Now that the eighth day of the Russo-Ukrainian war has passed, what is the new development in the situation? Let's summarize it.
- The Offensive of the Russian Army slowed down, but still achieved some success.
At present, the fastest progress is made by the Russian army on the southern front. On March 3, the Ukrainian side admitted that the strategic city of Kherson in southern Ukraine was completely controlled by Russian troops. It was the first major Ukrainian city occupied by Russian troops since the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War. The mayor of Kherson, Igor Kolykhayev, confirmed to Western media that he had handed over power to the Russian army. The Russian army is working on the ground to form a military occupation management body.
The russian army entering Kherson is the picture
On the other hand, the mayor of Mariupol, a Ukrainian port city on the coast of the Sea of Azov north of the Black Sea, said the situation there was getting worse. Russian troops have surrounded it and launched a fierce attack. The occupation of Mariupol would completely resolve the security of the two declared independent republics of eastern Ukraine, which would completely open up the land route between western Russia and Crimea.
On the Surface of the Black Sea, at least eight large landing ships of the Russian Navy are fully loaded with troops, eyeing the western Ukrainian seaport city of Odessa. On the first day of the war, there was news that the Russian army launched an amphibious landing in Odessa, but it turned out to be false news. At present, the situation in Odessa is relatively calm, and in order to prevent the Russian army from landing in Odessa, the Ukrainian army has laid mines on the beach.
Russian naval fleet cruising on the Black Sea
Russian forces on the northern front are currently making slow progress. In Kharkov to the northeast, russian and Ukrainian armies engaged in a fierce exchange of fire, and the Russian occupation of Kharkov progressed rather slowly. Although the Russian army launched a wide-scale penetration at the beginning of the war and surrounded Kharkov, the progress quickly slowed down after entering the offensive phase. The russian army's early strategy seemed to be to trigger the collapse of the Ukrainian army with a large-scale interspersed encirclement, but at present it did not have any effect, so it could only enter a brutal battle, which was bound to bring serious casualties and destruction.
The fierce battle of Kharkov continued
The Russian army north of Kiev fell silent for several days after the astonishing interspersed propulsion and eye-catching large-scale air assault operations in the early days of the war. On the whole, the encirclement of Kiev has been formed, but the Russian army has not launched a direct offensive battle against Kiev. The Russian army has now become a "strange steel giant", perhaps as the Western media said, because of the local weather in Ukraine and muddy roads, resulting in problems with fuel logistics and had to be suspended. It is also possible that the group is waiting for progress on the Eastern Front, and will launch a fatal blow on Kiev after the Russians in the east and the south have completed the encirclement of the main Ukrainian heavy mobile corps.
Kiev television station was attacked
However, at present, it seems that the encirclement of eastern Ukraine, which is widely expected by the outside world, is still more than 300 kilometers between the north and south road groups of the Russian army in the eastern region, and it is facing the Ukrainian army dominated by Neo-Nazis and extremist ethnic elements in Ukraine, these troops are extremely fanatical, and they will never easily abandon their positions on the battlefield, and the Russian army will certainly carry out street-by-street competition to eliminate them. However, the elimination of these forces is itself one of the main goals of Russia's military operation.
The Russian military also announced its casualties for the first time on March 3, with a total of 498 Russian soldiers killed and 1,597 wounded, for a total of 2,095. The Russians did not announce the number of prisoners, but because the Russians were on the offensive, the number of prisoners should not be very large. Even so, the 8-day war has caused the Russian army to lose the equivalent of a whole regiment, which is still much higher than the psychological expectations of the outside world before the war.
Many people compare the losses of the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan with it, thinking that the gap between the Russian army is too big! In fact, such a comparison is not objective. The enemies faced by the US military in Iraq and Afghanistan are too weak and small, that is, the level of guerrillas, and the advantages are too obvious, so the US military has fought in these "public order wars" and the losses are unlikely to be large. Russia is facing a regular army supported by the entire Western system, and is fighting a conventional war with heavy firepower. Not only is there no generation gap in the level of equipment, but in terms of combat system and intelligence and electronic warfare, due to the support of Western countries, it also has an advantage over the Russian army, so the casualties of the Russian army this time are the real casualties of modern conventional warfare, and the casualties of the US military security war cannot be compared with it.
- The West stepped up its military aid to Ukraine
Over the past few days, Western arms exports to Ukraine have been accelerating. For the first time, the United States agreed to direct military assistance to Ukraine, that is, no longer transfer weapons and equipment through third parties, but directly transferred equipment to the Ukrainian army by the US military. In the past few days, the United States has shipped hundreds of "Stinger" anti-aircraft missiles to the Ukrainian army to help the Ukrainian army regain air supremacy on the battlefield. At the same time, the Spanish government also announced on March 2 that it would send a batch of offensive weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, including machine guns and grenade launchers and corresponding ammunition. The German military also announced that it will soon hand over to the Ukrainian army 1,700 individual anti-aircraft missiles left over from the early East German army, but these missiles have been stored for nearly 30 years, and whether they can still be used normally is a big problem.
It is not unusual for the Ukrainian side to announce that 16,000 volunteers will enter Ukraine to help fight. The special forces and mercenaries of Western countries have long secretly infiltrated the Ukrainian region to help the Ukrainian army fight, this time only to make it public. As for these mercenaries and volunteers, the Russian side has publicly stated that once captured, they will not be given prisoners of war status, will not be protected by the Vienna Convention, and are likely to be shot directly! Then whether these people are organized formed units or indeed volunteers, they must think twice!
Ukrainian Army Infographic
However, European countries also have different voices on the issue of military aid to Ukraine, Hungary announced that it will not supply weapons to Ukraine, and also prohibited any vehicles or aircraft transporting weapons to Ukraine from passing through Hungarian territory and airspace. A few days ago, it was rumored that Poland, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries would hand over their MiG fighters to Ukraine, and several countries have also expressed their denials, and it seems that this rumor is just wishful thinking on the Ukrainian side.
As Russia announced a few days ago that its strategic nuclear forces had entered a special state of combat readiness, in order to avoid irritating Russia and triggering miscalculations, the US Department of Defense announced the postponement of a planned "Minuteman III" intercontinental ballistic missile test. The test was a routine test to test the functionality and reliability of the Minuteman III system, but given the current tensions, it was clearly wise to postpone the test. This behavior of the United States also shows that it does not overstate the stimulation of Russia's psychological state.
In addition, two things have happened around Ukraine. Romania, Ukraine's western neighbor, lost two military aircraft yesterday in one fell swoop. The first was the disappearance of an Israeli-modified MiG-21 Lancer after takeoff, followed by the crash of the IAR-330 Jaguar helicopter sent for search and rescue. On the other side, Sweden to the north claimed that four Russian military aircraft, including two Su-27s and two Su-24s, had violated Swedish airspace on the Baltic Sea on March 2. Although these two incidents are not directly related to the war situation in Ukraine, they highlight the continuous escalation and turmoil on the ground caused by the Russo-Ukrainian war.
- The situation of the Ukrainian army is grim, and a second round of negotiations with Russia has begun
Regardless of the speed of the Russian offensive, the defenses of the Ukrainian army were gradually broken and wiped out, almost irreparably. Several brigades on the Donbass front in eastern Ukraine were in fact already under siege, and eventual annihilation was a foregone conclusion. Even if Ukraine were able to harass and ambush Russian troops on a small scale in a local area, it was only a matter of time before the Russian army was absolutely superior in number and strength. Since Ukraine's main clusters were all placed in the eastern Ukrainian region, once these most elite troops were eliminated, Ukraine's capital to resist Russia was completely lost!
The war situation map published by foreign media does not confirm its accuracy and is for reference only
On March 3, the Ukrainian Navy admitted that the flagship of the country's navy, and the only large surface ship on the bow: the U130 "Commander of the Saheidakini Navy", had sunk itself at the Nikolayev anchorage. The strength of the Ukrainian navy is too weak in the face of the Russian navy, and it has little practical effect. Rather than allowing Russia to capture or sink the ship, it was better to sink itself so as not to be used by Russia for propaganda and morale. The 3,100-ton frigate sank, declaring the Ukrainian Navy completely gone!
On March 3, Ukraine and Russia began a second round of talks, and unlike the first, the two sides disputed the location of the talks. The Ukrainian side demanded a change of venue for negotiations in a country that supports itself in order to obtain better publicity results, rather than in Belarus, which supports Russia. However, in the end, the Ukrainian side still failed to achieve its goal, and the negotiations were finally held in Belarus after a delay. Only this time the Ukrainian delegation arrived at the venue in a Polish Air Force S-70I Black Hawk helicopter, while the last negotiation was in a Mi-8 helicopter of the Belarusian Air Force.
In the end, the second negotiation only resolved some humanitarian issues that had nothing to do with the war situation, and the differences between the two sides on the fundamental issues were too great to be discussed. At present, the time is actually more unfavorable to Ukraine, Russia seems to have an iron heart this time, even if it pays a big price, it will push back the steps of western forces, and it will definitely not be easy to stop! As the Russian army gradually expands its achievements on the battlefield, the hole cards in the hands of Ukraine are becoming less and less! The psychological bottom line for Russia to crush Ukraine through its actual superiority on the battlefield will eventually come.