20220304 meat is quite a lot of news [turn]
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【Eight major brokerage company theme strategies: strategic optimism about medicine! The bottom configuration is a good opportunity? Minsheng Securities said that at the current point in time, we are strategically optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry, and under the favorable rotation of the index adjustment in place, the crowded digestion of positions, the return of valuation to high cost performance, the landing of emotional worries and the wave of performance stock performance, the bottom configuration opportunity of the pharmaceutical industry has arrived.
Daily theme strategy discussion, Oriental Wealth Network summarizes the views of eight major securities companies, reveals the current situation of the industry, observes the market trend, and takes the pulse of A shares for you in advance.
Minsheng Securities: The current point in time strategy is optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry! The bottom configuration opportunity is here
At the current point in time, we are strategically optimistic about the pharmaceutical industry, and under the favorable rotation of the index adjustment in place, the crowded digestion of positions, the return of valuation to high cost performance, the landing of emotional worries and the wave of performance stock performance, the bottom configuration of the pharmaceutical industry has arrived. Specific to the direction of investment, we believe that 1) welcome: first pay attention to the new track and new leaders: "life science industry chain", "cell gene therapy", etc.; 2) high prosperity: secondly, pay attention to the track where the high prosperity is still continuing: "CDMO", "pharmaceutical service CXO", "high-end medical equipment"; 3) cost performance: layout of low valuation + fundamentals are expected to reverse the plate - "Chinese medicine", "API" and "blood products".
Huaan Securities: Traditional Chinese medicine + medical equipment + scientific research reagents and other directions from the bottom up to find the target
The direction of this year's annual allocation: Chinese medicine (policy friendliness + low valuation) + medical equipment (medical infrastructure) + scientific research reagents and upstream and other directions from the bottom up to find the target; the new crown small molecule drug has contributed enough flexible performance for CDMO companies, it is recommended to pay attention to Boteng shares, Gloria Ying and other targets. We recommend the following investment ideas: (1) Chinese medicine sector: brand precious OTC + Chinese medicine innovative drugs + Chinese medicine chain, we recommend: Xintian Pharmaceutical, Guizhou Sanli, China Resources Sanjiu, Jianmin Group, Gushengtang and other targets, but also recommend attention: Tongrentang, Yiling Pharmaceutical, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Tasly, Fangsheng Pharmaceutical, Teyi Pharmaceutical, Guilin Sanjin, Shouxian Valley, Guangyuyuan, Katazai and other targets.
(2) Medical infrastructure sector: We recommend paying attention to Mindray Medical, Kaili Medical, Aohua Endoscopy, Libang Instrument, Yuyue Medical, Xiangyu Medical, Weisi Medical, Sanxin Medical, etc., in addition, the IVD plate will actually benefit from medical infrastructure, recommended to pay attention to new industries, Yahuilong, Antu Biologics, Pumen Technology, Mike Bio, Perspective Life, Wanfu Biology, etc., IVD enterprises play an important role in epidemic prevention and control (antibodies, antigens and nucleic acid detection reagents), which provides sufficient funds for the development of the company in the future.
(3) Scientific research reagents and upstream, etc.: We propose to pay attention to Novizan, Nano Micro Technology, Baipuss, Titan Technology, Aladdin, Jiete Biological, Dongfulong, Concentrating Technology, Chutian Technology, Tailin Biology, Nanmo Biology, etc.
(4) Other bottom-up sectors and companies need to be analyzed according to the target and valuation of the industry and the company, and it is proposed to pay attention to: Zhenghai Biology (active biological bone approval), Maipu Medicine (advantages of 3D printing manufacturing process in non-animal-derived consumables) and other targets in the regenerative medicine sector; the valuation of the medical service sector is low, we recommend Hygia and Gushengtang, which have a strong cost performance and expansion, and recommend paying attention to Aier Ophthalmology, Chaoju Ophthalmology, Jinxin Reproduction, etc.; biological products, vaccines plate need continuous attention, We recommend Zhifei Biology, Baike Biologics, it is recommended to pay attention to Watson Biological, CanSino, Oulin Biological, Wantai Biological, etc.; household medical devices, it is recommended to pay attention to Yuyue Medical, Kefu Medical.
(5) In addition, in the innovative drug sector, it is recommended to pay attention to innovative drug targets with international capabilities, and we recommend paying attention to Hengrui Pharmaceutical, BeiGene, Junshi Biological, Beida Pharmaceutical, Hehuang Pharmaceutical, Kangfang Biological, China Biopharmaceutical, etc.
Guosheng Securities: Medicine has entered the layout range! Can be moderately optimistic Short- and medium-term is still bottom-up
Medicine has entered the layout range, can be moderately optimistic, short-term and medium-term is still from the bottom up. The adjustment of medicine to the present, the "double high problem" has been significantly solved, and the conditions for bottoming out and rebounding have been met. In the short and medium term, the market has not actually found a clear main line, oversold rebound may become the strongest direction of the stage, our idea is to choose stocks from the bottom up, summed up with three points: 1) choose stocks with "fundamental common sense valuation overslagging discount", in other words, it is the second-order guide that has fallen to the irrational valuation range, which can look at the overall killing of obvious pharmaceutical science and technology, as well as high recognition & chip structure clean stocks. 2) Dig into individual stocks that report high growth in the quarter or may exceed expectations, which can be combined with the previous oversold situation. 3) Select the subdivision of "domestic demand policy immunization" and "external demand rigidity", which is to consider the comprehensive impact of the current geopolitical environment and the medical policy environment, especially the emotional impact. Such as independent controllability, domestic new crown therapeutic drug industry chain, traditional Chinese medicine, adult class II vaccines, rehabilitation, CDMO, etc.
AVIC Securities: Reaffirming the investment opportunities in the COVID-19 oral medicine industry chain
According to the announcement and annual report released by Pfizer, Paxlovid's single course of treatment is priced at $529, and it is expected that in 2022, the revenue of new crown oral drugs will reach 22 billion US dollars, and the new crown oral drugs as the last piece of the puzzle in the current new crown treatment industry chain have broad market prospects. In addition to the innovation expectations given by enterprises directly involved in the research and development of new crown oral drugs, the mainland CXO industry chain has a complete integrated chain, with obvious cost and efficiency advantages, and the order announcements issued by some companies have also confirmed our previous views. In the short term, it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the research and development of small molecule drugs of the new crown, and at the same time, we can pay attention to the listed companies that are deeply involved in the supply chain of new crown prevention and control drugs, including Junshi Bio-U, Boteng Shares and Gloria Ying.
Everbright Securities: Combing the development of the whole industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine, nuggeting 4 major subdivisions
Combing the development context of the whole industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine, digging gold 4 major subdivisions. Upstream: control the source, adhere to the bottom line, and strengthen the quality control of the whole process. Midstream: Restrict and standardize the registration and use of Chinese medicine injections, collect and develop proprietary Chinese medicines at the same time, and focus on supporting Chinese medicine formula granules and innovative Chinese medicine drugs. Downstream: Strengthen the construction of traditional Chinese medicine departments and talent training, promote the development of traditional Chinese medicine medical services, promote cultural dissemination and traditional Chinese medicine to go to sea, and medical insurance support policies to boost the overall situation. We are optimistic about 4 major subdivisions: brand proprietary Chinese medicine OTC benefits from the industry's production capacity clearance and terminal price increase, the advantages of leading enterprises are highlighted, and the industry concentration is improved. The pilot of Traditional Chinese medicine formula granules ended, the 10 billion market welcomed 1-2 times the expansion, and the filing system and the new national standard built high industry barriers. The inflection point of new Chinese medicine drugs has arrived, the pace of registration review has accelerated, and it is expected to be prioritized for inclusion in medical insurance to achieve the release. The results of the new crown epidemic prevention are remarkable, and the process of Chinese medicine going abroad / internationalization is expected to change from integration into the international medical system to the actual harvest period.
From the perspective of investment advice, the Chinese medicine industry has ushered in a golden period of development and nuggeted investment opportunities in the industrial chain. In the long run, under the background of population aging, disease spectrum changes, national top-level policy support, and vigorous promotion of internationalization, the growth space of the Traditional Chinese medicine industry is huge. We judge that in 2022, the Chinese medicine industry is expected to usher in an upward inflection point under the support of policies and medical insurance, the inheritance and development of traditional Chinese medicine enterprises, the Chinese medicine formula granule industry embraces market expansion and standard improvement, the innovative chinese medicine drugs are accelerated to be approved for inclusion in medical insurance, and the Chinese medicine goes to sea at the right time, waiting for performance to be cashed in and value revaluation. It is recommended to pay attention to 5 types of Chinese medicine investment opportunities: 1) brand chinese proprietary medicines: Tongrentang, Panzai, Taiji Group, Zhongxin Pharmaceutical, Lingrui Pharmaceutical, Yiling Pharmaceutical, Jianmin Group, Yunnan Baiyao, etc.; 2) Chinese medicine formula granules: China Chinese Medicine (H) (parent company of Taiji Group), Hongri Pharmaceutical, China Resources Sanjiu, etc.; 3) Innovative Chinese medicine drugs: Yiling Pharmaceutical, Tasly, Kangyuan Pharmaceutical, Xintian Pharmaceutical, etc.; 4) Chinese medicine to the sea/Internationalization: Tongrentang, Katazai Zhen, Yiling Pharmaceutical, Tasly, etc.; 5) Chinese medicine diagnosis and treatment: Gushengtang (H). ), Tongrentang.
Capital Securities: Firmly optimistic! CXO companies are still at a high level of prosperity and historically low valuations
CXO companies are still in a high degree of prosperity, valuations are at a historically low level, and they are firmly optimistic. We believe that pharmaceutical outsourcing services CXO is a rare high-growth segment in the pharmaceutical industry, benefiting from the strong demand for drug research and development at home and abroad and the increase in the outsourcing rate of R&D and production, and there is still a lot of room for improvement in service penetration. Judging from the announced 2021 performance report and performance forecast, most CXO companies have a net profit growth rate of more than 40%, and from the current order situation, 2022 can still continue to grow rapidly. At present, the valuation of CXO companies is at a historic low, with the gradual elimination of overseas policy disturbances, the performance of CXO companies is gradually cashed in, and the valuation is expected to usher in a repair, we focus on CRO: WuXi AppTec, Kanglong Chemical, Tigermed, CDMO: Gloria Young, Boteng shares.
Zheshang Securities: Key recommended performance is expected to enter a new round of acceleration of CDMO
CDMO whose performance is expected to enter a new round of acceleration: 1) CDMO leaders WuXi AppTec and Gloria Ingen enter the funnel effect redemption period. 2) CDMO with continuous construction of capabilities and expected continuous improvement of profitability: Kanglong Chemical (CMC expands to CDMO), Boteng shares (CRO extends to CMO), Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (the proportion of CDMO continues to increase), Yaoshi Technology (extended from CRO to CDMO), etc. Clinical CRO: Tigermed, a clinical CR leader in the transition of international capabilities. Preclinical CRO: Benefiting from the Chinese market dividend and the proportion of business with higher profitability: WuXi AppTec (safety assessment and bioanalysis business), Kanglong Chemical (biological science business), Zhaoyan New Drug (safety assessment), Medici, Fangda Holdings, etc.
Guojin Securities: The medical sector is expected to usher in an important window of opportunity in 2022Q1-Q2
The market has entered a performance window period, and the bottom of the medical sector has rebounded clearly. We believe that the medical sector 2022Q1-Q2 is expected to usher in an important window of opportunity, this judgment is based on the following reasons: 1) the market entered the annual report and the first quarter performance window, the performance of the pharmaceutical sector is good, and the growth value is expected to be recognized by the market; 2) the medical insurance policies such as collection/cost control are expected to be gradually digested by the market, the excessive pessimism in the early stage is expected to be corrected, the long-term growth value of the medical sector still exists, and the policy's encouragement policy for pharmaceutical innovation and private medical care is still clear; 3) The normalization of the epidemic prevention and control situation is clear and further controlled, and the recovery of medical care and the repair of conventional needs in the hospital are the main themes of the growth of the pharmaceutical sector; 4) the valuation has dropped significantly, and the current cost performance of the medical sector is outstanding.
Under the current situation, it is recommended to strengthen the configuration and layout of the medical sector, focusing on cost-effective growth sectors such as medical devices, traditional Chinese medicine, conventional in vitro diagnosis, pharmacies, and growth hormone in the hospital.
Source: Oriental Wealth Research Center