Editor's Note:
The three major indexes opened collectively lower in Early Friday and then continued their volatility. In the afternoon, the three major indexes bottomed out and rebounded rapidly, with the index falling 1.6% at one point and the Shanghai index falling 1% at one point. At the end of the session, the index recovered slightly again. As of the close, the Shanghai index reported 3447.65 points, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen component index closed at 13020 points, down 1.37%; the ChiNext index closed at 2978.64 points, down 1.55%.
On Friday, the market showed a pattern of low opening and low walking; and from the perspective of the week's trend, the A-share Shanghai Composite Index was also resistant to falling, and the week closed with a doji candlestick. How to understand the trend of the market? And what sector opportunities are worth paying attention to? Wolf Shuai yesterday live paste plate with the trend, dry goods full, worth a look!
Chen Hao
The market trend is basically within our expectations in front, that is, a variety of reasons before the Spring Festival constitute a pre-holiday effect, fake fall, after the Spring Festival can be stabilized, slowly recovery index, but in the plate is more troublesome - I brushed today, the famous plate is not good-looking. Overall, in sectors and stocks, we need to give institutions one to two quarters of time. Because the previous way of thinking has broken the relevant stocks, it takes a while to sort it out.
Market analysis
Then the new way of thinking requires the mutual friction between institutions and some consensus, not to say that you have money and you hundreds of billions of fund managers believe. In general, the run-in can be seen to the end of March, the second quarter is basically run-in, and the third quarter should be the meal quarter of A shares. In previous years, the most unfavorable is the third quarter, but this year's market may continue to shift to the second and third quarters, or there will be a wave of structured meals within the third quarter. That's my prediction.
For some sectors with poor trends, it can be understood that due to the high expectations of this sector before, resulting in short-term local net profits, then some profit-taking plates and small and medium-sized institutions have dragged down the entire sector. The appeal at the time of the restart is not strong for the time being, so the future of the entire sector should be roughly a few quarters of shock and downturn. That is to say, the map is broken, and then everyone does not cut the meat, but if the rebound is quick to return to the original, this time it is necessary to have a very appealing reason to fool the institution into taking over the baton. There are some sectors that can do this, such as the lithium battery sector in the past, institutions are taken at a high level; if the institution is not willing to take it at a high level, it can only wait for the investors of this stubble to completely give up this stock, change a group of new people, there is no history of the lock, so that there will be more opportunities.
Sector analysis
Let's turn over the main plate and use the 20-day power line to arrange the order. Starting from the sector in the front of the power line, such as the strength of non-ferrous metals, it is because cyclical stocks have been recognized by institutions in this wave of short-term and medium-term, which may even have something to do with Ukraine, in this case, commodities began to have some bull market. Pay attention to the fertilizer and pesticide plate is a bit interesting, and agriculture-related, may wish to pay more attention to it.
Then there is the national defense and military industry, and the enthusiasm of the current institutions for the military industry sector has cooled down a bit and the tide has receded, for your reference. The Chinese medicine sector can not be depressed, because the institution is buying, I can understand this.
Coal mining, energy-related recently are relatively strong, is completely to hype this sector! Its average P/E ratio is ten times and its price-to-book ratio is 1.35 times, and institutions are currently too enthusiastic in this sector. So we would say that the old energy plus cycle is the hot spot this week.
The animal husbandry sector is the focus of this institutional allocation and deserves attention. Can you understand the automotive sector by looking at the map? In the auto sector, certain institutions are retreating, and this hot spot may be cutting leeks.
Let's first look at the main line of the big order, and then look at the online flat and offline sideways according to the cost moving average. According to my theory, online sideways, especially inverse bear markets, is a sign of the main control; but offline sideways you have to be careful that the main force escapes. Some people say that they have fallen so much, what goods did the main force produce? Do you know that when it is high, it is retail shipments, and the main shipments are always relatively low - such as a stock doubling and doubling and then rebounding. As soon as the rebound began, the retail investors chased and the main force left. That is to say, the main force can neither copy the tip to the end, nor can it sell the tip of the top.