The property market has entered a stage of oversupply, so developers are generally facing huge sales pressure. For example, the data shows that the sales of the top 100 housing enterprises in the country in February were only 401.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 47.2%, which is enough to show how much sales pressure is currently facing housing enterprises. Developers must sell their houses to survive, so in the current context of huge sales pressure, more and more experts predict that the bankruptcy of housing enterprises will become a common phenomenon in the future. For example, long ago, economist Ma Guangyuan made a prediction on the property market, saying that 80% of the housing enterprises in the market will go bankrupt in the future. In the near future, the famous real estate expert Huang Qifan also made a similar prediction about the property market, but the prediction given by Huang Qifan is that the future housing enterprises will be reduced by 90%!
Two days ago, Huang Qifan said when participating in an interview program: "We have 90,000 real estate companies, and our developers are more than the world combined, but in fact, it is not so much, and there is 10,000 that is not enough, so in the next 10 years, the real estate development chamber of commerce will change from 90,000 to 10,000." It can be seen that in Huang Qifan's view, in the future, our real estate developers will have a significant reduction, and the bankruptcy of developers has become a major trend!
So now the question is, now that there are more and more experts in the market who feel that developers are bankrupt, will this become a reality? First of all, as far as the author is concerned, the author believes that there will indeed be a large number of bankrupt housing enterprises in the market in the future. This is mainly determined by the basic relationship of oversupply in the property market, and with the continuous decline of the birth rate, this oversupply situation will become more and more obvious, and the sales pressure of developers will only increase.
Data released by the Bureau of Statistics shows that of the 15 provinces that have published population data so far, 6 provinces have experienced negative growth in their resident population. Even in a populous province like Henan, the resident population fell by 580,000 last year, and the birth population fell below 800,000 for the first time in 44 years. Although a series of birth subsidy policies have appeared in the market now, it is actually difficult for these policies to change everyone's willingness to have children, especially in the context of education and medical problems that have not been solved, and the willingness to have children will only become lower and lower. This means that the demand for housing in the market will continue to decline, and the demand for housing will decrease, so who can the house in the hands of the developer sell to? It should be known that the current inventory of developers is actually very high, and the data shows that as of the end of November last year, the inventory of new houses in 100 cities across the country reached 521.1 million square meters, setting a new high since August 2016.
Originally, the demand for housing in the market is decreasing, and now the inventory of new houses has reached a new high, in this case, developers are likely to reduce prices in order to "survive". But the question is, even if the developer chooses to reduce the price of the promotion, but the house can really be sold? Maybe, but how much profit will the developer make after the price cut? If the profit is not high enough, even if you sell the house, you will still lose money in the end, or there is a risk of bankruptcy. From this perspective, Huang Qifan's prediction of the property market that "the number of housing enterprises will be reduced to 10,000 in the future" is likely to become a reality. In this trend, buyers must be cautious when buying a house, otherwise they will encounter a price reduction from the developer, and the loss of the house will be a small matter, and if the developer is bankrupt and the house is rotten, this is a big thing.