On the first day of Russia's three-week "special military operation" against Ukraine, Russian forces took over the Chernobyl nuclear facility, one of the world's worst nuclear accidents.
Just over a week later, Europe's largest nuclear power plant, the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant, was also attacked and taken over by Russian forces.
Shelling of some of these facilities led to a fire, but there were no reports of increased radiation. Meanwhile, the Chernobyl nuclear facility near the Belarusian border has seen early reports of a surge in radiation as heavy military equipment has stirred up contaminated soil near the facility.
The attacks sparked widespread panic. The IAEA expressed "grave concern" about the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities and warned that violations of the basic principles of the safe operation of such facilities had occurred within the two occupied nuclear facilities.
And, at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin is warning of an imminent nuclear disaster, people across Europe who still remember the 1986 Chernobyl accident are buying iodine tablets to take under exposure to radiation.
On March 10 this year, IAEA Director General Grossi flew to the Turkish city of Antalya to meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba. Grossi proposed a "framework for ensuring the safety of Ukraine's nuclear facilities," but it is unclear whether the two sides agreed on the issue of the framework.
Nuclear experts say a nuclear accident of the magnitude of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster is unlikely, but they warn that a war in Ukraine would indeed pose a threat to its nuclear facilities.
"Nuclear facilities are in serious danger"
Ukraine has a well-developed nuclear energy infrastructure and is the 7th largest producer of nuclear energy in the world. Nearly 55% of the country's electricity comes from nuclear power and is produced by 4 nuclear power plants.
The country's fifth nuclear power plant is the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, whose last reactor was shut down in 2000. However, the decommissioned nuclear power plant still needs routine maintenance because some safety systems still exist in it and waste fuel is still stored in it.
When the plant was occupied on Feb. 24, a team of about 211 staff and guards was unable to leave or be replaced by other staff, which could weaken their ability to operate the plant safely.
The plant's power supply was also cut off on March 9, forcing staff to switch to diesel generators until engineers reconnected the plant to the grid on March 14. The IAEA also reported on March 9 that it had lost contact with the Chernobyl nuclear material monitoring system.
The IAEA has also expressed concern about the operating conditions of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in southern Ukraine, whose staff cannot also be rotated in accordance with the provisions of safety procedures. The agency's direct connection to the field observing system has also been cut off, although it has said in recent days it is still able to receive data. The agency also reported that Russian troops had detonated unexploded ordnance found at the scene of the March 4 bombardment.
Nikolai Sokov, a senior researcher at the Vienna Centre for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation, said that the fact that so far no major accidents had occurred in the two occupied sites showed that both sides were very cautious and cautious, but the possibility of a nuclear accident could not be ruled out.
"Nuclear energy facilities are designed for peacetime," he said. This is the first time we have seen a major war in a country with a large number of such facilities. This is a unique situation, and no one is prepared for it. ”
Could a nuclear accident happen?
Although safety standards for the construction of nuclear power plants are high to prevent possible disasters, there are still some loopholes.
There are no normally functioning reactors at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, and the reactor that exploded in 1986 has been buried in a reinforced concrete sarcophagus. However, the base still poses a threat to its surrounding environment.
According to Professor Alison McFarland, Director of the School of Public Policy and Global Affairs at the University of British Columbia, leakage of radioactive material can be caused if there is staff fatigue, insufficient power or a failure of the cooling system, or if the fuel storage facility is damaged or misoperated.
McFarland noted that such an accident would have a more localized impact than spread radiation to vast areas near Ukraine, as the 1986 disaster did.
However, fierce fighting during the war could cause more serious accidents at the four operating nuclear power plants.
The nuclear reactors currently operating in Ukraine have solid concrete and steel structures designed to contain radiation and withstand external pressure. Georg Kaskiyev, a nuclear physicist and former chairman of the Bulgarian Commission on the Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy, said the reactor's shell could withstand ordinary explosions, but not last longer.
"The main threat, he noted, is that missile bombardment could disrupt critical systems at nuclear facilities." "These devices could be the power source for a nuclear power plant, or they could be equipment that helps operate the reactor." Kaskiyev warned that if the cooling system of a nuclear power plant fails, it can also have very serious consequences.
In his view, even if the Russian military leadership understands these risks and takes precautions, ground forces may still make some dangerous military operations that could damage nuclear facilities, as in July 2014, a civilian aircraft was shot down by a missile in the pro-Russian separatist-controlled eastern part of Ukraine, while investigators and prosecutors discovered that it was a Russian-made surface-to-air missile.
Both Kaskiyev and Sokov said a nuclear disaster of the scale of Chernobyl, which affected much of Europe, was highly unlikely to occur at Ukraine's currently operating nuclear power plants. Kaschiev noted that the scale of radioactive fallout will depend on the ability of local staff and authorities to implement safety procedures to control radiation.
In McFarlane's view, there is little possibility of an unpredictable war to rule out, and she expects Russia to continue to target Ukraine's nuclear facilities.
She also said, "Since these nuclear facilities provide Ukraine with more than 50 percent of its electricity, I think they are very attractive targets for Russians because they want to control the country's electricity supply." ”