Source: Global Times
The most convenient air lifeline has been cut off
The "International Peacekeeping and Security Center", a military training base located in the city of Yavorov, Lviv Oblast, Ukraine, was attacked by Russian missiles on the 13th. Western media reports and photos have confirmed that Russian missiles not only caused a large number of casualties among "foreign volunteers", but also destroyed many batches of Western arms aid to Ukraine. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov has previously issued a warning that the Russian military will legally strike convoys shipping foreign weapons to Ukraine, which means that the passage space for the West to deliver weapons to Ukraine has been further compressed.
As far as the current war situation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is concerned, the two sides have fallen into street battles in many cities, and the consumption of weapons and ammunition has increased significantly. Due to the lack of an autonomous defense industry, the Ukrainian army's demand for Western weapons and equipment has become increasingly large and urgent. To expedite the delivery of weapons to Ukraine, the U.S. European Command has established a special coordination group to manage the delivery of weapons and equipment from the United States and at least 14 other countries, including the United Kingdom, Canada and Lithuania.
Before the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Western-aided military supplies could be easily and directly airlifted directly by large transport aircraft to Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and then by land or air to front-line troops. However, after the Russian military basically grasped the air supremacy of Ukraine, the way in which Western countries directly transported weapons to Ukraine by air has become completely impossible, and the cargo planes transporting weapons and equipment are in danger of being shot down, and the West does not dare to risk a direct military conflict with Russia and send fighter jets to escort these cargo planes.
At present, the material of Western aid is mainly trans-shipment in Poland. CNN revealed that an "undisclosed location" airport in Poland near the Ukrainian border has become a transportation hub for the West to transport weapons and equipment to Ukraine, and about 17 sorties of Western military transport aircraft arrive here every day to unload weapons and equipment provided by Western countries.
Although the US media did not disclose the specific location of the airport, from the analysis of the common practice of Western countries, in order to ensure absolute safety, the transit hub will not be too close to the Border Region of Ukraine and should be protected by priority. The southeastern Polish city of Rzeszów, which currently has the U.S. Patriot-3 anti-missile system deployed and is moderately close to the Ukrainian border, should be the best location to act as a transit hub.
Upon arrival in Poland, these Western supplies will be transported by truck into Ukraine. Because of the extreme dangers of delivering weapons to Ukraine, truck drivers earn as much as $1,500 a day. Lviv is close to the Polish border and was the first stop for Western supplies to reach Ukraine. According to Western media reports, the "International Peacekeeping and Security Center" is only 25 kilometers from the Polish border, where NATO had previously trained Ukrainian troops. Before the Russian attack, there were about 1,000 "foreign volunteers" stationed in the local area to assist the Ukrainians in the war, and it was also the main logistics center of Ukraine, which was used to transport Western equipment and ammunition for reinforcing the Ukrainian army. According to the Russian report, in the missile attack on the base on the 13th, "as many as 180 foreign mercenaries and a large number of foreign weapons were destroyed."
In response to the attack on Ukraine's "Center for International Peacekeeping and Security," Pentagon spokesman Kirby declared at a press conference: "I can only tell you that we have multiple channels to get military aid to Ukraine, and [the attacked base] is not one of them." ”
Land transport is becoming increasingly difficult
In order to prevent the escalation of the war, especially the direct military confrontation with NATO, Russian military operations are strictly limited to Ukraine, and the smoke of war has not yet extended beyond Ukraine. Judging from the weapons delivery routes of Western countries, the land road from Poland to Ukraine is relatively smooth, and there is no sign of Russian attack. But once weapons and equipment enter Ukraine, it will become increasingly difficult to distribute them to the front-line battlefield. In particular, the Russian army's strike on the military training base in Yavorov City, Lviv Oblast, as well as the warning issued by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Ryabkov, indicate that the Russian army is ready to cut off the weapons delivery route in Ukraine.
Judging from the current war situation in the Russian-Ukrainian battlefield, the Offensive Operations of the Russian Army are still advancing in four operational directions, namely, the Northern, Northeastern, Southeast and Southern Fronts. The direction of operations on the northern front is directly taking Kiev, and the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, has formed a semi-encirclement trend; the direction of operations on the northeast front is glued, and the fighting in Kharkiv and Samui is still fierce; the direction of operations on the southeast front is mainly to contain the Ukrainian heavy army group, and Mariupol has entered the street battle; the target of the southern front is Kherson Oblast, the Russian army seems to have taken it, and the next step may be to launch a joint land-sea attack on Odessa. In the face of the heavy armor group of the Russian army, the Ukrainian army has a relatively large demand for anti-tank weapons.
On the map, Ukraine's domestic transport infrastructure is not backward, and the road network is in all directions. The northern highway from lviv in the western Ukrainian city of Kiev includes the highway via Lutsk-Rivni-Zhytomyr-Kiev; from Lviv to the east via Vinnitsa-Kirovgrad radiates to the east, southeast and south, and Kirovgrad is an important transportation hub. Previously, the Russian army did not attack the convoys of weapons delivered by Western countries to The territory of Ukraine in Ukraine, on the one hand, it may be that the war in other operational directions is tight, and the Russian army has no time to take care of the deep areas in Ukraine, on the other hand, it may also be because the Russian Air and Space Force has not yet fully grasped the air superiority and is difficult to carry out comprehensive battlefield reconnaissance and surveillance, so that the Ukrainian convoy can take advantage of the opportunity to continuously transport the weapons and equipment aided by the West to the front-line combat areas.
However, as the war in many cities is in a state of stalemate, it is becoming more and more important for the Russian army to completely cut off the source channel of Ukrainian weapons, and it is expected that the next step of transporting western countries to assist weapons and equipment will be the focus of the Russian army's attack. Although the Russian army will not attack the Western weapons transit point in Poland, after the convoy enters the territory of Ukraine, especially in the process of moving to the front-line combat area through the deep area of Ukraine, it will be "natural" for the Russian army to carry out strike operations. With the gradual grasp of air supremacy by the Russian Air Force and the increase in the number of combat missions carried out by fighters, it is expected that such ground attack tasks will be the focus. Convoys transporting Aid weapons and equipment from Western countries cannot identify themselves and can only suffer the consequences of being hit.
Of course, the Ukrainian side may take the way of fragmentation, reduce the number of convoys, improve the degree of concealment, reduce the visibility of targets, or perform transport tasks in the dark, take advantage of the characteristics of the road network in Ukraine, and take small roads and not large roads. However, this will bring about the problem of inefficient logistics support, and the weapons and equipment that can be transported to the front line may not meet the operational needs. In addition, despite the dense road network in Ukraine, in order to delay the efficiency of convoy transportation, the Russian army only needs to blow up the key traffic node roads and bridges, which may cut off the traffic "artery" and make the convoy unable to move forward. In short, although the weapons and equipment aided by the West will be able to enter the territory of Ukraine in the future, the difficulty of transporting them in Ukraine will become more and more difficult and unsustainable.
Romania is an important substitute line
At a time when it is becoming increasingly difficult to deliver weapons to Ukraine's borders, Western countries are also looking for new routes. From the geographical point of view, in addition to Poland, NATO countries also have Slovakia, Hungary and Romania bordering Ukraine.
At present, Hungary, fearing retaliation from Russia, has explicitly refused to act as a conduit for weapons delivery to Western countries. On the 15th local time, Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán stressed that Hungary will not send weapons to Ukraine, let alone participate in the Russo-Ukrainian War. Slovakia, on the other hand, has been slightly more aggressive in its involvement in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but geographically, its border situation with Ukraine is similar to that of Poland, and it is difficult to play a role in replacing the latter.
The geographical location of Romannesia is unique, it borders the western part of Ukraine and the Odessa Oblast in southern Ukraine, and if weapons are transported from the territory of the country, it can effectively avoid entering the depths of Ukraine and can directly send weapons to the Odessa Oblast in southern Ukraine. On the map, the eastern Romanian city of Galaţi is connected to the Odessa Oblast in southern Ukraine by a highway and has unique conditions. NATO also seems to be optimistic about this line. Previously, French military transport aircraft transported some weapons and equipment to the Mikhail-Kogelnicanu Air Base in Romania and transported them to Ukraine through the romanian passage.
But overall, parts of the transport route are built along the Black Sea coastline and there is a cross-sea bridge, and once the Russian Black Sea Fleet destroys the bridge, the entire route will be at risk of being interrupted. In addition, with the influx of Ukrainian refugees, the route may also be occupied by refugees and unable to be smooth.
In view of the serious dilemma that Western countries will face in sending weapons to Ukraine, Politicians in Western countries are "silent" on the issue of transmission routes. In an interview with British media, British defence official James Haypi said the delivery of weapons into Ukraine was "what we are doing" but "cannot specify exactly where, when and how". The Polish Defense Ministry stressed in a statement that "for obvious security reasons, we are unable to communicate the details".