I think half a month at most is basically over. Because according to the results of the current Russian actions, some important military positions in Ukraine have basically been destroyed, Russian troops have entered the Ukrainian capital Kiev, and Ukraine basically has no ability to fight back. If Russia really wants to do anything to Ukraine, I feel fully capable of taking it down within a week. But at present, whether Russia will fully Ukraine, no one knows, at present, Russia has only taken action in two regions in eastern Ukraine, and there are also some local actions in other locations in Ukraine. The reason why Russia has taken these actions can be said to be forced, their real purpose is not to defeat Ukraine, but to teach NATO and Ukraine a lesson.
Russia has come to this step today, in fact, it is also forced, after all, the enemy has been placed at its own doorstep, if you do not take the initiative to attack, you will not even have the opportunity to counterattack in the future. This matter has to be traced back to Ukraine's plan to join NATO, in 2019, Ukraine passed a constitutional amendment, the Ukrainian accession to the European Union and NATO as the country's basic policy into the constitution. Ukraine's accession to NATO can be said to be a very challenging act for Russia, you can see from the map, some countries around Russia's western region have almost all joined NATO, if Ukraine joins NATO, it is equivalent to NATO has formed a dumpling for Russia.
At that time, some of NATO's advanced forces can even be stationed in Ukraine, and this strike capability against Russia will increase significantly, and the potential threat to Russia will also increase significantly. For this kind of plan in Ukraine, Russia has always warned Ukraine and NATO not to play with fire, but they still did not follow Russia's advice, but insisted on going their own way, which led to the situation in Ukraine today. In this context, Russia can only take the initiative to attack, the first attack is strong, of course, Russia is not really to bring Ukraine into the Russian territory, its real purpose is to warn Ukraine and NATO, you do not play with fire.
Moreover, Russian leaders have repeatedly said that Russia is willing to accept those sincere and good-faith negotiations and return things to the track of peace. But the premise is that Russia's national security and the interests of the people are non-negotiable, which is the bottom line. If Ukraine is soft in the future and NATO's attitude improves, perhaps Russia will stop acting.
Since the Cold War, Europe and the United States have never given up the attack on Russia, they have always regarded Russia as the biggest threat, so many actions and deployments are actually aimed at Russia. This Cold War mentality is unlikely to change in the short term, and even if future wars in Ukraine are alleviated, some conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, as well as between Europe and the United States, are inevitable.
As long as Russia is one of the strongest countries in the world, it is impossible for Europe and the United States to give up isolating and attacking Russia. So in the long run, a war without smoke of war will last a long time, and no one knows when it will end.