinions), proposing to further deepen the structural reform of the financial supply side, promote the establishment of a financial system mechanism compatible with the construction of the Zhejiang Common Prosperity Demonstration Zone, adhere to "finance for the people", advocate "financial goodness", and firmly adhere to the bottom line of no systemic financial risks
Relevant departments interviewed some lithium salt enterprises to promote the reasonable and stable operation of lithium prices
The Financial Associated Press reporter reported that it was learned from lithium salt enterprises and other parties that the relevant departments recently interviewed some lithium salt enterprises, the content is mainly to promote the reasonable and stable operation of prices, and the meeting particularly emphasized that upstream enterprises should jointly promote the benign development of the industrial chain
The National Development and Reform Commission released the key tasks for new urbanization and urban-rural integration development in 2022
The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Key Tasks for New Urbanization and Urban-Rural Integration Development in 2022", proposing to continue to deepen the reform of the household registration system. All kinds of cities should, in accordance with the carrying capacity of resources and the environment and the actual needs of economic and social development, smooth the channels for the agricultural transfer population with stable employment and life in the local area to move their families to the city and settle down. Cities with a permanent population of less than 3 million in urban areas have implemented a comprehensive policy of abolishing restrictions on settlement. Cities that implement the points settlement policy ensure that the number of years of social security contribution and the number of years of residence account for the main proportion
(688223) JinkoSolar: Plans to invest 10.8 billion yuan in Shangrao to build a 24GW high-efficiency photovoltaic module and 100,000 tons of photovoltaic module aluminum profile project
(688223) JinkoSolar: Plans to invest 10 billion yuan in xining economic and technological development zone to build a 30GW monocrystalline pull rod photovoltaic industry project
(688298) Oriental Biologics: The new coronavirus antigen detection reagent has added Japanese PMDA sales license and Saudi MDMA certification
(688559) Haimuxing: Won the bid for 433 million yuan project
(300569) Tianneng Heavy Industry: It is planned to raise no more than 2.07 billion yuan for Tianneng Heavy Industry Wuchuan 150MW wind power and other projects
(600032) Zhejiang Xinneng: Plans to raise no more than 3 billion yuan
(600392) Shenghe Resources: Intends to apply for registration and issuance of medium-term notes of not more than 1.5 billion yuan
(603679) Huati Technology: The application for non-public issuance of shares was approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission
(603799) Huayou Cobalt: Convertible corporate bonds were listed on March 23
Knowledge sharing
What is the segmented buying method?
The segmented buying method, the specific practice is to buy the first batch at a certain price, buy the second batch when the stock price rises to a fixed price level, and then buy the third and fourth batches at different prices. In this process, once the stock price falls, investors can either stop investing immediately or sell their purchased shares according to the actual situation
The advantage of the segmented buying method is that it can effectively reduce risk, but at the same time there is a disadvantage of reducing investment returns
When investors can not accurately grasp the trend of the stock market, if investors invest all their funds in one go to buy a stock that is expected to rise, then when the price of the stock does rise sharply, investors can get very rich profits; but if the stock price falls, investors will suffer greater losses. To protect against this risk, investors can adopt a segmented buying method