Learn the new from the past! In the past week, the A-share Shanghai and Shenzhen markets have seen a sharp pit, and the market fell sharply in the first three trading days, especially in the afternoon on Wednesday, when there was a large number of panic sessions, and there were no signs of stabilization until Thursday and Friday. So what's the big thing that's happened in the capital markets this past week and this weekend? What is the intrinsic connection between these big events and this week's deep V rally in the broader market? And how will it affect the future market? More critically, will the A-share market continue to rally next week and successfully stabilize?
To clarify these problems, we must do a comprehensive review of these major events that have just happened on the news surface!
First, the central bank's heavy data came out, and the credit delivery in February was less than expected!
On March 11, the central bank released its financial statistics for February. In February, RMB loans increased by 1.23 trillion yuan, an increase of 125.8 billion yuan less than that of the same period last year. Medium- and long-term loans to residents decreased by 45.9 billion yuan, and medium- and long-term loans to enterprises increased by 505.2 billion yuan, an increase of 594.8 billion yuan less than that of the same period last year. M2 growth fell 0.6 percentage points year-on-year to 9.2%. Generally lower than market expectations.
This message was already mentioned by Jingyang in yesterday afternoon's article. There are three main reasons why the important financial data in February is less than expected: first, seasonal reasons, February is a traditional credit month; second, under the influence of the epidemic, residents' credit demand is still weak; third, the real estate industry is still in the process of bottoming out, which is reflected in the lack of residents' medium- and long-term loan demand.
Considering that the CPI data in January and February this year fell back below 1% again due to the decline in pork prices, this undoubtedly leaves enough room for the central bank to increase its macro adjustment. According to market expectations, the expectation of further RRR cuts and interest rate cuts by the central bank will heat up.
Second, the State Council New Office held a briefing on the revision of the "Government Work Report"!
Recently, the State Council New Office held a briefing on the revision of the "Government Work Report.", during the "two sessions", in line with the principle of being able to adopt as much as possible, a total of 92 supplementary amendments were made to the "Government Work Report", covering most of the opinions and suggestions put forward by the deputies and members, and the supplementary amendments mainly focused on stabilizing the economy, promoting innovation, and benefiting the people's livelihood.
Among them, in terms of stabilizing the economy, it involves fiscal, monetary, and employment policies, as well as ensuring supply and price stability, and reducing the production and operation costs of enterprises. In terms of promoting innovation, it involves supporting basic research, giving play to the main role of enterprise innovation, and supporting the development of the manufacturing industry. In terms of benefiting the people's livelihood, the opinions and suggestions of the deputies and members were relatively concentrated, and nearly 30 amendments were made in the fields of education, medical care, social security, and services. The revised "Government Work Report" also added the development of ice and snow sports and ice and snow industry.
This year's two sessions will be held on March 5 and will end this Thursday and Friday. Before the two sessions, Jingyang had written many articles analyzing the impact of the two sessions on the A-share market. Now everyone is more concerned about the trend of the market, and according to the previous analysis, the data of the past ten years show that the market will show an N-shaped trend before the middle and late stages of the two sessions. That is, it rose before the two sessions, adjusted during the two sessions, and rose within one month after the end of the two sessions. As far as this year's situation is concerned, it is basically the same as the historical trend, and it is also rising before the two sessions and falling during the two sessions, and it is hoped that after the two sessions, it can also replicate the trend of the past many years.
Third, there are tens of billions of star funds to cancel the purchase restriction!
On March 11, Industrial Securities Global Fund issued the Announcement on the Resumption of Large-scale Subscriptions and Large-Amount Conversion Transfer Applications of Xingquan Green Investment Hybrid Securities Investment Fund, resuming the acceptance of large-scale subscriptions of more than 50,000 yuan. According to the data, the size of the fund reached 10.429 billion yuan at the end of the fourth quarter of last year, and the yield since its establishment exceeded 381%.
Recently, Jingyang has disclosed that many star fund managers such as Zhang Kun, Lu Bin, Cui Chenlong, Housewarming, Yuan Weide and so on have begun to relax or open large subscriptions. Therefore, the Cincateuch Global Fund is not the first, and naturally it will not be the last.
In Jingyang's view, a number of star fund managers have chosen to relax the purchase restriction after continuous digging of pits in the market, indicating that the confidence of these fund managers in the market is gradually improving, and there is a clear willingness to bottom out. It can be said that the recent fund development subscription and a large number of listed companies released repurchases and monthly operating data, are all landmark events that the market is about to bottom!
Fourth, in February, automobile sales increased by 18.7% year-on-year, and new energy vehicle sales increased by 184.3% year-on-year!
According to the latest data from the China Automobile Association, China's automobile sales in February increased by 18.7% year-on-year and 0.9% month-on-month, and the sales of new energy vehicles in February increased by 184.3% year-on-year. Specifically, from January to February 2022, the production and sales of the automotive industry remained generally stable, continuing to grow year-on-year, and showing a 10% increase over the same period in 2019. From the perspective of subdivided models, the production and sales of passenger cars have declined month-on-month, maintaining rapid growth year-on-year, and the production and sales of commercial vehicles have declined month-on-month and year-on-year, and the performance is still sluggish. The overall performance of new energy vehicles this month remained outstanding, declining month-on-month and maintaining rapid growth year-on-year. In addition, although automobile exports this month also showed a certain decline compared with the previous month, they still maintained a growth momentum year-on-year.
Recently, the news of the automotive industry chain is mixed, the bearish is mainly concentrated in the supply chain, due to the russian-Ukrainian situation and the joint impact of resource price increases, the supply of parts is relatively fragile. Although the new energy automobile industry has been in a high-boom state, it will hinder the release of many companies' performance due to supply chain problems.
In view of this, this week's institutional funds are concentrated on selling auto parts sector companies. The whole car has been extremely weak in the past few months. Due to the long automotive industry chain and the wide coverage of individual stocks, when multiple branches perform weakly at the same time, it will also put pressure on the broader market.
Fifth, residents self-test new coronavirus antigen release!
On Friday night, the Health Commission released a message saying that the new crown joint prevention mechanism decided to add antigen detection as a supplement to nucleic acid testing, and organized the formulation of the "New Coronavirus Antigen Detection Application Plan (Trial)".
For the theme of COVID-19, this is undoubtedly big news! In Jingyang's view, mainland antigen detection has become an important supplementary means of epidemic prevention and control, mainly because of three reasons: First, the domestic antigen detection products are mature, the sensitivity can reach 90%, and many foreign places have been implemented for more than a year, which is obvious for epidemic prevention and control; second, the mainland's antigen detection products are also relatively sufficient in production capacity, which can cope with the situation of zero occurrence in many places across the country; third, the antigen detection response speed is faster, and it is more appropriate to use antigen detection in some specific places than nucleic acid detection. For example, airports, ports and other places.
Therefore, the new crown antigen home self-examination is suitable for large-scale general screening self-examination, which is an effective supplement to nucleic acid detection. Because this segment has received extremely low attention from the market before, coupled with the recent institutional funds themselves concentrated in the theme of the new crown epidemic, it is easier to resonate in the A-share market after the disclosure of this favorable sector!
Sixth, this week's largest industry sector is positive: (the following news comes from Jingyang's "A-share fierce material" this week):
1, the first quarter of the wind turbine equipment bidding exceeded expectations, the industry boom continued to improve! Related companies: Jinlei shares (300443), Haili Wind Power (301155), etc.
2, the European Photovoltaic Association calls for a substantial increase in photovoltaic installed capacity, and the demand for the industrial chain is expected to accelerate the release! Related companies: Sunshine Power (300274), Goodway (688390), etc.
3,1 pills at the lowest 980 yuan, stroke "miracle medicine" Angong niuhuang pills and price increases! Related companies: Guangyuyuan (600771), Tongrentang (600085), etc.
4, the price of the silicone industry chain has risen, and the industrial chain company hopes to benefit! Related companies: Dongyue Silicon (300821), Xinan Shares (600596), etc.
5, the price of natural diamonds has risen significantly, and the recognition of cultivated diamonds will increase rapidly! Related companies: Zhongbing Red Arrow (000519), Yellow River Cyclone (600172), Power Diamond (301071), etc.
6, nine departments issued a document "science and technology to aid youth", to create a world-class salt lake industrial base! Related companies: Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792), China National Machinery General Motors (600444), etc.
7, the infant and young childcare industry ushered in a heavy positive! Related companies: China Media Holdings (000607), Weichuang Shares (002308), etc.
Seventh, the most important individual stock news of A shares this week: (The following news comes from the "A-share fierce material" in Jingyang in midweek)
Tianhai Defense (300008) Company currently has full orders. Subsidiary Otsu Heavy Industries signed the "1600 tons wind power installation platform construction contract" with Wuhan Shipbuilding Machinery, with a contract price of 461 million yuan, accounting for 88.05% of the company's operating income in 2020.
Yiwei Power, a subsidiary of Ewell Lithium Energy (300014), plans to invest in the construction of a 20GWh square lithium iron phosphate battery production line and auxiliary facilities project and a 48GWh power energy storage battery production line and auxiliary facilities project in Jingmen High-tech Zone, with a total fixed asset investment of about 12.6 billion yuan.
Cnc (603185) is expected to increase sales of monocrystalline silicon wafers of 3.599 billion yuan in 2022-2024. Hongyuan New Material, a subsidiary of The Company, signed a contract with Zhejiang Aixu, Tianjin Aixu and Guangdong Aixu for the sale of "monocrystalline silicon wafers", and is expected to sell 552 million monocrystalline wafers in 2022-2024.
China Pharmaceutical (600056) has signed an agreement with Pfizer to be responsible for the commercial operation of Pfizer's COVID-19 therapeutic drug PAXLOVID in the Chinese mainland market during the agreement period (FY2022).
171 tons of lithium battery raw materials from The subsidiary of Tianhua Chaojing (300390) arrived in South Korea. This year, tianyi lithium industry exports to the international market lithium battery raw materials the amount is expected to exceed 1 billion yuan, will be more than 50 times more than last year.
New 300593 intends to invest in the construction of "special power supply expansion, high-reliability SiP power microsystem product industrialization and R&D center construction" project in Nanshao Town, Changping District, Beijing, with a total investment of about 850 million to 120 million yuan.
Aoxiang Pharmaceutical (603229) plans to raise no more than 500 million yuan for projects such as characteristic APIs.
Shuangliang Energy Saving (600481) subsidiary signed a contract for the sale and purchase of monocrystalline furnaces totaling 1.43 billion yuan.
Junshi Bio (688180) plans to raise no more than 3.98 billion yuan for the innovative drug research and development project, Shanghai Junshi Biotechnology Headquarters and R&D base project.
Seventh, this week's institutional funds bought the most stocks: (The following news comes from the mid-week Jingyang "A-share fierce material")
March 11: Oriental Bio 688298, medical devices + new crown testing, 4 institutions bought 512.29 million, accounting for 16.51%, which is the largest number of net purchases and the largest proportion of individual stocks by institutions on Friday.
March 10: Huayou Cobalt 603799, metal nickel + cobalt + salt lake lithium, 4 institutions bought 2 institutions to sell, institutional net purchase of 94.96 million, accounting for 4.64%, is yesterday's institutional net purchase of the most and the largest proportion of stocks.
March 9: Jiuan Medical 002432, medical devices + new crown testing, 3 institutions bought 119.45 million, which was the largest number of individual stocks bought by institutions yesterday. Monochem 603538, Chemical Pharmaceutical, 3 institutions bought 1 institution to sell, institutional net purchase of 56.91 million accounted for 6.47%, is yesterday's institutional net purchase of the largest proportion of stocks.
March 8: Sub-potassium international 000893, potash fertilizer, 1 institution bought 37.69 million, accounting for 4.59%, which is the largest proportion of individual stocks in the net purchase of institutions yesterday.
March 7: Pudong Jinqiao 600639, real estate, 3 institutions bought 1 institution to sell, institutional net purchase of 34.43 million accounted for 4.01%, which is the largest number of institutional net purchases and the largest proportion of stocks on Friday.