There are many kinds of transactions in the investment field, among which the gold in precious metals has attracted more and more traders with its active fluctuations, large volatility and many other characteristics, and after contact, it has been found that the greater the return means that the greater the risk, the fluctuation is indeed foreign exchange and other products can not be compared, but it is not a very easy thing to do well, today on the gold trading need to pay attention to several major elements of exchange.
Before choosing a trading product, the first thing we have to do is to understand the characteristics of the variety, which is the first condition, blindly trading before not familiar with the properties of the product, often encounter embarrassment and cause losses, just like planting seedlings that were once desired on an unfamiliar land, in the arid and barren land of the north to harvest fruitful citrus, is not it very whimsical? Trading is the same reason, do not rush to think about how much to harvest, you must first understand the properties of the trading variety.
First, first look at the gold attributes, from the attribute point of view, gold has the following attributes, 1, commodity, this is similar to the Australian dollar, Canadian dollar, crude oil, etc., when the market fundamentals are calm, that is to say, when there is no risk factor, gold often reflects its natural commodity, 2, risk aversion, and the dollar, yen, Swiss franc, etc. the same have hedging attributes, whenever geopolitical risks, natural events of force majeure, local regional instability factors, etc., gold reflects its hedging, Most will push their prices up. When the risk abates, the price will fall back to a certain extent. 3, anti-inflation, when there is high inflation in the market, gold can be used as an anti-inflation product for reserves, which can be combined with the second point.
When fundamental factors appear, we often mention: what is the theoretical impact on the trend, why say so, because in many cases is not completely positive correlation, such as on the surface there is a certain demand for hedging, but at this time as one of the hedging varieties of gold, there is no as expected rise, not to say that at this time there is no hedging, it is the hedging factor coexists with other elements, not affected by a single impact, so for traders who pay too much attention to the attributes of gold, there is no need to be too demanding, too single treatment.
Second, there are a few elements that are affected by the fundamentals:
Focus on several clues: 1, fed interest rate decision, 2, Fed chairman and important officials speeches, 3, geopolitical risks, 4, important economic data, 5, inflation factors.
Often involved in gold trading know that every time the Fed issues an interest rate decision, it will pay close attention to, in many cases after the release of the decision will cause greater fluctuations in the market, usually, the Fed to take the interest rate hike policy will be more favorable to the dollar, and then cause pressure on gold, the Fed decided to cut interest rates to the policy of short dollars, on the contrary, it constitutes a positive factor for gold, of course, this is in accordance with the conventional, in fact, we will occasionally see situations that do not match the facts, such as the announcement of interest rate hikes, gold is very volatile, The influence is very small, and even the direction is inconsistent, this situation is likely to have been digested by the market before, there is a result of "buying news, selling facts", so don't over-base it.
The principle is the same, here you can use other currency cases, more classic is that the European Central Bank previously cut the deposit rate by 10 basis points to minus 0.3% on December 3, 2015, theoretically forming a bearish factor for the euro, but from the trend we can see that the euro only fell slightly after the rapid rebound, followed by a mid-line level of the rising market,
The above figure is the euro daily chart, after the release of the news, the opposite of the expectation is out of the Big Yang line, once made many blindly based on a single fundamental information short traders confused, the reason is that on the one hand, before the EcB issued the interest rate decision, the market has expected the ECB to implement negative interest rate decisions, after rendering, the outside world has basically digested this fact, so the "buy news, sell facts" effect, in the trend is manifested as the default facts after the market change.
Imagine if the ECB's interest rate decision does not implement negative interest rates as expected by the outside world, then the psychological reaction to investors must be disappointed, and the trend will also be reflected in a very different result from expectations. Therefore, most of the expected movements are a market that has been digested and accepted by the market in advance and is about to become a fact. This is true of the euro, and there will also be such an exception for gold, so there is no need to make a fuss about a very different trend after the decision is issued.
2, the Fed's policy trends in many cases through the Fed Chairman and important officials of the speech response, such as this Tuesday evening Fed Chairman Powell after a speech, once triggered an accelerated rise in gold, Powell said at the re-election hearing that the post-epidemic period of the economy may be different from the previous economic expansion, the Fed to achieve economic goals need to take into account these differences, monetary policy must have a broad and forward-looking perspective, with the changing economy to keep pace, interest rate hikes and balance sheet reduction after the opening, U.S. monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, not excessively tight that caused a recession, and maximizing employment requires price stability while interest rates do not rise to the point where they hinder economic recovery. The market reaction Powell's speech was less than expected hawkish, the dollar was suppressed, and gold and non-US were sought after.
3, geopolitical risk factors: whenever there is a risk event in the market, gold's risk aversion will be reflected, such as the previous political turmoil in Syria, the 2011 Japanese tsunami, etc., which have generated market risk worries and promoted the rise of gold.
4, important economic data, every day will see the data of the upper aspects of the economic calendar, the influence is light and heavy, do not have to receive all, for gold, the influence is mainly from some data released by the United States, such as the United States non-farm payrolls report, the number of unemployment claims in the week, inflation data, retail sales data, in general, such data and gold are basically negatively correlated, that is, the data is good for the dollar, bearish for gold, on the contrary, the data is bearish, bullish dollar, bearish gold. Of course, it is also necessary to treat it comprehensively in combination with other factors.
5, inflation factors, gold because of the anti-inflation function, so when the market deviates from the normal high inflation, gold will also be sought after, with gold to resist inflation, and spot gold on the transaction will naturally be boosted. For example, when the inflation data released in the market is high, it constitutes a positive factor for gold, especially the inflation data released by the United States is more obvious.
Third, in addition to the above factors, it is also necessary to understand the characteristics of gold in the technical aspect:
In the same case, the fluctuations of gold are relatively active, the volatility is larger, and many people often hear many people complain about the small volatility of other currencies, especially like the United States and Japan, the Australian dollar, The United States and Switzerland, etc., too calm, and the volatility of the day is small, the determination to pursue profit margins prompts many investors to choose gold, of course, this is an advantage, but there is also a certain risk, is not there such a statement, the risk and profit are positively correlated, we pursue greater profit space is beyond reproach, but also always be vigilant against the high risk behind the high return, Especially novices may not be able to control the distinctive investment of gold, and it is also possible to start with a relatively stable trading product at the beginning.
Fourth: the varieties that can be learned from it: trading gold can be relatively referred to the trend of the US dollar, the euro, the United States and Japan, crude oil, etc., which is negatively correlated with the trend of the US dollar, and most of the positive correlation with the euro, but it is not absolute, because gold is relatively complex after all, it will be affected by multiple factors, while other varieties are relatively single, so there will also be deviations.
The above is the gold 4H chart, after the Fed chairman's speech on Tuesday night, although it emphasized the need to resist high inflation and adopt a rate hike policy in the future, the tone was less than expected, and gold was affected to continue to rise, which is also a reflection of fundamental factors. So how does the euro perform?
The above figure is the euro 4H chart, it is clear that after the slight decline in the euro, even through the technical side, it can be seen that the support before the retracement has not broken the medium-term moving average to continue to rise, and the fundamentals are also affected by the speech of The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, after the speech that disappointed the market, the dollar was sold off, and the euro was boosted to continue to hit a new intraday high. In this trend, it is basically synchronized with gold. Generally speaking, most of the information released by the Fed is in the same direction, which can be cross-referenced.
Some traders think that gold and the United States and Japan are positively correlated, in fact, through the trend can see, the two can be learned from the overall, but from the short-term trend point of view, the correlation is not very obvious, crude oil, because of the commodity, so sometimes similar to gold, but when gold reflects the risk aversion, the two will be very different, this is to pay attention to.
In general, gold due to multiple attributes, coupled with a variety of factors affected, belongs to the volatility of active varieties, activity and increase its risk, so it is not recommended that the first market traders choose the variety, in the slow understanding of gold characteristics can gradually contact, on the other hand, even if it is a veteran, should also be a reasonable layout of the position, can not be too much in order to pursue profits, increase the risk of the position, the transaction needs to be thin water and long flow, want to speed is not reached, I wish you a happy weekend, see you again next time!