Recently, Wang Boming, editor-in-chief of Caijing magazine, interviewed Huang Qifan in his own column "Talking about a Wave" to discuss the new pattern of China's real estate development in the past 40 years and the next 10 years. Because Huang Qifan's insight into real estate is quite professional, it has always been considered a bellwether for real estate at the government level.
Just on March 16, the Financial Stability and Development Committee of the State Council held a special meeting, presided over by Liu He, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council and director of the Financial Commission. For real estate, the requirements put forward by the meeting are to study the plan for effective prevention and resolution of risks, and propose new development models and supporting measures for transformation.
▲As a top think tank in the mainland and an expert in the financial field, Vice Premier Liu He is very professional about the problems in the financial field.
After the meeting, the five departments of the Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the Foreign Exchange Bureau, and the Central Bank conveyed the spirit of the meeting of the Financial Commission of the State Council, and all made relevant statements and policy elaborations on the real estate industry. Mingge carefully looked at the content released by the five ministries and commissions, or the word "stable" was the mainstay.
Combined with some of the views huang Qifan said, you will actually understand that the policy was in the end last year, but the confidence of the market has not returned, and the market is still recovering.
As a representative of Chinese scholar-type officials, Huang Qifan's views and views on real estate are something that real estate people must learn. He single-handedly planned and built the Shanghai Pudong New Area, turning Shanghai Pudong from a beach to today's world financial center, witnessing the history of four times the domestic land price in 20 years.
▲ Pudong's current achievements are inseparable from the forward-looking planning of that year.
After becoming the mayor of Chongqing, Huang Qifan successively teamed up with three municipal party secretaries. Since Chongqing is a municipality directly under the central government, the secretary of Chongqing is equal to other provinces, and the rank of provincial party secretary is equal to the mayor of other provinces. Huang Qifan's ability to work with three secretaries is enough to show his ability.
As a well-known scholar-type official in China, Huang Qifan has an unusually keen prejudgment of economic policy.
During the years when Huang Qifan was in charge of Chongqing, Chongqing's economy has made remarkable achievements, and its GDP growth has maintained double digits for many consecutive years, ranking first among all provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities. Chongqing's economic reform has also been at the forefront of the country, and the original "land ticket model" has become an example for many cities to learn from.
▲ He built the mountain city of Chongqing into a well-known "net red city" and the economic center of the southwest.
So what did Huang Qifan say this time?
Chinese there is no shortage of houses
Huang Qifan first reviewed the 40-year development process of China's real estate and why houses and house prices are rising. In essence, the release of China's urbanization demand, a large number of rural people poured into the city, turned into urban population, and led to the vigorous development of the real estate market.
After 1980, the per capita housing area of China's 180 million urban residents was 5 square meters, and the demand for housing was certainly huge.
However, by 2020, the per capita housing area in Chinese cities has reached 50 square meters, and the housing area of a family of three is 150 square meters. The per capita 50㎡ has exceeded the housing level of developed countries in Europe and the United States, considering the level where Huang Qifan is located, Mingge is more willing to believe the caliber data he said.
50㎡ per capita, what a concept. In 1993, Pan Shiyi, one of the "Six Gentlemen of Wantong", consulted the local internal economic statistics for 5 kilograms of oranges and 1 cigarette in Hainan. It was found that the per capita housing area under construction in Haikou City has reached more than 50 square meters, while the per capita housing area in Beijing in the same period was only 7 square meters. Intuitively, Pan Shiyi felt that the bubble of Hainan real estate was about to burst, and quickly mobilized others to flee Hainan, perfectly avoiding the "Great Depression" of Hainan real estate in the second half of 1993.
▲ This great retreat from Hainan made the "Six Gentlemen of Wantong" a god in the first battle.
Now, China has reached the threshold of 50 square meters of per capita housing area, which means that Chinese now have no shortage of houses to live in.
This is only a superficial phenomenon, from a deep level, why are there still many people still shouting "high house prices", "can't afford to buy a house", "no house to live" these voices?
It can only be explained that at present, what Chinese lack is not a house, but a house in a first- and second-tier core city.
What Huang Qifan did not say was the investment direction of real estate in the future. In the future, in addition to the core areas of first- and second-tier cities, houses in other third- and fourth-tier cities will become more and more worthless.
▲The house in the core area of the first- and second-tier cities is the place where the future house can increase in value and preserve value.
Because Chinese there is no shortage of houses to live in now, and there will not be much value-added space.
The inflection point of the property market has arrived
Recently, it has been said that "the policy is relaxed, and the spring of real estate is coming back", but according to Huang Qifan, the inflection point of the property market has arrived, and the future will enter the "new normal period" of real estate.
The inflection point was in 2017, when the new supply area of China's real estate was 1.7 billion square meters, and by 2021, the total amount remained at 1.65 billion square meters of new supply area. The supply area can be seen in the future increase of the real estate market.
▲ 2017 is the peak of real estate growth, and this "increment" will gradually fall in the future.
The basis for this inflection point is that China's total population is decreasing, and even in another 40 years, Chinese will no longer have the demographic dividend of the past 400 million to 1.4 billion. The ceiling of the Chinese is about 1.4 billion, and the future population is likely to be surpassed by India.
▲ It is only a matter of time before India surpasses China.
Through the change of population, we can see that the future development trend of real estate is gradually shrinking incrementally and entering the era of stock. What Huang Qifan did not say is that the house will return to the essence of residential value, and the script of hoarding houses and speculating on houses to get rich in the future will never appear again. Buying a house, the value of the long-term property will become lower.
The second is the urbanization rate, China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, equivalent to the level of 75% in Europe and the United States, even if it is increased, it will increase by 5% to 6%. This rate of urbanization has absorbed the population of rural areas into the cities.
Through this urbanization rate, what Huang Qifan did not say is that the future urban new areas will become more and more difficult to develop, and there will be no more incentive to develop urban new areas. The new area of the planning is beautiful, and there is no population introduction, which is a castle in the air.
▲ A city cannot support so many new urban areas.
Finally, the scene of land prices quadrupling in 20 years will no longer appear, and the reason why developers are highly indebted, aggressively take land to expand, and raise the debt ratio to more than 90%, is to gamble on the rise in house prices. As house prices rise, there will always be an incentive to buy a house, so developers never worry about inventory, worry about debt.
Now, this market is gone, and the increment in the market is shrinking. At this time, the expansion of high debt is a very dangerous thing. Destocking is back to the mainstream consensus in the real estate industry. This is also known as "reducing the balance sheet" and "clearing out".
Now the difficulty of real estate, many people say that the government regulation is too much, and some people say that the developers themselves die, but Huang Qifan believes that it is not. Because of the same situation, in 2005 and 2010, the policy was also very strict, and the developers at that time were equally highly indebted and leveraged, but there were very few bankrupt housing enterprises at that time.
Why? The reason is that the whole general trend of the industry has changed.
And Mingge believes that what Huang Qifan did not say is that in the future, housing enterprises will no longer be the scale of land storage, but more of sales capacity and profit growth. Selling a piece of land and then taking a new piece of land will become the mainstream development idea, and developers who have stable cash flow are the ones who live well.
Therefore, whether it is the announcement of the five ministries and commissions or Huang Qifan's speech, it is telling you a truth:
No matter how the current policy changes, the property market will never return to the past, and the industry has entered an inflection point. In the long run, the total amount of real estate will gradually shrink, and developers will continue to decrease. It is no longer possible to make money by buying a house in the future.
Write at the end
Remember that MingGe once wrote about the "law of two and eight" in the property market:
Only 20% of China's cities are suitable for buying a house and are suitable for holding a property. 80% of urban houses do not have much holding value, and there is no need to hold more than one set except for self-occupation.
In a city, only 20% of the assets can achieve appreciation and preservation, and the remaining 80% of the houses cannot increase in value and preserve value.
Among all the buyers, only 20% of them can achieve asset appreciation and preservation, and the remaining 80% of the population is either a loss, or at most it is a flat capital.
Today, this law is gradually becoming a reality.