Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian incident, many countries, led by the European Union and the United States, have imposed large-scale sanctions on Russia in an attempt to deal a heavy blow to Russia in agriculture, science and technology, trade, finance and other aspects. Of course, this series of sanctions has had a profound impact on the stability of the Russian national economy, such as the depreciation of the ruble, rising prices, the collapse of the stock market, and panic.
"Sanctions" have become a common means of competition between countries in the world today, and whether they can effectively resolve the negative impact caused by sanctions tests a country's anti-fragility ability and economic resilience. Just as the United States has frequently imposed scientific and technological sanctions on the mainland in recent years, it attempts to use core cutting-edge technology to jam our necks and make China in a weak position in global scientific and technological competition. But the more such a situation, "forcing evolution, making up for shortcomings, and strengthening the self" is particularly important, and the book "Anti-Fragility" believes that since the black swan event is unavoidable, it is necessary to find ways to get the most benefits from it.
At present, Europe and the United States and other countries have launched financial wars, scientific and technological wars, public opinion wars, information wars, economic wars, trade wars, energy wars and so on against Russia. Imagine if the United States and the European Union excluded Russia from the mainstream global economic system, and whether Russia could afford to meet such a huge challenge and minimize losses. As we all know, Russia has a single industrial structure, relies heavily on oil and gas exports, and has a weak anti-risk ability of the national economy.
The formation of a country's anti-fragility ability has an ultra-long process, which must be based on a country's resource endowments, industrial pattern, and economic foundation, and actively deploy in the 5-10 years before the crisis comes, and always maintain a sense of distress. In contrast, china-US relations have been contested for decades, and the mainland has forged a set of self-protection defense systems in the context of normalization and uncertainty, and has continuously strengthened its self-reliance in agriculture, finance, science and technology, trade, industrial chain, consumer market, international relations and other fields.
One. From food security to scientific and technological self-reliance
The mainland is a superpower with a population of 1.4 billion, ensuring food security is the bottom line, and it is necessary to try to achieve self-sufficiency even without food imports, without shaking the foundation of people's survival due to epidemics, wars and natural disasters. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the State Council has issued the No. 1 Document of the Central Committee guiding the work of the three rural areas for 19 consecutive times, stabilizing the basic agricultural plan and ensuring stable production and supply.
In 2021, the total national grain output was 1,365.7 billion jin, an increase of 26.7 billion jin over the previous year, an increase of 2.0%. Among them, the output of summer grain and early rice was 291.9 billion jin and 56 billion jin respectively, an increase of 6.2 billion jin and 1.4 billion jin respectively over the previous year; the output of autumn grain was 1,017.8 billion jin, an increase of 19.1 billion jin over the previous year, an increase of 1.9%. On the whole, this means that China's grain production has remained above 1.3 trillion catties for seven consecutive years.
Scientific and technological competition has risen to the key field of international competition, the mainland from the introduction to imitate innovation, to domestic substitution, independent controllable, from low-end manufacturing to high-end core research and development, as soon as possible to achieve a true sense of scientific and technological self-reliance, and no longer subject to others "card neck" behavior. In the past 20 years, the mainland's R&D investment has increased by 23 times, with a scale of more than 2 trillion yuan, ranking second in the world. China's R&D spending is even higher than that of the EU-28 combined.
Nowadays, the tide of domestic substitution has poured into various tracks, and domestic products are getting stronger and stronger. In addition to the domestic substitution in the field of technology that helps to enhance the comprehensive national strength of the mainland and the right to speak internationally, domestic products in the field of consumption are also increasingly popular, cultural self-confidence has been significantly improved, and domestic substitution has shown a trend of blossoming everywhere.
Two. From the Belt and Road Initiative to the Dual Cycle Pattern
The Belt and Road Initiative is a strategic measure to deepen the development of the international market in the context of globalization. It can not only consume excess capacity and export strong infrastructure capacity, but also take the opportunity to let Chinese enterprises and the renminbi go out and show their fists in the opportunities of the times created by the government, so as to minimize the resistance to global competition.
In addition, China's oil and gas resources and mineral resources are highly dependent on foreign countries, and the Belt and Road Initiative has opened up many ways of life and reduced the potential risk of foreign energy export sanctions. As of November 20, 2021, China has signed 206 belt and road cooperation documents with 141 countries and 32 international organizations.
Give full play to the mainland's super-large-scale market advantages and domestic demand potential, and build a new development pattern in which domestic and international dual cycles promote each other, which is a measure taken to prevent foreign trade under the epidemic, the mainland can achieve a balance between supply and demand by its own physical strength, even if there is anti-globalization, we can also be safe and self-protected.
In fact, the two important indicators of the mainland's total social output and total domestic procurement have quietly surpassed the United States to become the world's first, which means that the mainland has become the world's largest single domestic demand market. According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2021, China's total import and export volume exceeded $6 trillion for the first time.
Three. From building a sound industrial chain to a multi-level financing system
The industrial structure of the mainland is relatively perfect, the proportion of agriculture, industry and service industry is relatively balanced, and most of the upstream, middle and downstream suppliers of each industrial chain can achieve localization, realize the whole life cycle layout, and achieve independent control in production and manufacturing, research and development design, brand market and other links.
At present, the scale of continental steel accounts for half of the world; in the field of intermediate products such as parts and components, the mainland exports account for 20% of the world; in terms of equipment, the mainland accounts for one-third of the world; in the field of final consumer goods, the mainland's production capacity is more prominent, such as mobile phones, computers, color TV production accounts for 90%, 90% and more than 70% of the total global output, ranking first in the world.
The mainland's financial market has not been fully opened, and there is also restrictive access for foreign capital, which is also a kind of self-protection, which can effectively prevent the destructive penetration of foreign capital and greatly maintain the stability of the financial system. With the establishment and improvement of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Beijing Stock Exchange, the financing security of mainland enterprises can also be basically guaranteed.
At this stage, the number of listed companies in China's capital market exceeds 4100, and the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen has continuously achieved breakthroughs, as of December 30, 2020, the total market value of Shanghai and Shenzhen has reached 80 trillion yuan, and the turnover has reached 122.84 trillion yuan, of which foreign capital accounts for only 4.6%. At present, the total market capitalization of the Shanghai Stock Exchange has ranked third in the world, second only to the New York Stock Exchange and NASDAQ.
Four. From huge foreign exchange reserves to the internationalization of the renminbi
Keeping the RMB exchange rate in a reasonable range is related to whether the mainland's import and export trade activities can be carried out steadily. On the one hand, it has huge foreign exchange reserves to ensure the steady operation of the economy; on the other hand, it adopts appropriate trade policies and monetary policies, actively promotes the internationalization of the renminbi, continuously extends the application scenarios of the renminbi, reduces China's dependence on the US dollar, and then reduces the impact of US monetary policy on China.
As of the end of December 2021, the size of the mainland's foreign exchange reserves was US$3,250.2 billion, an increase of US$33.678 billion over the previous year, the third consecutive year of increase, and a six-year high. According to the latest data from the Institute of Financial Telecommunication for Banks worldwide (SWIFT), in December 2021, the renminbi's share of international payments rose from 2.14% in November to 2.70%, surpassing the yen to climb to fourth and ranking among the top four active currencies in the world.
Five. From passively joining the game to actively setting the rules of the game
What role a country can play in the international arena is determined by the country's comprehensive national strength. As China becomes the world's second-largest economy, we also have the opportunity to transform from a participant in the game to a game maker, and organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the BRICS countries, the Belt and Road Initiative, and the AIIB are all the fruits of cooperation. As China's circle of friends grows larger, the stronger our resistance to external risks becomes.
The Russian-Ukrainian incident has taught us a thrilling lesson as to whether China can afford it if we swap roles with Russia. Facts have proved that only by carefully evaluating and analyzing to make up for shortcomings can self-reliance and self-reliance stand firm in the vicissitudes of the times; only the deeper the integration into the world economy and the greater the contribution, the more confident we will be in speaking.