Introduction: Today's mood is indeed a little depressed, on one side is a screen full of green big A, on the other side is a red and plump futures market, a red and a green, stabbing people's eyes dry and painful, it is difficult to calm the heart!
When the war in Ukraine was not yet over, when communicating privately with many investors, most people believed that the development of the situation in Ukraine would still make concessions to each other and eventually settle peacefully!
In the early morning of February 24, a large-scale russian military operation broke the expectations of most people before that.
You know, in the field of investment, the most critical one is risk management and control. In the field of investment, risk control is always the first in the assessment and evaluation indicators of fund managers, project managers and private equity managers.
However, judging from the current state of market feedback, many people have misjudged the situation, not only before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but even after the conflict, there are still more than half of investors who believe that the war will end in a short period of time.
In the capital market, the prediction of trends is crucial, and the medium- and long-term investment plans for the next six months, one year, three years and five years are closely related to it.
Trend prediction, that is, direction prediction, just imagine, if the direction prediction is wrong, what will be the consequences? "A mistake into a thousand ancient hatreds" is by no means alarmist!
The situation in Ukraine, to the surprise of most people, was wrongly predicted and suffered heavy losses!
Huang Huaihongda believes that it is reasonable to have such a problem, after all, the investment agents in the market have not experienced war for many years, and the harm of war is a little difficult for them to understand!
I remember that when the conflict first arose, Huang Huaihong informed some friends in the circle that the prices of wheat, corn and other grains would rise violently, and many people were still dismissive.
Some friends even said that last year, Henan, Hebei, Shandong, and Shanxi flooded so many fields, and they did not see the price of wheat and corn rise, and there was a war more than 8,000 kilometers away from us.
Huang Huaihong was speechless at that time!
You know, the current Russian-Ukrainian dispute is not a matter of one year or two years, since Crimea joined Russia in 2014, before and after, how many countries have been involved in this dispute? How many people are laying out behind the scenes?
On the surface, it is a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but the real situation is that almost all the major powers of the world are involved, including ourselves, and we want to be alone, is it possible?
If the trend is wrong, you have to pay for your mistakes, so we have seen that in the three trading days this week, commodities soared, and oil, natural gas, nonferrous metals, coal, wheat, gold, silver, etc., took turns to jump and pull up.
In just half a month, wheat futures have pulled 6 consecutive stops; Lun nickel has risen by more than 70% a day; Brent crude oil has peaked at 139, and even some people have frantically clamored that oil prices will break through 300.
The Russian stock market fell by more than 50%, the European, American, British and other stock markets plummeted, and our big A also suffered a big fall!
A few days ago, many people were still discussing how much benefit the Russian-Ukrainian conflict would bring to China, and now it seems that the situation is getting more and more beyond the original prediction, and even some people jumped on their feet and shouted that we must have confidence in our market!
Yes, others are greedy and I am afraid, others are afraid of my greed, it is the golden rule of the investment field, but it depends on when, you know, confidence is sometimes unable to withstand the impact of the market, think about the stock market crash in 2015, how many people who predict the situation are buried deeply?
Our big A has always been a fast race when panic comes!
The situation in Ukraine, the trend prediction is wrong, the losses are heavy! What's next?
Huang Huaihong believes that the current situation in Ukraine will not cause a third world war, and the biggest possibility is that Ukraine has promised to maintain its permanent neutral status and no longer seek to join NATO.
Europe wants to get rid of Russian energy in the short term, it is not realistic, it cost so much money, the pipelines are repaired, and now the pipelines are closed, to buy American gas and oil that are several times higher than the price, and the Europeans are not stupid, why do they do that?
Looking back at the entire history of the stock market, you will find that the most important thing is not what value investment, nor what price speculation, the most important thing is that you choose the right country.
During World War I, if you chose the United States, you would increase your wealth by about 20-30 times within the decade after the end of the war.
During World War II, if you chose Germany, after the war, your wealth would go to zero because the German stock market was closed. If you had chosen the British and American stock markets in 1944, congratulations, at the end of the war in 1945, Britain soared 100 percent and the United States soared 50 percent.
The country wins, you lie and make money.
The country has lost, and no matter how hard you try, there is only one way to great destruction.
Isn't it a joke that when even the stock market is gone, you expect to make money by buying and selling stocks?
Huang Huaihongda believes that in a sense, the current futures market is a mess, and the price and value are seriously deviated.
And now the big A, some high-quality targets, is indeed the price of cabbage, there is a foreign capital to pick up the cheap, it is better for our own people to share a point first, although our family still has such and such problems, we still believe that our family is the safest, the development prospects are the best!
Write at the end:
Spot agricultural products, to be treated differently, wheat, corn is hard currency, the people take food as the sky, at what time, the probability of major risks is very low, so the storage risk is also the lowest.
However, the current wheat and corn prices, has been at a historical high, remind friends to do storage, pay attention to the high level of realization, so as not to price retracement amplitude is too large, resulting in unnecessary losses!
Garlic, ginger and other vegetable varieties, is not related to the national economy and people's livelihood of the necessities of life, if the supply exceeds demand, coupled with the general environment recession, the storage risk is relatively large.
To be a friend of agricultural product storage, you need to raise your spirits, so as not to misjudge the situation and produce unnecessary losses!