Procedurally, Zelenskiy submitted an application to the EU to join the EU. The European Union held a meeting, at which Zelenskiy's generous request was heard, and Ukraine was adopted by the European Union as a candidate country. Can Ukraine celebrate?
No, now the ball is kicked to Ukraine, and Ukraine has to prepare for official accession to the European Union. I think the outlook is not so optimistic, it may not be possible to achieve it in ten years! Here's why:
1. Ukraine joined the European Union during the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the line of fire joined the Union, unless the EU member states directly went to war with Russia, it is impossible. Can the Russo-Ukrainian War be quelled in three months?
2. The contradiction between Ukraine and Hungary includes the problem of language discrimination and exclusion of 150,000 Hungarians in Ukraine, Ukraine's obstruction of Russian-Hungarian natural gas trade, etc. Hungary is one of the 27 member states of the European Union, the EU has repeatedly stressed that joining NATO must be agreed by all member states, will Hungary agree? It is estimated that it will take three years.
3. The GDP of the new member countries is at least 8,000 US dollars per capita, before the Russo-Ukrainian war, ukraine's per capita GDP was 3300 US dollars, which will definitely drop sharply after experiencing the Russo-Ukrainian war, and then, if it wants to reach 8,000 US dollars, it will also triple, estimated to be more than 10 years, otherwise how can the EU accept such an ally that needs the whole union to give crazy blood replenishment?
4. Before joining the pre-abolition military industry and space system, the European Union has long seen the problem of Ukraine, before the war, Ukraine as the Soviet model of the military industrial system, the export of Soviet-style weapons, in the world can be ranked, and even grab China's weapons market. But Ukraine's arms exports, on the contrary, will occupy a position for the Russian market, and it will also crowd out U.S. weapons, which will not only make the United States unhappy, but also make France unhappy. It is even more contrary to the military basis of the EU's collective defense, at least the weapons are not universal. When will Ukraine abolish this vest? It's really impossible to play the golden cicada in front of the praying mantis.
5. Nationalism, Nazis, slander of faith, etc., have almost become external symbols of the Ukrainian state, can Germany tolerate it? Can the German government tolerate it? The German far right can't stand it either. The EU's prohibition of racial discrimination is a hard condition, or the EU, which does not tolerate so many countries and races, immediately fell apart.
6. The problem of the proportion of Ethnic Russians, the complete Ukraine itself will certainly not be able to solve, with the problem into the Eu, the EU will certainly not accept, split and cut, Ukraine will certainly not agree. How long does this take?
7. Ukraine is an oil and gas-poor country, yes, 90% dependent on imports, joined the European Union, will compete with the Nordic share within the European Union, that is ironclad. Not much to say.
8. Turkey, which is also a MEMBER of NATO, is turkey, which is already a NATO country, has applied to join the European Union for 30 years, has not been adopted, and Turkey's policy is inclined to Ukraine, but on this issue, Turkey absolutely cannot tolerate Ukraine's early insertion into the EU. Moreover, Ukraine is not yet a member of nato, which is more difficult to join.
9. The Russian factor, the opposition component is large, listen to its words and deeds.
10. The American factor, the unclear claim, the process control, everything is under control.
Ukraine's accession to the European Union may be difficult to achieve in ten years, have I said too much?
The geographical relations of Ukraine
Joining the European Union is the first step, and the pedometer cannot go wrong
Expedient, face project?