Introduction: This week, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in the northwest region fell slightly, and the overall building materials output did not change much. According to Mysteel research data, this week's leading steel mill blast furnace winter break and suspension of production is fully over, only a 2500m³ blast furnace of Eight Steel has not yet resumed production (it is expected to resume production at the end of March), the blast furnace operating rate is 93%, which is close to the production level during the peak demand season. From the perspective of inventory, the inventory of 15 steel mills in the northwest region has increased to 1.23 million tons, which is close to the high point of 1.3 million tons in the same period last year, and the pressure on the factory warehouse has gradually increased. The following author will make a simple analysis from the production situation, inventory and price changes of building materials production enterprises in the northwest region.
First, the production of blast furnaces in steel mills in the northwest region
This week, my steel network on the northwest region of 15 construction steel production enterprises in the same caliber survey shows that the current northwest region of 15 steel production enterprises 38 blast furnaces actually started 35 blast furnaces, Shaanxi region added 2 blast furnaces to resume production, the rest of the region to maintain the status quo. The overall operating rate of blast furnaces was 92.1%, down 5.2% week-on-week; the actual output of blast furnaces was 710,000 tons, a decrease of about 0.2 million tons week-on-week; the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces was 85.8%, flat week-on-week.
From a sub-regional point of view, the production of blast furnaces in Xinjiang resumed, the output of building materials increased year-on-year, the production changes of steel mills in Ningxia and Gansu were limited, and Shaanxi LG was affected by the epidemic and was in a state of suspension. At present, the winter break of xinjiang regional steel mills has ended in an all-round way, and the steel mills have entered normal production activities, with an average daily output of 25,000 tons of construction steel, which is basically close to the production level of The peak season of xinjiang construction steel market demand, other regions temporarily maintain unsaturated production, and the supply growth space in the later period is still large.
Second, the production of building materials production lines in steel mills in the northwest region
This week, 41 production lines of 15 construction steel manufacturers in the northwest region actually started 41, and the rolling line operating rate was 85.4%, down 4% week-on-week; the actual output of building materials production lines was about 660,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of about 0.5 million tons, the capacity utilization rate was 79.8%, down 0.3% week-on-week, and the reduction part was mainly in Shaanxi LG Steel Mill blast furnace shutdown and two rolling lines were simultaneously overhauled.
Week-on-week, the average daily output of Xinjiang steel mills increased to 24,900 tons, the ningxia region NXJL rod line decreased by an average of 10,000 tons per day, the rest of the rolling line maintained unsaturated production, Gansu and Shaanxi region changes were limited; month-on-month, Xinjiang region increased in the front, Shaanxi region fell more. Year-on-year, the decline in Ningxia region reached 40%, and the proportion of changes in the remaining three provinces was around 8%-16%.
Third, the inventory of major steel mills in the northwest region
This week, the growth rate of mainstream steel mill inventories in the northwest region slowed down, but there was no inventory inflection point. The total inventory in the northwest region was 1.2328 million tons, an increase of about 34,800 tons week-on-week, an increase of about 180,000 tons month-on-month, and a decrease of about 70,000 tons year-on-year.
Overall, in recent days, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces have been greatly affected by the epidemic, resources can not be distributed to the relevant areas, the current demand release in the northwest region is still not ideal, in addition to the Xi'an market to maintain stable shipments, the rest of the mainstream market transactions have not yet formed a stable amount of physical goods, the price performance is relatively weak, spot prices are still possible to adjust. At present, the inventory pressure of steel mills is still in place, the willingness of agents to receive goods is more cautious, steel mills are subject to high costs, the transmission of resources to the downstream is not smooth, the output of some regions continues to rise, steel mills have higher requirements for the rhythm of destocking, it is expected that short-term spot prices will still be under pressure, and the price performance in the region may be slightly differentiated.
Note: From February 10, 2022, the survey sample data of the leading steel mills in the northwest region was updated to a total of 15 steel mills under investigation, with a total annual production capacity of 43.23 million tons of blast furnaces and a total production capacity of 42.35 million tons of rolled steel for construction steel. There are 13 steel mills in the original sample, with a total annual production capacity of 42.04 million tons of blast furnaces and 33.35 million tons of rolled steel for construction steel.