Opening review
It's another red-hot day, and the index is too violent these two days!
The broader market rose as high as 6.5% in two days and the ChiNext board rose 9.3%.
You know, this is an index, the index is rising like this, then most of the votes are low up to more than 10 points.
Last night, China continued to soar, Fangduoduo once soared by 100%, shells rose by more than 60%, Didi, Pinduoduo, iQiyi and so on exceeded 40%...
This directly stimulated the opening of Hong Kong stocks today, that is, opened 6% higher, too strong!
While the Fed was not aggressive last night (a 25 basis point rate hike), the Nasdaq surged 3.77%, the largest one-day gain since November 2020.
In fact, we have also said that the short-term impact of the interest rate hike event has not been large, and the market's performance yesterday is the attitude.
Due to last night's favorable superposition today's Hong Kong stocks opened sharply higher by 6%, directly let the A shares also open sharply higher.
Last night, Zhili prejudged the chart, and predicted that there was a slightly longer oscillating small red K line on the upper shadow line:
From the perspective of the final K-line pattern, under the favorable stimulus, the center of gravity of the large-cap K-line has shifted upwards today, but the pattern is basically the same, and it is still a slightly longer oscillation of the upper shadow line!
The overall trend was stronger than we expected, and today directly filled the gap of the day before yesterday, and at the same time created a new upward gap.
From the perspective of the characteristics of the bottom of the market, the main force does not have the momentum to continuously pull up, and this gap will most likely be filled again, and the time may be in these two days.
From yesterday's low point of 3023 to today's high point of 3260, 2 days up 237 points, according to this rise, 5000 is not a dream at all. Don't be carried away by short-term surges.
History repeats itself, but not simply.
Looking back now, from the end of 2018 to the beginning of 2019, it was also Vice Premier Liu He's speech, when there was also a two consecutive days of sharp rise:
The figure shows two distinct mid-to-large Yang lines.
The timing of the formation of the policy bottom is after a sharp decline. The construction of the market bottom has gone through 3 or 4 months, and the good days have come.
These two points are actually very close, but the time span is relatively large, and then a vigorous small bull market in 2019 has come.
Tomorrow is a preview
The prejudgment logic and reasons are as follows:
1, the market today rushed up and fell back obviously, the bulls have insufficient power, just two days after the sharp rise of 237 points, the profit plate has been very sufficient. Under the current breakout market, the rebound is not a reversal, and the probability of directly V going up is very small.
2, the market sentiment has been overheated for two consecutive days, which is also a very rare signal, and the pressure has begun to appear.
3, the Shanghai index side of the rise can be compared to yesterday's contraction, the large weight intentionally shrink the front line, control the rhythm. The most typical is the brokerage, after yesterday's sector rose 6%, today's decline is within -1%.
In summary, Zhili believes that starting tomorrow, the market will face digestion and adjustment pressure, and the primary goal is to make up for today's gap downwards and see an adjustment yin K line! The prejudgment diagram is shown in the figure above!
Specifically, let's look at the point strategy:
Daily pre-judgment chart, combined with the zhili point system, the best correction effect! In the simplest way, teach everyone to unwind and look at stocks! The support level buys the pressure level to sell, and the low suction lurks to bloom. Don't wait until you're up every time you get up to buy it.
To make a good operation plan for everyone in advance is to use the simplest and clearest way to avoid our usual blind pursuit of the rise and fall. According to the trading plan, calmly deal with the rise and fall of the disk, as long as the discipline is enforced, you can cross the bull and bear!
Mainline logic
1. Technology stocks. Today, the photoresist plate once soared, Rongta photosensitive 20cm up and down, Tongcheng new materials, Jianghua micro up and down. The direct trigger was a magnitude 7.3 earthquake in Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. The earthquake may exacerbate the tight supply of automotive chips and semiconductor materials, and the direction of domestic chips and accelerated substitution of materials is positive.
Shin-etsu Chemical, the global photoresist leader, occupies more than 20% of the world's supply, and last year's Fukushima earthquake affected Shin-etsu Chemical.
Shin-etsu is also the global leader in silicon wafer suppliers, with SUMCO accounting for more than 40% of the world's supply, and there is also a production plant in Fukushima, and the power outage will affect the wafer yield, thereby affecting the supply and driving price increase expectations.
Recently, a number of companies in the semiconductor sector have also disclosed their business performance in January and February, of which the revenue growth rate of Companies such as North Huachuang, Huafeng Measurement and Control, and Zhichun Technology in January and February exceeded 100% year-on-year. This also confirms the high prosperity of the industry again, and then you can pay attention to the low suction opportunities in this direction!
2. Real estate changes. Today, the real estate sector has set off a rising tide, special service, World Union Bank, I love my home up and down. On the news, the Ministry of Finance: this year does not have the conditions to expand the real estate tax reform pilot cities!
The real estate tax was publicly released in April last year, and in October a notice was issued to carry out a pilot project, and now it will not be expanded for the time being. This is undoubtedly good news for the real estate sector, which is still in the cold winter, and the real estate sector has therefore gone up across the board.
Affected by the relaxation of real estate policies, the home furnishing sector rose in the front today, with Sophia, Mengtian Home, Qumei Home and so on performing well. With the warm wind direction of real estate policy, the market also has the expectation of a certain dilemma reversal for the home furnishing industry.
3. Lithium battery. Today's track stocks continue to rise, the Highest Impact of the Ningde Era has hit 6%, the energy vehicle high growth space superimposed energy storage market has erupted, and the power battery company has continued to expand and brought a surge in orders to lithium battery equipment companies, releasing a large number of lithium battery equipment procurement demand.
In 2021, the power battery investment and expansion project is about 600 billion yuan. Among them, Ningde times, BYD, Yiwei lithium energy, hive energy, Fu Neng technology and other battery companies for the expansion of the head, only the Ningde era released more than 11.4 billion yuan of orders, the data is very eye-catching!
Therefore, lithium batteries are still the longest logical sector in the current market, and some stocks have taken the lead in entering a reasonable valuation area after the sharp fall, and you can pay attention to low-absorption opportunities.
4. The securities industry is happy to mention the "targeted reduction of the RRR", and China Settlement has released nearly 40 billion yuan for securities companies in one fell swoop! After the special meeting of the Financial Commission, China Settlement Company latest announced that it would lower the minimum settlement reserve payment ratio to 16%, and securities companies ushered in a favorable "first type" and the "RRR reduction" of securities companies.
Multiple positives are released one after another. On the same day, the Shanghai Stock Exchange decided to waive the 2022 listing preliminary fee and annual listing fee for listed companies in areas recently affected by the epidemic, and at the same time waive the online voting service fee for the 2022 shareholders' meeting of listed companies in recently affected areas affected by the epidemic.
In short, after this sharp fall, the management's intention to care for the market has become more and more obvious.
This is a collection of recent views on JPMorgan Chase, which is ironic, and it is faster than retail investors.
Investing, in essence, is still to learn to think independently, not to mythologize the ability of institutions, but also to have their own choices.
Everything we have in A shares is experience, now it is an accident, and the back is a story. Right and wrong are used to make money, and more experience will understand.
Don't forget the original heart, stick to the bottom, embrace the new market, cheer together, love you ~!
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Disclaimer: The analysis of individual stocks and markets in this article is only for personal sharing and communication, and does not constitute a basis for trading, the stock market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious!