Recently, a monotonous video with profound content has exploded throughout the Internet.
Just chat with the two old men. Time, morning. Location, corner of a tall building. Chatting and chatting, the two old men left their seats, leaving two empty chairs and empty cups, which connected to the content of the conversation, which made people feel unfinished and thoughtless.
In fact, the topic is very common: the real estate situation. And the people who talk are not simple: Wang Boming, editor-in-chief of Caijing magazine, and Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing. Editor-in-Chief Wang called "Qi Fan" directly, and it seemed to be an old friend. Old friends plus old topics, it is easy to talk about some real materials.
The column is called "Talk about a wave", and sure enough, the flood wave rises and the aftermath is endless. Only because Mayor Huang said that the sky-breaking opportunity: China's real estate has reached its peak, there have been ten inflection points, and Chinese housing enterprises will be reduced by nearly 90% in the future.
One inflection point, already nervous, there are still ten, how is this good?
As the "mayor who understands the economy best", Mr. Huang Qifan has a brain with great memory and extremely fast computing power. The owner of the church had the honor of visiting the scene of one of his speeches, and the number of precious data greatly inspired the audience, including many real estate practitioners.
Twenty years later, we are once again witnessing his data processing power. But this time, on the contrary, the data points exactly to the same location: a new inflection point for China's real estate industry. He listed ten major indicators, and the iron data was told.
First of all, China's 1.4 billion people will not rise by 400 million to 1.8 billion in 40 years, and everyone basically thinks that 1.4 billion people is the ceiling, in short, the population is decreasing.
Second, China's urbanization rate has reached 65%, China's 65% is equivalent to 75% in Europe and the United States, and then the growth will increase by 5 or 6 points.
Third, China's aging is deepening, last year has reached 21%, it is expected to reach more than 30% in 2035, the more elderly people, the less houses are needed, but the mortality rate is increasing, and many houses will be withdrawn.
Fourth, as of last year, 600 million square meters of houses that had not been sold for more than a year had been built. The houses bought by the Chinese people are used for investment, and there are no houses or rentals, 20%. If house prices do not rise, this inventory is a backlog, which will cause the demand for new houses to shrink significantly.
Fifth, the per capita housing area in China's cities has reached 50 square meters after 2000, and the per capita per capita ceiling of 50 in developed countries around the world is the ceiling.
Sixth, the annual real estate construction volume, 100 million square meters in 2000, 1 billion in 2010, 1.7 billion in 2016, 2017, quadrupled in 20 years, 1.7 billion what is the concept? China makes half of the world! You have had this demand in the past 30 years, expanded to 50 square meters per capita and built it like this, you want to bubble demand can not be bubbled.
Seventh, Land prices and property prices in China have quadrupled in 20 years. When the local price has a trend of quadrupling in 20 years, all real estate developers will hoard and speculate, and everyone is not afraid of inventory and desperately raises loans. This law is the 7 indicators mentioned earlier, 20 years of such a hotbed to pet out, to the habit out.
Eighth, the transformation of dangerous old houses and the transformation of old cities, large-scale transformation of old cities are almost the same, there is no need for this. Ninth, the construction of schools and hospitals in the city has also come to an end.
Tenth, the debt ratio of Chinese real estate developers has reached a ceiling of 90%, and it will not become 105% in 10 years.
All in all, from the population base, real estate demand, stock size, to public facilities, old city transformation, debt capacity, ten major indicators, knife and knife fatal - the more you take the road and run wildly, the more you will lose too much blood. The real estate growth curve will turn downward from then on.
When real estate is no longer on its head, all of us, perhaps, will be a little uncomfortable. But compared to the case of brake failure, it is estimated that people welcome these well-intentioned reminders.
There are two kinds of people, a bit annoying, but very important.
One is the whistleblower on the pitch, and the other is the old driver on the road. If it is said that the stunned qing who only hits the throttle is a muddy ball, the old driver who steps on the brakes from time to time is a wise man.
It is reasonable to say that after thirty years of rapid development of the industry, these old real estate drivers should know the pleasure of restraint, but there are more than half a hundred leaders who think that they are not old Schumacher. Every fatal conceit comes at a terrible cost.
According to the data given by Mr. Huang Qifan, China's real estate industry, which supports self-respect, has actually fallen into a historical circle of left-right competition, that is, the growing stock and the still huge increment are robbing the shrinking market.
600 million square meters of unsold inventory, 20% of vacant houses for sale, together constitute a vast stock market, like a black hole devouring the limited purchasing power of this uneasy era.
Data show that more and more buyers tend to buy new homes. One is to see is to be true, personal inspection is safe, of course, this is due to the generous singers such as Evergrande; the second is a large number of new houses, location, environment, supporting facilities are often better than pre-sale houses, similar products, the price is even lower, and the latter is only a piece higher in momentum and self-feeling.
What is interesting is that many pre-sale new houses are reducing their price and squeezing into second-hand stores, and the second new houses born two years earlier are on the shelves at the same time.
Yesterday, the owner of the church had the honor to see on the shell clerk's computer that the system listed as many as 205196 sets of second-hand houses in Chongqing, plus the second-hand houses of mainstream intermediaries such as homecoming and 21st century, even if the repeated listing factors are deducted, there are 250,000 sets. Properly ranked first in the country.
Another data is that chongqing has 143747 sets of second-hand housing transactions throughout the year. In this way, the cumulative number of second-hand houses listed throughout the year is even more amazing.
In contrast, in the new housing market, according to the data of Kerry Chongqing Institution, a total of 214,100 sets of commercial housing in the main urban area of Chongqing will be traded in 2021, and its dematerialization cycle will climb to 6.6 months.
The natural law of selling the old and buying the new will not change, but the channels and paths for the transformation of the old and the new will change. If the second-hand house (especially the sub-new house) has a larger choice, higher cost performance and higher credibility, is this a kind of anti-devouring for developers?
At present, the problems and contradictions are not prominent, but they are already emerging. If the amount of development is not compressed, this phenomenon of left-right mutual competition will inevitably become more prominent. The heads with high turnover will one day find that what they are unfortunate to step on is the thunder they have planted.
It is worth noting that last year, chongqing and the whole country, the supply fell rarely, and even the transaction volume was higher than the supply.
Maybe I was frightened by the thunder, maybe I really couldn't get up the "three highs". In any case, knowing restraint is a kind of maturity and progress. When Mayor Huang prescribed restructuring medicines for high-debt housing enterprises in pain, I didn't know what the bosses who were taking medicine and were going to take medicine thought.
Mayor Huang said that it is no wonder that the government, nor the enterprises themselves, this is due to the law, the stage is so. The next Chinese real estate industry will usher in a new virtuous circle. Luckily, even!
Steady progress must be the new normal that everyone is happy to see. But the normal is new, the bosses and real estate people in the normal, will the mentality be new?
In the experience of having to be painful every once in a while, they will feel that this time is still a normal physiological phenomenon, is it better to be stable?
After countless inflection point theories, will they still believe that this time, has the wolf really come?
Will they still sell and sell "as I am"?
In Chinese, there are three meanings of abduction, one is deception, the second is turning, and the third is lame (Chongqing dialect, "turned", or "bad"). For all housing enterprises and real estate people, how to turn down needs to be answered at the same time in these two meanings. This is precisely what the new normal should mean.
Before the inflection point came, didn't all the real estate people, like the iron abductor Li, carry a gourd of "magical" plaster, limping towards the future? When they stroked the past and patted the railing and thighs all over, only a soak of urine kung fu, the glorious years slipped out of the old distance.
It's hard for you, friend. If one day, I ran the Bentley and came to the iron crutch, I would have to go all the way down. Believe that time will heal everything, including your injured legs, stomach, and your heart.
Hey, since the beginning of the year, the owner of the church has picked out three hot words of blacksmith, iron chain, and iron crutch, and chatted with everyone. Don't be ashamed to pick up people's teeth.
My friends, of course, will not be the old mayor, but must be the old drivers and old citizens.
I wish you all a good mind and good health.
Text/Lord of Jinfeng Hall
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