The battered global capital market ushered in a comprehensive rebound last night, of which the german and French gains soared to 7 points, and the NASDAQ of the United States also soared to 3.6%, I have to say, it is really quite violent, what makes them in such a short period of time, a shocking reversal?
A glance at Brent, who has fallen by 12 points, may have some understanding, in the past half a month, oil has soared directly from $93 to $139 because of the big goose and small black, a range of nearly 50%, and the impact is also quite far-reaching.
In the long run, it will push up inflation, suppress consumption power, make the global economic growth rate decline further, in the short term, such a short period of time, such a large increase, so that oil has a devouring effect, a large number of capital abandoned other markets, rushing towards oil, so long and short resonance, so that global capital for the economic trend more and more pessimistic, as one of the performance of the financial market, naturally not good.
Of course, some small partners may be more strange, you say that other financial markets with higher valuations around the world may panic because of the global recession caused by oil.
From the perspective of the economic cycle, a rabbit is obviously faster than other countries a progress, when they enter the recession, a rabbit just ushered in a recovery, in the superposition of small A so, a position that does not go up and down, how to say, should not be the same as its financial market, sad to urge the face are a little swollen!
Later I carefully pondered, mainly for two reasons, one is that inflation restricts economic development, inflation this thing whether in the face of the initial economic recovery or the later recession, the effect is the same, the higher the inflation will make the higher the price, and the higher the price, the more it will limit the expansion space of the currency, after all, high prices with high growth, it is still appropriate, but high prices with low growth is stagflation!
Most of the productive countries do not have a particularly good way of suppressing, do not release water, feel that the power behind is gone, release water, and feel that stagflation is coming, the above, let the market have a particularly contradictory psychology.
So long procrastination, and encountered the second factor, quantitative model (personal speculation), the result produced a magical chemical reaction, I believe that yesterday in the small A performance are clear, there is actually no sudden news on the market, a little bit of impact, only to limit the import of crude oil of the big goose, but the market is obviously not cold to this, has been overdigested, the fluctuation of crude oil is not large, but not so why, suddenly completely can not stop falling down, obviously unreasonable.
So individuals feel that it is a quantitative factor, this thing is not unusual to say, mainly through the machine to replace people's judgment, good times it will prompt capital to buy together through the quantitative model, bad times capital will also be sold together through the quantitative model, the characteristics of helping the upper and lower are very obvious, fortunately near two o'clock in the afternoon, a mysterious force from the East, making the market come to a super deep V, it is really gratifying, but therefore you can also feel the quantification of this thing, in a rabbit side is still some water and soil, Further harmony may be achieved later.
After saying that, let's talk about what is going on with oil? How did you suddenly get hammered 12 points? Why is it the complete opposite of the market trend! According to the available information, there are two main reasons.
The first is that the UAE has actually started to shout OPEC + increase oil production capacity.
To say that Bai Zong recently for the oil thing can not be less than pulling relations, the early is to encourage a group of little brothers there to release crude oil reserves, the result of this matter in addition to showing a big beautiful king hegemony, did not see other uses, I thought that this matter has passed, did not think, the United States in order to fill the void, harvest global capital, hard to make the big goose and small Wu thing come true, and the situation is still no sign of convergence.
In fact, on this point, you can also see from the follow-up remarks of the two speakers that they obviously want to ease up, and Skew has even promised to give up joining NATO, but the harvest of the United States has not yet reached its optimum, so how can it easily give up this hard-won friction?
So these two things, I am afraid it will not end easily, of course, the United States itself has also suffered from anti-phagocytosis, crazy rise in oil, so that the subsequent inflation in the United States soared to more than double digits, has become a high probability of things, the original US economic momentum is about to die, infrastructure is still dragging its feet, and then through the oil to push inflation so much, the United States and tightrope there is no difference.
Who can not say well, the United States will not fall into other countries directly exploded, the first two days of the US stock market fell by 20%, fell into a technical bear market, should be a most intuitive embodiment, made the United States roar and restarted the U.S.-Iran negotiations, at present, the talks are not very smooth, the United States wants too much, give too little, although a certain Iraq also wants to sell oil to alleviate the dry pockets, but obviously also wants to take advantage of this rare opportunity, bite down on a few more mouthfuls of beautiful meat.
During such a stalemate, on March 9, the United States suddenly went to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to expand their oil production capacity, these two are rare domineering side leaks, directly rejected the call of the white house, after all, this juncture, as long as it is often read the news know, this is a clear, to let them pressure the price of oil.
But unfortunately, this year as a large landlord of the United States beautiful no surplus grain, need to rely on the sacrifice of the little brother to return the blood, not to mention other small landlords, these oil-producing countries can make money in the way is basically oil, the cost of exploitation is very low, but if combined with the transportation packaging, combined with the loyalty built by welfare, the silver spent can not be much at all, according to calculations, the overall oil price is above 80 US dollars, to achieve break-even, but in the past ten years, most of the oil prices are hovering in fifty or sixty US dollars, The days of the small landlords have been even difficult for a long time!
I believe that many people should have seen this thing, this thing can be said in essence, the high institutional cost has long been so that the oil producing countries can not afford, only through this way to carry out open source throttling, now the oil price is not easy to go up, let them inexplicably give up sitting on their success, to thankless expansion of production capacity, almost too possible.
Why? Oil to rise to today's height, itself is the big goose and small things stirred, not the demand is really so exuberant, the oil production cycle is not as rapid as the general industrial chain, even if the immediate expansion of production at this time, before and after toss down at least a year and a half, in addition to this period even if the oil stops or continues to rise, global inflation has to further soar, too high inflation, and will restrict the space for currency to exert, monetary space will restrict the sustained growth of the economy.
Several factors add up, it is not certain that the global economic crisis will come, where there are still so many needs for oil, so under such early consequences, it is better to lie down and wait for it to soar!
After all, in front of this stall, the U.S. oil elite can lie down and earn? I can't lie down in Saudi Arabia?
I thought that this matter would end here, and as a result, only a day later, it was suddenly reported that OPEC + suffered a backstabbing from the United Arab Emirates, so in such a short period of time, the change of the saying was so fast, it should have happened that we could not imagine, but from the point of view, it can be clearly seen that it is quite slippery.
Because its so-called increase in production refers to the rapid increase in production of others, and they have not clearly said whether to increase production in the end, which is obviously not to offend the United States, but also want to sit on the interests of oil prices, although this matter has not yet become a foregone conclusion, but obviously has torn a hole in OPEC +, how the follow-up is, but also depends on how the Means of the United States are!
The second is that Goldman Sachs has begun to deliberately abandon carbon neutrality and restart other energy sources to ensure energy security
On this point, I looked it up on the Internet, and I didn't see a clear statement on any website, so I can only blame Goldman Sachs for letting go, which probably means that the Russian and European affairs have become a foregone conclusion, and the long-term impact caused by it will affect Europe's energy planning, so it is necessary for Europe to change the previous plan, and it is appropriate to ensure energy security through more carbon emissions, including the increase in dependence on coal, nuclear energy, and natural gas.
Is it possible to say that such a thing? It can only be said that there is still a certain probability, Europe's knots are not lacking in energy heating, since it is not lacking, and intends to reduce the share of the goose, or can only buy more expensive goddess cards, or in this period to prepare more, spare energy at the critical moment to replace, in fact, in the end, or with the amount of silver has to do, the right to choose has always been in Europe's own hands!
Writing here is basically almost over, just at this time also saw, at the same time as the oil price fell, a rabbit's small A also came to a limit reversal today, objectively speaking, whether from the personal pocket or from the perspective of the global economy, the big goose and small black thing should be resolved as soon as possible, and the oil price that is about to go to heaven should also be suppressed.
In this round of the cycle, although we are already in a group of relatively good control of inflation, but we also have to consider the latter things, too high oil prices will make us cowering, difficult to exert, in this do not know when the time will suddenly erupt global crisis, can give enough imagination space, is the best!
Finally, one more word, after this heavy hammer, Small A has completely opened up the upside, and those who do not explode have already, once the outbreak may be far beyond the previous imagination, it is really more and more like 2014!
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