#俄乌战争 #
The fifth cause and effect of the Russo-Ukrainian War
Author: Mast
(i) Ukraine has in fact become a pawn of the great powers, Zeze said: everyone is afraid, no one answers me
Ukraine is in the pivotal position of NATO's eastward expansion, and could have handled relations with Russia, but it was eager to throw itself into the embrace of the West, and unfortunately it has in fact become a tool of NATO and a pawn of the West. Sadly, senior Ukrainian officials are unaware and willing.
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War, the EU and NATO did not make much substantive moves except for the painless sanctions and the provision of military assistance such as weapons by some countries, let alone sending troops to help. White House spokesman Psaki said the United States "will not send troops to Ukraine to fight Russia under any circumstances." Even the United States has this attitude, not to mention the other NATO members.
Thus, Zelenskiy said, "We alone are fighting alone." Who will be with us? Honestly, I didn't see anyone. I asked the leaders of 27 European countries, will Ukraine join NATO? Everyone was scared, and no one answered me. ”
Zelenskiy said that "everyone is afraid", which is true. The main fear of NATO countries is Russia's huge nuclear arsenal, which does not require much explanation. For European countries, there is also a weakness, that is, oil and gas supply, more than 20% of European countries crude oil, more than 30% of natural gas from Russia, especially natural gas, in a short period of time can not find a substitute. If European sanctions escalate, Russia also has the means to counteract.
The leaders of the six Western countries and the European Union issued a joint statement on the 26th, saying that "the selected Russian banks will be excluded from the SWIFT (Global Interbank Financial Telecommunication Association) international settlement system" and ". The sanctions are indeed severe, but the key depends on how many And what kind of Russian banks are selected in the end.
Economic sanctions are often a lose-lose situation. Moreover, the West does not have many means to card the neck of Russia. Therefore, the Western sanctions against Russia are limited, and some of them are made for the public to see, and they cannot be moved. Even Biden said in an interview that "there are no sanctions that can be immediately effective."
Of course, Russia is facing the entire Western world, and even limited sanctions, coupled with the attrition of war, have a great impact on the economy.
(ii) Ukraine has no hope of victory, and the best outcome is to drag the war on, and the longer it drags on, the more advantageous it is
In fact, in the larger picture, European countries are also pawns of the United States. The United States has only invested a small amount of economic and military resources to create trouble through Ukraine, which can contain Russia on the one hand, and can bind or suppress Europe on the other hand, killing two birds with one stone. No matter how the situation in Ukraine evolves, whether it is war or peace, the United States can reap the benefits and make no losses. This, if not a premeditation by the United States, objectively achieves this effect.
For Russia, sooner or later this war will be fought. Only by fighting a war can the issue of Ukraine's accession to NATO be completely eliminated or resolved. As for why play at this time? There doesn't seem to be anything special about the timing, which can only be explained by the fact that Russia is ready. As for the start of the fight at this time, it is because Putin has been forced into the Jedi. This is an exaggeration, because there is still a process for Ukraine to join NATO. Since sooner or later you have to fight, under the premise of preparation, it is better to fight late than early.
Earlier, it was said that the Russian army "took Kiev in 1 and a half hours", and later said that the Russian army "destroyed more than 300 tanks". In fact, fake news on the battlefield is flying all over the place. At present, the war seems to be a bit of a glue, and NATO countries have begun to send arms to Ukraine, of which Poland is the most active.
From russia's point of view, it is best to make a quick decision in the war, quickly end the military operation, and then restart peace negotiations. On the one hand, the best effect in resolving the issue of relations with Ukraine is to support pro-Russian forces and gradually realize Russia's actual control over Ukraine; on the other hand, consultations with the United States and other Western countries can reach an agreement on stopping NATO's eastward expansion. The premise of all this is a quick victory that forces Ukraine to submit.
From the Ukrainian side, there is little hope of victory, and the best result is to drag the war as far as possible, and the longer it drags on, the more advantageous it is. Once dragged into a protracted war, the situation will be reversed and the confidence of the military and civilians will be restored. Whether this can be achieved depends not only on the combat capability of the Russian army, but also on the will to fight of the Ukrainian government and army.
If the war is protracted, there will be subtle changes in the psychology of both sides, with Ukraine gradually taking the initiative and Russia falling into passivity. The outcome of a war is often not entirely calculated from the data of troop strength and firepower. You will not forget the Soviet-Finnish War of that year. Judging from the performance of the three days of the war, the performance of the Russian army seems to be less than expected, while the Ukrainian army is somewhat beyond expectations. For Russia, it is a war that cannot be lost, and the next week's battle will be crucial.
(iii) Post-war Ukraine, with no more than three endings, the Donbass region may be permanently separated
As mentioned earlier, the Russo-Ukrainian War was the result of the confrontation between the east and west of Ukraine. Regardless of the outcome of this war, the blood feud between the two sides has been established, and we may have to face a new Ukraine. In terms of the current situation analysis, post-war Ukraine is nothing more than the following three outcomes:
The first is reunification. For the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, Russia can recognize it or give up recognition. If Ukraine commits not to seek nato again, to adopt a neutral position between the West and Russia, the possibility of reunification is not entirely absent. But only if Ukraine is quickly defeated on the battlefield, The West's power in Ukraine is hit hard, and Russia gets the security it wants.
The second is the division of Ukraine and the separation of the Donbass region from Ukraine. Whether recognized by Ukraine or the international community, both regions will be separated from Ukraine forever. There is a precedent for this: on August 28, 2008, Russia declared itself recognizing the two regions of Georgia, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as independent states. It is incomprehensible that Ukraine recognized and established relations with Abkhazia. The premise of this outcome is that the Russian army cannot win on the battlefield and has to passively withdraw. As a result, Ukraine's relations with the West will be closer, and Russia will have to retreat to the second place.
The third is to maintain the status quo. Russia and Ukraine, under the mediation of the international community, have ceased hostilities and resumed their pre-war status. Then the two sides began protracted negotiations, as had been the case before the war: endless negotiations, endless conflicts, no solution to any problems, and ukraine's accession to NATO was postponed indefinitely. If this is the end, the battle will be fought in vain.
The first outcome is what Russia wants most, and it is also the most beneficial for Ukraine, and it is also acceptable to the West for the time being. The key to this depends on the wisdom of Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian executives. The author believes that as long as the West does not restrain Russia's heart, it will be difficult for Ukraine to have peace and reunification.
A matter of wide concern is that this war has the potential to break the order under the CHARTER of the United Nations. Let's explore that below.
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