Disclaimer: The content of this article is only used as a personal investment review diary and a case study of Zen theory in the entanglement, the content is for reference only, the stocks mentioned in the article do not do any basis for trading, nor are they recommended stocks, free to buy and sell, loss and profit at their own risk, the stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious!
The author wrote on January 26 "the shanghai index firmly bearish to 3100 points of reasons", at that time many people did not believe, of course, whether it can come out, koi himself does not know, at that time only from the trend structure and indicator level to push down and argument, so as to draw relevant conclusions, in fact, every article of koi, at the beginning of the analysis, koi himself does not know, the final conclusion is how, so many conclusive article titles, are finally concluded, only determined, At that time, the article received a lot of "ridicule" and "doubt" in the case of more than 2,000 readings, but it was the conclusion of the judgment that the market came out through the actual trend, Koi's "Revisiting the Author's January 26 Article "Reasons for Firmly Bearish to 3100 Points on the Shanghai Composite Index", to more than 10,000 readings, many good people left a pertinent affirmation! But in the message area, there are a lot of 2800 points or even lower bearish remarks, here Koi does not want to deny their views, after all, no one in the stock market is absolutely right or wrong, everyone is in the "relative possibility to find relative certainty", the two "relative" in the above words make even if the conclusion is drawn, its certainty has been greatly reduced, so the stock market in the actual trend did not appear, is "Wen Wu first"; after the emergence, it is also "Wu Wu second"
Today's analysis article aims to clarify the various noises in the market and give a high probability direction for the next operation! Let's start my analysis, deduction and judgment!
Daily chart
Analysis of the trend structure of the Shanghai Composite Index
The yellow arrows are 1-minute level movements, and the blue arrows and yellow arrows are 1-minute line segments
6 points is a three-point buy point for 1 minute center 1-4 points;
6-7 points compared with 4-5 points, flat back, so 7 points is a divergence point;
After 7 points of divergence point, it expands to form a 1-minute center of 5-8 points;
8-9 pips and 9-10 pips are the pivotal oscillation movements of 5-8 pips in the 1-minute hub;
According to the principle of trend ambiguity, the composition of the 1-minute center is determined to be 1-4 points and 7-10 points, and the 4-7 point is used as the connection segment b of the two 1-minute hubs mentioned above, then the expectation of the first situation above is returned, that is, after the 60-month moving average and the 250-week moving average in the above figure obtain an effective support (whether the support is effective, detailed analysis and judgment will be done later), there is a 1-minute center 7-10 center leaving the segment of the trend that is, 10-11 points (11 points have not yet appeared, 10 points have not yet been confirmed), The maximum space for a bounce will be around 1000 points;
If the strength of the rally is not strong or weak, such as the effective pressure of any of the upper 5-30 month moving averages in the process of rebounding, it will turn downward again, or even a decent rebound will not appear directly down, such as "Revisiting the author's January 26 article "Reasons for firmly bearishing the Shanghai Composite Index to 3100 points" (interested can click on the link for detailed reading) In the message area, directly bearish to the 2800 point below
The second case in the image above will occur, and there will be a lower low near the 2800 point below; if this is the case, the best division is to expand from the 1-minute level to the 5-minute level
The above analysis of so much, in fact, the core point is whether the position support of the 60-month moving average and the 250-week line is effective, if it is ineffective, it will naturally appear again a new low, if it is effective, there will be the most optimistic rebound space of about 1000 (of course, the 1000 space here is not necessarily out of the 1000-point space rebound, but that there is a theoretical possibility of this limit, the final specific position, or to walk while looking, did not happen, and there is no theoretical support, I dare not say blindly! So the core question we want to analyze and argue is whether the 60- and 250-week moving averages can be effectively supported
Monthly chart
First of all, pay attention to the volume of energy, if you get effective support at the 60-month moving average position, you must continue to shrink during the MACD yellow and white line pulling back the zero axis, while the upper and lower Bollinger bands continue to flatten, we look at the disk every day, what to see, this is the core point to see
Weekly chart
MACD green column continues to lengthen, yellow and white line downward opening, from this indicator alone can know, in the vicinity of the 250-week moving average, is a wide range of oscillation trend, and from the Bollinger band opening form, combined with the MACD indicator form, you can know with a high probability that before the end of the shock trend, there will be no cycle of pen rebound trend, the simplest time period of this shock at least to appear a bottom type, and then according to the strength of the bottom type, and then study whether this bottom type is a downward relay, or a turn , is the fall relay, will fall again, the fall turn, there will be a reverse weekly pen rebound, in the absence of any technical support, the opening is 2800 and other assertions, and full of nonsense.
Use the 120-minute chart instead of the daily chart for analysis, the main reason is that many indicators of the daily chart are difficult to judge, from the perspective of the 120-minute period chart, the core concern is whether the 1-minute line segment of the white arrow in the upper chart can be formed near the 3150 point (you can analyze whether it can be formed from the trend structure of the following period chart), once formed, it will be compared with the first red arrow whether it is back, once the back, there will be a reverse 1-minute line segment rebound trend So our next analysis focuses on whether the fall of the white arrow can be in the internal trend structure near 3150
1 minute chart
The decline, which began at the high of 3708, formed a two-pivot downtrend
5-minute chart
From the MACD indicator of the 1-15 minute period chart, it is a small to large indicator pattern, and at the key support level, it is very easy to appear small to large trend
Well, from the above derivation process, koi here to give a relatively certain answer, that is, the support of the 60-month moving average and the 250-week line position will be effective, in the daily cycle will open a line segment level of the rebound, in the weekly cycle in the weekly line bottom of the formation, back to open a weekly cycle pen rebound trend, as for the fall to the 2800 point position of the problem, to wait for the above rebound, and then after the fall of the thing needs to pay attention to, even if you want to consider it is next year's thing, Or maybe this argument doesn't need to be considered at all!
Finally, if you think the author's analysis is helpful for your stock operation, please give a "like" because this can really help me, thank you!!!