The military conflict between Russia and Ukraine has entered its 12th day. On March 6, the Russian Defense Ministry issued a briefing saying that the Russian armed forces had carried out strikes against 2203 Ukrainian military targets. There are rumors that Western countries are secretly preparing for Ukraine's defeat in the war and even the establishment of a "government-in-exile". US Secretary of State Blinken admitted on the 6th that Ukraine has made a plan for Zelenskiy's death to ensure that the Ukrainian government can continue.
In the face of continued sanctions by the United States and Europe and other Western countries, Russian President Putin once again warned on the 5th that this is "similar to a declaration of war." Putin said that "the establishment of a no-fly zone in Ukraine is equivalent to intervening in the war." At the same time, Putin also asked the government department to determine the list of foreign countries that have committed unfriendly acts against Russia within two days.
Screenshot of The BS interview video of Blinken on the 6th
What happened to Zelenskiy's death? BLINKEN: Ukraine has plans
Blinken, who is in Moldova, was interviewed by the CBS program "Facing the Country" on the 6th. The host asked that Zelenskiy repeatedly said that this could be his "last day" and that "if Russia kills him, what will be the consequences?" Do you have contingency plans to support a Ukrainian government without him at his helm? ”
Blinken began by affirming the leadership of zelenskiy's government, praising them as "the embodiment of the most courageous Ukrainian people."
"The Ukrainian side has already made plans, but to ensure that there is some form of continuity of government that we call, I will not discuss them in detail." Blinken said, "I'll stop here. ”
In the above interview, Blinken once again confirmed that he had briefly entered Ukraine, "just a day ago (5th), I was in Ukraine, with my friend and colleague, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, at least 15 feet (about 4.57 meters) into Ukrainian territory. ”
On March 5, Blinken, who was on a visit to Poland, met with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kureba on the Polish-Ukrainian border, and at a joint press conference held by the two men, Blinken renewed his support for Ukraine.
Kureba said he thanked Blinken for coming to Ukraine, "We just crossed this [border] line, and we're standing here now." I hope that the Ukrainian people will clearly see that we have friends who really support us. Thank you for your leadership in consolidating the support of the international community for Ukraine. We had meaningful discussions about weapons, sanctions, the isolation of Russia on the international stage, and so on. ”
The Washington Post said on the 5th that the United States and its allies are quietly formulating "contingency plans" to prepare for the situation that if the Russian military operation is successful, the Ukrainian government will be forced into exile. NBC said that a group of U.S. lawmakers met with former president's national security adviser O'Brien on the 5th to discuss the matter of letting Zelensky's government go into exile. The lawmakers said there was "significant value" in keeping Zelenskiy in Ukraine, including "political superiority," "image superiority" and "morale superiority," but no value if his life was "in danger."
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On March 5, local time, Blinken and Kuleba met with the media at the Polish-Ukrainian border Photo source: The US State Department
NATO refuses to set up a no-fly zone, Blinken: but fighter jets can be provided
Despite its rhetorical support, the reluctance of the United States and other NATO countries to invade Ukraine or to become further involved in a military conflict has greatly displeased Zelenskiy. NATO said on the 4th that it refused to set up a no-fly zone for Russia over Ukraine, and NATO Secretary-General Stoltenberg bluntly said that "we are not part of the conflict." Zelenskiy criticized NATO for its "weakness."
When Blinken was interviewed on the 6th, he was asked about NATO's reluctance to set up a no-fly zone, and the host also asked: "What else can the United States do in this regard?" For example, if the Polish government, a NATO member, wanted to send fighter jets, would the United States agree? ”
Blinken said NATO countries could supply fighter jets to Ukraine, "and that gave the green light." In fact, we are now discussing with Polish friends what we can do to meet their needs if they choose to provide fighter jets to the Ukrainians. ”
He also said the U.S. and NATO, the European Union and members of the Group of Seven and other partners are working closely together to put pressure on Russia through additional sanctions, "which are actively under discussion and will be implemented in the coming days, while further steps will be taken to enable Ukrainians to withstand Russian 'aggression.'" ”
In addition, Blinken said in an interview with NBC on the 6th that the United States is cooperating with European allies to jointly study the possibility of banning the import of Russian oil to further punish the behavior of "Russia invading Ukraine".
"Clear warnings and stern threats"
Germany's "Süddeutsche Zeitung" reported on the 6th with the title of "Pointing to the United States and NATO: Putin Once Again Issued a Clear Warning and Severe Threat" and reported a speech by Russian President Putin at the Aviation Training Center of Russian Airlines on the 5th.
In his speech, putin made it clear that he would regard any attempt by any country to establish a no-fly zone in Ukraine as a war against Russia. Putin also warned that the imposition of sanctions on Russia by the United States and other Western countries is similar to a declaration of war. But at the same time, he said, he hopes it won't get to that point, because [the West] should understand that it threatens the whole world.
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict entered its 12th day, and on March 7, local time, Russian and Ukrainian representatives will hold a third round of negotiations in Belarus.
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Major General Igor Konashenkov issued a briefing on the 6th that since the special military operation was launched on February 24, the Russian armed forces have carried out attacks on 2203 Ukrainian military targets, including 76 command posts and communication centers, 111 sets of anti-aircraft weapon systems (S-300, "beech" M1 and "Wasp") and 71 radar stations.
In addition, according to the Russian "Viewpoint" reported on the 6th, in response to the intensive sanctions in the West, Putin has instructed the government to compile a "list of unfriendly countries" within two days, which lists "countries that have taken unfriendly actions against the Russian Federation, Russian entities and individuals".
In May last year, Russia added the United States and the Czech Republic to the "List of Unfriendly Countries" and restricted its diplomatic missions, consular agencies and representative offices of state agencies in Russia from signing labor contracts and employment agreements with individuals in Russia. The scope of the new "list of unfriendly countries" will obviously be larger. The report quoted experts as saying that the United Kingdom will be at the top of the list, and Germany, Poland and other countries will also be included in the list.
Ukraine has relaxed, the United States and Europe are already preparing for the Ukrainian government-in-exile, and there are 4 possible outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian war
The Russian-Ukrainian negotiations have been conducted for the second round, and in the second round of negotiations, the Ukrainian side said that it is "unwilling to make compromises on territorial integrity, but can consider a 'non-NATO model'".
Ukraine has long sought to join the European Union and NATO, but has been strongly opposed by Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin also described this behavior as "NATO's aggression against Russia" as evidence of Ukraine's possible membership in NATO.
On the one hand, Ukraine is in a hurry to join, and on the other hand, NATO does not want to accept Ukraine at present, which really makes Ukraine difficult to handle.
Ukrainian negotiator Arahamiya said on March 6 that "NATO is not ready to discuss the issue of getting Ukraine to join NATO at this time, and there will be no chance in the next 5 or 10 years." ”
So, we're going to discuss some 'non-NATO' models. For example, there may be different countries that can provide direct assurances, such as the United States, China, the United Kingdom, and perhaps Germany and France. We are willing to discuss these issues on a broader scale, rather than just bilaterally with Russia and other partners. ”
Although Russia and Ukraine held armistice negotiations, the Russian offensive did not slow down.
Ukrainian President Želensky said on March 6 that the airfield in the large city of Vinnitsa in the central and western parts of Ukraine had been completely destroyed by the fierce bombardment of eight Russian missiles. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, many Ukrainian cities and airfields have been bombed or shelled by russian forces, but Vinnytsia in the central and western parts of Ukraine is far from the border with Russia or Belarus, and the destruction of dual-use airports by Russian attacks is still no small matter.
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Zelensky took the opportunity to once again demand that the West set up a no-fly zone in Ukraine in case the Russians launched an increasingly widespread attack.
In this regard, Putin said that the establishment of a no-fly zone is equivalent to participating in a war. On March 6, the Kremlin again warned NATO member Romania and Ukraine's neighbors not to take in Military Aircraft from Kiev or "enter the war as if they were at war."
Putin also warned at an event that "if Ukraine continues to resist as it is now, it is likely that the country will not exist."
Russia's goal is clear, that is, to implement the goal of "de-militarizing Ukraine".
Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Konashenkov said on March 7 that as part of the implementation of the demilitarization of Ukraine, the Russian military will attack Ukraine's defense and military enterprises with precision guided weapons. "The Ukrainian side is using these companies to repair military hardware equipment damaged by Russian air strikes in order to re-enter combat," he said. In order to avoid the risk of life of the personnel of the relevant enterprises, we warn in advance to fight such facilities and ask the employees of these enterprises to leave quickly. ”
At present, with the increase of the Russian offensive, the United States and Europe expect that the Russian army will eventually take Ukraine, and have quietly planned how to help Ukraine set up a government-in-exile to direct the domestic confrontation with the Russian army.
Still, U.S. and European officials remain cautious about supporting Ukraine in a protracted guerrilla war, fearing that NATO countries will be embroiled in a conflict with Russian forces. Some officials warned that, in Moscow's eyes, supporting Zelenski's government to remotely control the domestic guerrilla war from Poland constituted a NATO attack on Russia.
European leaders have been unable to guess how Putin will deal with a defeated Ukraine. Some officials believe that Putin may want to cut down Ukraine's territory to a much smaller size than it is now, and it is likely that the land east of the Dnieper River will all be assigned to or incorporated into Russia after the war, and ukraine, which is left with only Uzbekistan, may still be able to maintain its independence.
The outcome of this war is currently being speculated by all sides.
The Atlantic Council, a U.S. think tank, pointed out in its latest report that there are four possible outcomes to the Russo-Ukrainian war, but even the most optimistic outcome will not restore stability to Europe.
The first outcome, the most optimistic outcome, according to the report, is that the Ukrainian army and people resolutely resisted, successfully prevented Russia from taking Kiev and preserved the Zelensky regime. After the war dragged on for more and more, Russia gradually could not withstand economic and diplomatic pressure and decided to withdraw its troops. Ukraine, on the other hand, is closer to the West, but the aftermath of the war, which has claimed thousands of lives, still makes it difficult for Europe to return to its former stable state.
The second ending is a bit bad. Russia succeeded in taking Kiev, overthrowing the Zelenskiy regime and establishing a pro-Russian regime, but the Ukrainian people's resistance to the rise and refusal to comply with death led to continuous protests throughout Ukraine, and Russia's ostensible victory but actually did not pay off, but it cost more resources than the war to quell the Ukrainian unrest. Severe western sanctions have also brought Russia's economy to a standstill.
The third outcome was that Russia succeeded in overthrowing the Zelensky regime and suppressing it with force, forcing the Ukrainians to submit and eventually establish a new regime in Eastern Europe. Russia has paid a huge economic price for this, but Putin has consolidated political power at home. NATO has no choice but to accept the facts, while Sweden and Finland may choose to become MEMBERS of NATO for their own safety.
The fourth possible outcome would be the most dangerous scenario, which would be the russo-Ukrainian war that would turn into a direct nato-Russia war. Once NATO decides to establish a no-navigation zone in Ukrainian airspace, or if Russia intentionally or unintentionally begins to attack the territory of NATO member states, NATO and Russia will be on the verge of war.
Under the war, a decision by the leader will change the situation, and at present we can only wait and see the outcome of Ukraine.