The opening chapter first shared with you, in recent days, the most discussed thing in the pig industry, that is, The Golden Gong began to sell pig farms, although the overall pig breeding volume of Golden Gong has a big gap compared to Wen's, Makihara, Zhengbang, New Hope, but it is also one of the group pig farms, and the notice to sell pig farms immediately attracted widespread attention in the industry.
According to Li Junzhu, president of the Pig Industry Association, because listed pig companies and group companies are in losses and are heavily indebted, there are no less than 100 enterprises in the domestic breeding volume that intend to sell and transfer the pig industry in the near future, but there are almost no enterprises that have the intention of taking over because pig farms are facing huge financial pressure.
Author's opinion: In fact, this matter is good news for ordinary pig farmers, because the development of group pig farms in the past two years is too fast, and their breeding volume accounts for more and more of the total domestic breeding volume, and a large part of the increase in domestic pig production capacity is also these pig farms. If they want to sell, and no one takes over, there will inevitably be a large number of idle pig farms, domestic pig breeding will decline, then the relationship between pig supply and demand will change, and pig prices will naturally rise.
However, these are all afterwords, for the time being, the domestic pig production capacity is still at a high level, the latest data show that the domestic breeding sow inventory is still as high as more than 42 million heads, higher than the normal sow inventory. The number of pigs available for the barn is naturally not low, and now it is the off-season for pork consumption, so it is not difficult to understand that pig prices have been in a volatile downward trend since the beginning of mid-February.
Of course, there are other reasons for the decline in pig prices:
1. After the price of pigs fell, the price of fresh meat fell to the level of 12 yuan, and the price advantage of frozen meat was lost, forcing traders to accelerate the exit of frozen meat;
2. After the decline in the fresh sales rate of pork in slaughtering enterprises, it begins to be divided into warehouses, and the lower the storage cost for slaughtering enterprises, the better, and the intention of slaughtering enterprises to suppress prices and control costs is obvious;
3. Pig prices fell, feed prices rose, pig farmers lost more, and some pig farms eliminated sows;
4. The "double epidemic" has been repeated, the epidemic situation of pigs has increased the number of short-term pigs on the market, and the epidemic of people has affected the consumption of terminal pork.
In the past two days, pig prices have stabilized, and the downward area has a tendency to shrink, and on March 16, pig prices were mainly stable, and only Shaanxi, Chongqing and Sichuan were narrowly lowered in the three western-central regions. After adjustment, the price of pigs in the northeast basically fell below 6 yuan across the board; the eastern region is still maintained at more than 6 yuan, and the highest can reach 6.6 yuan; the central region is mostly maintained at 5.8-6 yuan; the western region is similar to the northeast region, and the lowest after breaking 6 has reached 5.3 yuan; the southern region as a pig sales area has a high price, and it remains above 6 yuan.
The pig price market has stabilized, so is the follow-up rising or falling? This is to analyze from the subsequent positive and negative factors.
Positive factors: 1, pork has fallen to about 10 yuan, although in the traditional consumption off-season, but pork price reduction is still conducive to the increase in consumption, especially the Qingming Festival and other festivals are approaching. 2. Two rounds of central reserve meat storage totaling 78,000 tons have been carried out before, but the pig-to-food ratio is still lower than 5:1, and it is expected to continue to be stored in the future. 3, pig farmers have serious losses, and the enthusiasm for pressing the fence is rising again. 4, pig prices fell to a low trough, many pig farms began to supplement gilts, reducing pig out of the pen.
Negative factors: 1, the status quo of excessive production capacity has not changed for the time being; 2, the epidemic situation has been repeated, students have suspended classes, and the consumption of pork in the catering industry and canteens has been affected.
Comprehensive consideration, although the number of bearish factors is not as good as the positive factors, but the negative factors on the pig price impact is significantly stronger, it is expected that in the next 1-2 months of pig prices will still fluctuate lower, northeast, southwest, northwest low price areas may fall to about 5-5.3 yuan, East China, North China, South China several high-priced areas will remain at the level of 5.5-6 yuan. After May, pig prices are expected to rise as the number of pigs available for slaughter declines, the number of sows eliminated and forced to market decreases, and pork consumption picks up.
This article was originally published in my public account "Tomorrow Pig Price Analysis", to see the pig disease, talk about pig prices can pay attention to the private message after contact to ask for contact information.