The Ukrainian war has become a tug-of-war, the Far-reaching Assault of the Russian Army has encountered great difficulties, and there are constantly videos of the Ukrainian Army ambushing the Russian convoy and helicopters circulating. The West took the opportunity to clamor that the Taiwan military should take the hedgehog route and equip a large number of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles, causing a large number of casualties when the PLA landed, and thwarting the great cause of the motherland's rejuvenation. Not to mention the sinister intentions in politics, militarily this is also a mistake in copying the work.
Russia attacked Ukraine not to occupy it, but to establish a buffer zone. Russia will withdraw from Ukraine after it has reached de-militarization and de-Nazismization. This is what Putin has long announced, and how to cash in the end depends on the development of the war situation and the political situation. However, the People's Liberation Army has only one situation and one purpose in landing on Taiwan Island: Under the circumstance that Taiwan independence crosses the red line, it is forced to intervene and reunify the motherland by force. This is not to build a buffer, much less to evacuate. This has fundamentally changed the nature and direction of the war in the Taiwan Strait.
For political reasons, the Russian army did not seriously attack the Ukrainian air base, air defense base, command and communication system in the initial stage of the operation, and even more so far it has not attacked the water supply, power supply, gas supply, roads, bridges, railways, broadcasts, telephones, networks, airports, and port facilities of strategic value, nor has it attacked the Ukrainian political leadership. In the Taiwan Strait war, these will become the first wave of targets of the PLA. Strikes include traditional hard kills and soft kills such as electromagnetic attacks. There will be no problem that a few days after the start of the operation, there will still be problems in which Taiwan military combat aircraft and medium- and high-altitude anti-aircraft missiles are still active.
After the realization of air defense suppression, the activities of PLA combat aircraft are mainly in the air and high altitude, beyond the range of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles can only threaten helicopters that are still operating at low altitude and low speed. Fixed air defense positions are easy to solve, can be pulled by trucks can not talk about mobile air defense positions, but can be redeployed semi-fixed air defense positions, withdrawal, mobility, redeployment takes a lot of time, convoys are also large, easy to find and lock, hit.
In Ukraine, the Ukrainian army inherited the Soviet military system, a large number of mobile air defense systems, according to the design is to accompany the field troops to move, detection, command, missile integration on the same hull, good mobility, not easy to find, sensitive response, such as SA-11, which the Taiwan military does not have. The US military relies on the air force to control the air, and air defense as a whole is a weakness, and naturally it cannot be provided to Taiwan. Ukrainian mobile anti-aircraft missiles made Russian combat aircraft dare not move in the hollow.
Hollow is the favorable height of air-to-ground combat. The closer to the ground, on the one hand, the more conducive it is to find and confirm the target, on the other hand, the greater the relative speed, but it flashes by, and it is easy to miss the target. Hollowing is a good compromise. Hollow is also above the effective firing height of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and small-caliber anti-aircraft guns, as long as the opponent's mobile and fixed anti-aircraft missiles are suppressed, the action is safer than low altitude, and observation is more realistic than high altitude. In the case of using guided weapons, as long as the problem of observation and aiming is solved, the range of high-altitude projection is greater, which is more conducive to strikes outside the visual range and safer.
Due to the pervasive air defense threat, low-altitude penetration was the main means of penetration in the Cold War era, minimizing the exposure window to the ground, and also using the precise navigation of the aircraft itself to improve the accuracy of bomb hits; for the air, the ground clutter cover was used. However, the response of the air defense system is getting faster and faster, and the low-altitude penetration defense is just "caught" in the window, and it is less fierce. The anti-ground clutter ability of air radar is also getting stronger and stronger, and the cover effect of ground-based flight is also getting lower and lower. In the Gulf War, the loss rate of the US Air Force in air bombardment was much lower than that of the British Air Force that bombed at low altitude, and after the war, it basically abandoned low-altitude penetration, and the focus turned to air defense suppression, using long-range observation to guide guided weapons to improve hit accuracy.
Ukraine is in a special situation. The Russian military lacks guided weapons, and also lacks effective reconnaissance means, can only rely on traditional visual sight and low-altitude approach bombing, but also must reduce the speed, avoid a flash, just into the range of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles, but this will not be a problem for the PLA, just as this has not become a problem for the US military.
In fact, the use of shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles on the battlefield began in the Vietnam War, and the Vietnamese army equipped the SAM-7, but it was not used in helicopters, but tried to use it for the more valuable "ghost" type, which was not effective. In the October War, the Egyptian army also had Sam-7, which also lacked records. The Afghan war is where the "Stinger" shows its skills, but the mountainous terrain is complex, the "Stinger" is sometimes even launched from a commanding height, the range is increased, and the Soviet Mi-24 and Su-25 are still the traditional low-altitude and low-speed tactics, which are in the arms of the "Stinger".
On Taiwan Island, the PLA has many means of air defense suppression and does not rely on the hard killing of aircraft. After the completion of air defense suppression, the hollow PLA combat aircraft and drones were immune to the "Stinger". This assignment is a big mistake.
Anti-tank missiles are even more wrong. By the time anti-tank missiles might be able to exert their power, PLA tanks and armored vehicles had reached the gates of cities large and small on The Island of Taiwan. When the battle comes to this, it is the end.
In any case, once the PLA has landed on Taiwan Island, there is no possibility of failing to fulfill its sacred mission of reunifying the motherland. Gentle and elegant is not enough, it is simple and rude.
Tactically, the armored column should consider equipping a special armored vehicle, which can be modified from an open-top vehicle-mounted mortar to free up the space of the mortar and enlarge the multi-rotor unmanned aerial vehicle such as Xinjiang. As the convoy marched, it dispersed its reconnaissance 2-3 kilometers ahead, carefully searched the woods, houses and hills, and ascertained the enemy's situation, and the problem of fire suppression was solved. When encountering suspicious targets, you can also stay on both sides and observe closely until the convoy passes.
Such a small drone has insufficient endurance time, which needs to be continuously recovered and released from the open-roof armored vehicle. Civilian-grade DJI only has a 30-minute battery life, or too limited, if you can increase the battery capacity, the endurance time increased to more than 120 minutes, the usefulness is greatly improved.
After the military modification, it is also necessary to change from ordinary visible cameras to multispectral, and infrared is more useful at night and in bad weather. These are all within the scope of Chinese technology, and the cost is also controllable.
Target discovery and guidance of anti-tank missiles require sophisticated electronic systems. With the development of vehicle-mounted high-power microwave weapons, it is possible to achieve non-lethal electromagnetic killing. This is not only effective for electronic systems with antennas such as radar and communications, but also for any electronic system that does not have a perfect shield, which can penetrate through exposed wires (equivalent to antennas) and burn the lines. Exposure refers to electromagnetic exposure, plastic boxes are useless, metal conductor boxes also need to be seamless and porous, and anti-tank missiles are difficult to do in combat. Of course, mobile phones, televisions, computers, and automotive electronics within the "range" range will also be "victimized." According to public reports, China has made great achievements in weapons-grade high-power microwaves, and actual combat is not far away.
The United States has also proposed that Taiwan be equipped with a large number of amraam or ESSM2-based mobile anti-aircraft missiles and mobile-launched Harpoon missiles. It seems that AMRAAM and ESSM2 have active radar guidance, and the range and height of fire are much more than the "stinger", which is very powerful. The problem is that such a strong force must be premised on radar early warning and command and control, otherwise it is blind. These radars and command and control are definitely priority targets. "Patriot" and "Heavenly Bow 3" are all knocked out, these can't be beaten? Think too much. The reason why the Stinger is difficult to deal with is because it is observed by visual observation, unless all the living creatures on the ground are destroyed, and only when it is launched will it know that there are missiles here. Of course, flying above hollow, this problem is also solved. The same is true of the "harpoon" launched by maneuver, without early warning and command guidance, it becomes a super large bazooka.
It's a gentle way of playing. If you can't do it, there is a simple and rough way of playing, to put it bluntly, demolishing the building.
The PLA does not have the 240 mm mortar and 203 mm howitzer like the Russian army, but the heavy bombs dropped by the aircraft are more powerful, and the tank guns have special barrier-breaking shells, and one shot can blast through the reinforced concrete thick wall two meters square. Large-caliber rockets can also be easily modified, a large amount of fuel space is replaced with explosives, the range does not need to be so much, but the explosive power is greatly improved. 300 mm or 370 mm long-range rockets have a large body of projectiles, if replaced by super-caliber modules, 750 mm ammunition is more powerful, equipped with satellite navigation or end guidance, is a precise and powerful barrier-breaking weapon.
A little simpler and rougher, with a thermobaric bullet. This is to enter the wall, release flammable and explosive aerosol, reach a certain degree of diffusion after detonation. Because the distribution of "explosives" is more uniform, the explosive power is more uniform and the destructive force is extremely large. Aerosols consume a lot of oxygen in violent combustion explosions and can also cause suffocation deaths. Powerful overpressure "liquefies" the organs in the body, and the lethality is huge.
In liberating Taiwan, we must certainly consider the fact that compatriots on both sides of the strait are originally one, but if there are die-hard Taiwan independence elements who resolutely obstruct the reunification of the motherland, then we must resolutely smash them, or rather, liquefy them.
Under the precise navigation of satellite navigation, the thermobaric bomb can also accurately control the impact point, accurately control the dispersion of aerosols, and accurately control the detonation time. If multiple thermobaric bombs detonate at the same time, the shock waves can enhance each other, and the effect is no less than that of tactical nuclear weapons. Of course, this is not a nuclear weapon, and the threshold for use is much lower.
Anti-tank missiles cannot stop the PLA from liberating Taiwan.
The United States and NATO are also heavily assisting Ukraine with various military equipment, but the Russian attack on the Yavoliv base shows that the Russian army will attack the military aid channels and the assembly areas of foreign volunteers. Ukraine and NATO's Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania have long land borders, and it is not easy for the Russian military to "plug the leaks."
Taiwan is different. The PLA can blockade the sea and air, unless the United States is prepared to directly engage China, it will be much more difficult for the United States to need military assistance in wartime.
But the Ukrainian war still has implications for Taiwan:
1, the U.S. military is unreliable, do not expect to save lives
2. The Russian army will eventually withdraw from a broken Ukraine, but if Taiwan independence is stubbornly resisted, not only Taiwan will be destroyed, but the People's Liberation Army will not have the problem of evacuation at all
There is also a big revelation: the Russian army seems to be pulling across, but in 15 days to lay down 6.8 Taiwan area, an average of 2.3 days to hit a Taiwan. This does not take into account the cross-sea factor, but it also shows that it is futile to stop the PLA with shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles and anti-tank missiles, because it can only be used after the PLA has landed on Taiwan Island.
In other words, after the People's Liberation Army landed on Taiwan Island, it would take as little as 2-3 days and as much as five days a week, and there was no pressure to control the entire territory of Taiwan except for the big cities. The time required for the remaining siege and siege depends on when the remnants of the Taiwanese army surrender or are destroyed.
How much time does the PLA need to get to King's Landing? Only God knows!