【Disk analysis】
Tuesday's disk surface appeared high and low to go, Brother Niu watched his self-selected stocks getting greener and greener, looked out the window and suddenly found that the place that was previously invisible suddenly saw, it turned out that recently there were more green, and his eyesight became better! The three major indexes began to accelerate the downward trend, compared to the European and American markets, A stock market took the lead in creating a new low, investors in the bear market for more than 3 months may feel that the fall is endless, the mentality will be miserable.
Bull Rider Bear believes that this position should still maintain the strategy given last week: "Only sell, not buy!" "The funds in hand can choose currency funds, bond funds and other low-risk product allocations, and wait for the market to stabilize before entering the market." The third Russian-Ukrainian talks have ended, there is still no substantial progress, which will also make the peripheral market "impatient", at present can pay attention to the rebound trend after the big fall, if the weak rebound is really to consider the "passive exit", if the strong rebound is basically the position of the bottom formation.
A share of the three major indexes an unusual collective high, followed by a high open low collective green trend, the two cities red plate stocks more than 400, the current index is relatively stable, but the stocks still show a general downward trend, the theme plate in the wine, east and west, semiconductor and other concepts of strong performance, assisted reproduction, baby, helicobacter pylori and other concepts performance is poor. Non-ferrous nickel plate opened sharply, Qingdao Zhongcheng, Ningbo United and other multi-stock opening word up and down, Shengtun Mining, Xingye Mining and other sharply higher, catalytic, London nickel soared 76%, once touched the record high of 55,000 US dollars / ton, the recent peripheral non-ferrous metals by the Russian-Ukrainian relationship soared, such a pull-up trend caused related listed companies to appear favorable to promote the rise in stock prices. Liquor stocks opened stronger, Luzhou Laojiao, Golden Seed Wine and other collectives rushed higher, Guizhou Moutai intraday rose nearly 5%, the company released the first monthly operating data report in history: January to February 2022 to achieve total operating income of about 20.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year; to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of about 10.2 billion yuan, an increase of about 20% year-on-year.
ChiNext index fell below 2600 points, for the first time since November 2020, the three major indexes have fallen more than 1%, the current opening 1 hour of the market appeared a clear panic, the two cities trading volume suddenly increased, after a night of thinking, some investors chose to cut meat to leave, after the index new low, brokerages, banks, insurance and other financial stocks collectively pulled up, the main funds shot, whether it is the bottom here is still waiting to confirm. Brokerage stocks rose, Hualin Securities impact up and down, Guosheng Financial Holdings, Huachuang Yangan, etc. have followed up, the index rebounded slightly after the financial stocks rose, and then there was a big decline in the trend, the three major indexes continued to fall on the market, but the Ningde era, Guizhou Moutai and other large-cap weighted stocks did not continue to fall sharply, which also shows that the main funds began to "test the disk", and the market will have a strong protective disk in the short term. Agricultural stocks shock lower, Zhejiang agricultural shares touched a drop stop, Fubon shares fell more than 11%, Taifu Pump Industry, China Agriculture United and so on have fallen more than 5%, from Tuesday's disk point of view there is a trend of plate replenishment, the recent rise in the sector has fallen, the two cities have fallen to stop the increase in stocks, the market panic is increasing, the main funds failed to pull up the index to turn red, resulting in the market funds forced to reduce positions.
In the afternoon, the ChiNext index turned red, the Ningde era fell from nearly 3% to more than 2%, Aier Ophthalmology, Sunshine Power, Oriental Wealth and other weighted stocks collectively strengthened, the main funds opened a mode of pulling up the weight, intraday LME nickel rose by more than 14%, once again approaching the historical high of $55,000 / ton set yesterday. The semiconductor sector continued to strengthen in the afternoon, Jianghua micro-stop, Jiangfeng Electronics and other stocks rose by more than 10%, core source micro, new clean energy, etc. have risen, mainly because the meeting mentioned the problem of domestic automotive chip demand, this news directly stimulates the future development of domestic listed companies, it is obvious that it will be conducive to the emergence of favorable policies. According to data from Shanghai Steel Federation, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 0.10 million yuan / ton today, with an average price of 503,500 yuan / ton; lithium hydroxide rose by 0.65 to 0.75 million yuan / ton, the highest reported at 485,000 yuan / ton. In terms of cathode materials, the price of lithium manganate rose by 0.85 million yuan / ton today, the average price reached 136,000 yuan / ton, nickel beans rose by 141,000 yuan / ton, the recent rise in bulk commodities, raw material prices are also high, I hope that listed companies can pull up after profits.
Market:
GEM:
【Market Forecast】
The Shanghai Composite Index opened high and low on Tuesday, and there was a V-shaped reversal trend in the intraday, but unfortunately, the pull was not strong enough, and then fell back again, but increased the extent of the decline of individual stocks. The main funds try to pull up the weighted stocks and financial stocks to protect the disk, this position can only be regarded as a "test plate", the real sense of the rebound pattern has not yet come, then pay attention to whether the market can be stabilized above 3350 points.
The ChiNext index opened high and low on Tuesday, hitting a recent new low of 2567.91 points, and the number of red-cap stocks in the two cities remained significantly at about 500, and the number of stocks that fell and stopped was the highest in March. Small and medium-sized innovation theme plate has appeared to make up for the trend of falling, the recent anti-fall sector and popular themes have fallen sharply, and then pay attention to whether the ChiNext index can stabilize above 2600 points.
【Gold Rush Program】
Recently, the most commented question is: "Brother Niu, do you want to add warehouses here?" ”
For this answer, Brother Niu has said last week: "Only sell and do not buy!" ”
If you analyze from the psychology of investors, it shows that everyone has a lot of idle funds, or just after selling from other funds, then consider whether to add new funds. The experience of riding a bull to see a bear for the bottom of the bear market is that no one will consider adding positions, not even asking whether to cut meat, the market will be silent, and the current market is restless, the peripheral situation is still the downward trend of the technical bear market, and the bearish news is still coming. The intraday rally will only make you lose less, does not mean that you can continue to make money, so do you feel the end?
Concepts such as semiconductors, winemaking, and gallium nitride in the theme section are the main participants in the net inflow of funds, and the net outflow of concepts such as seed industry, lithium ore, and assisted reproduction is relatively large. At the meeting to find the bull and bear, it said that it is currently necessary to focus on solving the shortage of chips in manufacturing areas such as automobiles. Last year, due to the influence of a variety of factors, there was a shortage of chips in the world, and this problem will be focused on this year.
Suppose that traditional cars need 500-600 semiconductor chips/vehicle, and new energy vehicles need 1000-2000 semiconductor chips/vehicle. It is estimated that in 2026, the sales volume of traditional cars will be 67.8 million units, the number of new energy vehicles will be 44.2 million units, and the demand for automotive chips will be 90.3 billion units per year.
This is a good news in the afternoon, but from the afternoon mood, funds are still involved in semiconductors, chips and other sectors to pull up, indicating that funds are still relatively active, but there are too few opportunities to make money. At present, the market is only rebounding in the decline, not the real sense of the bottom formation, "fellow countrymen do not go" the drama should be remembered, the key here is to consider the strength of the rebound, really can not admit the mistake or admit the mistake. If the main funds protect the disk, the institutional funds "self-help" to drive the stabilization of the A-share market, then investors should keep up with the rhythm of entering the market.