How hot the recent Russo-Ukrainian war was, everyone who surfed the Internet with high intensity was deeply touched. After watching more related news, many people will wonder - Ukraine was once the second strongest of the Soviet Union's member states, and ukraine also received a large amount of family property when the Soviet Union collapsed, how can it be so bad after thirty years, the economy is tired, the country is in civil war, and now it is fighting with Russia, which was originally a brother country?
The streets of the capital have become like this (Kiev, March 2, Photo: shutterstock)
The reason for all this is, on the one hand, the legacy of the Cold War and the partition of the Soviet Union, and on the other hand, the continuous sale of domestic production and political speculation by ukrainian traitors and oligarchs. This very young country was supposed to be trembling and walking on thin ice between the United States and Russia, but unfortunately lacked a leadership that really considered the country's long-term future.
This is not the fourth season of "Servant of the People", nor is it the advanced version of "Truman's World", but a war crisis related to millions of people
(Photo: Shutterstock)
Just as the so-called frozen three feet is not a day's cold, ukraine's revival and decay in the past thirty years, tenacity and degeneration, are the themes we want to talk about today.
The legacy of the USSR
On December 25, 1991, with Gorbachev's speech, the red flag over the Kremlin was lowered and the Soviet Union officially disintegrated. Ukraine, second only to Russia in the alliance, received a rich heritage, especially industrial and military heritage.
"I ceased my activities as President of the SOVIET Union", the departure of one person represented the fall of a vast republic, George H. W. Bush's promise is nothing more than a placebo (Photo: Youtube)
Ukraine's inherited territory has unique advantages - the Eastern Donbass region is rich in coal resources, from the time of Tsarist Russia to the present, it is an industrial powerhouse; plus Ukraine itself is adjacent to the Black Sea, and also has the Crimean Peninsula and Sevastopol, which can easily join the international division of labor; and even Western Ukraine, which is relatively scarce in resources, can become the big granary of Europe with a large black soil belt and mature mechanized farming.
One of the four major black soil regions in the world is the Ukrainian Plain
Mineral resources are rich in variety and considerable reserves, the basic conditions are very superior, please look at the horizontal screen
It is precisely by relying on this left-hand grain, right-handed steel, and a warm water port advantage that Ukraine was a key investment area of the state during the Soviet period and built a large number of ace military enterprises.
For example, the only aircraft carrier assembly plant in the Soviet Union, the Nikolayev Shipyard, was built here, the predecessor of the "Liaoning" aircraft carrier, the Varyag. The Southern Machinery Factory, known for its ballistic missiles, Madasic, which specializes in the production of advanced aero engines, and the Antonov Design Bureau, which produces the World's largest transport aircraft, the An-225. Now, the world's largest and only transport aircraft, the An-225, has been destroyed by war, and one of the great wonders in the history of the human aviation industry has been frozen.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, about 1/3 of these star military enterprises, as well as about 1/3 of the Soviet Union's vast arsenal, remained in Ukraine.
According to statistics, Ukraine took over an army of 220,000 people after the collapse of the Soviet Union, plus 30% of the Black Sea Fleet, 4800 tanks, 500 helicopters, including strategic bombers, 1,000 aircraft, its combat strength in the member countries second only to Russia, the world's third.
The inherited strong family property, as long as it has been slightly operated in recent years, its military strength can still lean forward in the world ranking
(Photo: wiki&shutterstock)
In addition, Ukraine maintained nearly one-third of the Soviet Union's nuclear arsenal, including 1,700 nuclear warheads and a full range of intercontinental ballistic missiles and silos.
The SS-18 intercontinental ballistic missile, which NATO called "Satan" and once shocked the United States, was designed and manufactured by Ukraine's South Machinery Manufacturing Plant, and Ukraine also inherited it, and wanted to sell it when the economy was not good... (Photo: wiki)
What intercontinental missiles, Tupolev bombers all cut, dismantled, the first country in history to voluntarily renounce the use of strategic nuclear weapons
(Photo: wiki)
Leaving Russia and entering the European Union ultimately failed
With complete industry and agriculture, nuclear weapons, and an area equivalent to 6 Jiangsu provinces, according to Chinese's idea, Ukraine should be a regional power no matter how badly mixed. But in fact, its vast industrial system has been severely weakened, and its military legacy is a heavy burden.
In 1981, the Soviet Union invited NATO members other than the United States to watch an unprecedented military parade, and the deterrent of steel was far more powerful than the agreement
It should be known that the industry of the Soviet Union is a highly planned economy, and the operation of the factory needs to be planned as a whole, and the division of labor is also scattered in the member countries. After independence, Ukraine pursued a radical privatization line, and the compradors and oligarchs took advantage of the opportunity to embezzle state-owned assets, and the original production system was seriously damaged.
The Soviet Union itself was like a large machine that needed the unified mobilization of the central system, and once the central system collapsed, it was difficult for the branches to play to the extreme.
The huge army and nuclear arsenal need huge funds to maintain, which is a great power heavy weapon that the Soviet Union can afford to maintain, and it is useless in the hands of Ukraine, leaving only the cost.
It is difficult to make the best use of things and people, and it is obvious that Ukraine does not have such capabilities and can only be used as a decoration
(Kiev Mother Mother Monument Photo: shutterstock)
It was in this chaos that, from 1991 to 2000, in less than 10 years, Ukraine lost more than 60% of ITS GDP, and the people suffered more than 10,000% inflation, soaring prices, rampant corruption, and people protesting in the streets for three days, which was the direct cause of the Ukrainian color revolution and the prevalence of street politics.
Since independence, Ukraine's per capita GDP has declined all the way, until 2000 began to pick up, the result was hit several times, India is "steady and steady", surpassing Ukraine is only a matter of time
It was not until after 2000 that Ukraine finally took a breath and began to gradually achieve economic recovery and growth. Similarly, the former Soviet union brothers have also come out of a terrible decade, including the boss Russia, but this also means that the geopolitical situation is quietly changing, Russia wants to seek a revival of its great power status and restore its influence in Eastern Europe, but this is a direct conflict with NATO's eastward expansion.
From Gorbachev to Yeltsin to Putin, they all had more or less illusions about drawing Russia and NATO closer, and the Russia-NATO Council, which has been established for nearly 20 years, has also been reduced to a decoration in the inability to reach consensus again and again.
At the time of the collapse of the Soviet Union, Yeltsin was assured that NATO would never expand eastward, but in the following ten years, nato's eastward expansion did not stop, directly pushing to the three Baltic countries - Poland - Romania, almost to the face of Russia, which made Yeltsin and Putin, who were once pro-American, feel a huge crisis, and had to turn their positions to the United States, which also meant that Ukraine at Russia's doorstep became the first line of confrontation between east and west. So, what about the attitude of Ukraine?
There are only two brothers between Russia and NATO, and time has passed, whether they are in the same vendetta or parting ways, And Belarus and Ukraine have given different answers.
The third way is to never recover
We know that political order is a prerequisite for economic development, and when the political order changes, it needs to be adjusted to adapt to the new environment.
Ukraine has before it two already successful paths, one is the Polish path, that is, either side that is completely tilted towards Russia or NATO, working closely together on economic and security matters. One is the Finnish path, which is independent of the policy of neutralization at the national level.
Finland has profound lessons for the Soviet Union, and it has also profound lessons for Finland. Both sides understand each other's needs and know where the bottom line is
After Trump took office, the first official meeting with Putin was chosen in Helsinki, Finland (Photo: wiki)
Theoretically, if Ukraine firmly chooses one of these paths, it can live its small life well - if it takes the Polish route, although it is limited by geography, it will most likely turn to Russia, but Russia will certainly not be treated badly; if it takes the Finnish route, then as a bridge between Russia and Central European countries, doing trade can also earn a middleman price difference.
Of course, Poland must be toward NATO in terms of geography, history, and popular sentiment (Poles welcoming Trump Photo: wiki)
Worse still, Ukraine chose the third route that brought poverty and war to the country. That is, swinging back and forth between the east and the west, being a wall rider, this poor strategy has a lot to do with the oligarchy of Ukraine: with the exception of the first president, Kravchuk, we count the successive Ukrainian presidents, either relying on nepotism to obtain oligarchy support, or simply the oligarchs themselves.
What would it be like for the 88-year-old, the 88-year-old president who experienced the collapse of the Soviet Union, successfully navigated between NATO and Russia, and tried to avoid conflict?
Kuchma, the second President of Ukraine, who was re-elected from 1994 to 2005, was elected president with the support of the Dnipropetrovsk oligarchs and quietly pro-Russian in a left-right vacillation.
Yushchenko, the third president from 2005 to 2010, was the biggest supporter of the campaign was the gas oligarch Tymoshenko — Yushchenko and Tymoshenko set off the Orange Revolution to "win" the election, pro-American and pro-European and anti-Russian, and the political and economic crisis during his presidency was very serious - the two later parted ways over interests. Yushchenko backed by the financial oligarchy in western Ukraine and stands pro-European and anti-Russian, while Tymoshenko represents the interests of the energy oligarchy in central Ukraine, swinging left and right, waiting for the price to sell.
Yanukovych, who came to power in 2010, was himself an industrial oligarch in eastern Ukraine with a pro-Russian and anti-European stance, and was ousted from power in the 2014 color revolution, an event that was a concentrated outbreak of internal contradictions between the east and west of Ukraine, followed by the Crimean crisis, and the de facto civil war in eastern Ukraine, which became a rehearsal of today's Russo-Ukrainian war eight years ago.
In this revolution, there is an element of hoping for a bright future in Ukraine, and an element that is only for anti-Russia, expanding the European Union and the influence of the United States in Ukraine.
(2014 protest Photo: wiki)
Poroshenko, the fifth president after Yanukovych, is an oligarch in the food industry in western Ukraine, and although he barely did it until 2019, he was equally unpopular.
"Ask yourself, I came to power just to make money and open the way" (Photo: shutterstock)
In the economic decay of the Ukrainian people have been extremely disappointed in politicians, elected the actor Zelenskiy, people hope that he can really be a servant of the people in "Servant of the People", although on the surface is a political amateur, but in fact, the driving force behind Zelenskiy is the Ukrainian media and oil oligarch Kolomoyski, Zelenskiy can defeat Poroshenko, but also inseparable from the media tycoon's overwhelming public opinion offensive.
Since childhood, he has loved acting, loved Zelenskiy standing in front of the stage, and must have a deep understanding of "life is like a play, drama is like life"
(Photo: Servant of the People)
Kolomoisky, whose tv channel aired Servant of the People, was also one of the patrons of camp Azov, according to Al Jazeera
(Photo: Shutterstock)
In addition to dividing up their own interests, this series of oligarchs also introduced foreign forces and used national interests as a bet to catch and kill. The small ukrainian boat also swayed from side to side with the policies formulated by the oligarchs based on their own selfish desires.
Ukraine has only spent about 30 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union, this very young country has spent 10 years to gradually get out of the chaos and recession after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but its oligarchy does not have the ability to be responsible to the country for a long time and maintain policy continuity, as a result of the change in the environment, it has brought up Ukraine's internal contradictions, and in 2014 evolved into a public rupture, and finally became a chessboard for great powers, causing today's disaster.
For Ukrainians, especially in eastern Ukraine, the flames of war have long been ignited.
(2014 Kiev & Donetsk Photo: wiki)
It can be seen from this that the country under the control of the comprador and oligarchic class, even if the conditions are good and the family foundation is thick, is very fragile and cannot escape the fate of decay.
Before the war between Russia and Ukraine, 96 of ukraine's top 100 richest people had already fled, and the remaining 4 were still unable to run because of a case. In the end, they sell their ancestral property and the mess left by foreign countries, or they still have to let ordinary Ukrainian civilians pay for it. Oligarchs' assets account for nearly a third of Ukraine's GDP, and it is indeed difficult for the government to revitalize the country's economy.
Some people say that the Russo-Ukrainian War is Russia's last chance to let go, and some people say that it is another masterpiece of the United States kidnapping Europe, but few people can say what this is for Ukrainians, after all, this is still a complex group with a vague face, whether it is portrayed as a consensus-building battle or a battle to find their own mothers, Ukraine's strategic choice space is very small.
Hopefully, this is really the end of a decade of turmoil, not the beginning of another decade of turmoil.